The 2016 CNN Poll: Why do Republicans care about the economy, the economy and the economy? Preferences among registered voters in competitive congressional districts
The race for president is very close with 50% of likely voters going for the Democratic candidate and 45% for the Republican. But in competitive congressional districts, Democratic support among likely voters dips and preferences tilt toward the Republicans: 48% of likely voters in that group prefer the Republican candidate, 43% the Democrat.
Republican registered voters nationwide and in competitive congressional districts are a bit more likely to say they are deeply motivated to vote than are Democratic registered voters (52% extremely motivated among Republicans nationally, 46% among Democrats; in competitive districts, it’s 55% among Republicans vs. 45% among Democrats).
Some Democratic candidates have advantages. Registered voters nationwide are more likely to see local Democratic candidates than their Republican rivals as caring about people like them (40% to 34%), working to protect democracy (43% to 36%), and uniting the country rather than dividing it (37% to 31%). Republican candidates are more likely to be too extreme than Democratic ones.
The economy: A slim plurality of voters, about 31%, called inflation their top issue, and roughly 8 in 10 said inflation had been a hardship for them personally. The voters said they trusted the GOP over the Democrats to handle inflation.
Although results from the same poll released Wednesday revealed that views of the economy remain sharply negative, those figures have rebounded somewhat from summer lows. Democrats and independents no longer consider the economy or inflation to be important issues. As that shift has occurred, the wide gaps in issue priorities by party that have been consistent across polling this year have grown.
It is not uncommon for former President Donald Trump to get a more partisan reaction, and it is possible that Democrats may benefit from this in competitive districts. More than two thirds of voters say that they are voting to send a message of opposition to Trump while 20% say that they will send a message of support. Democrats in competitive districts will be voting to express opposition to the former President while Republicans will be voting to support him.
The new CNN Poll was conducted with a random nationwide sample of 1,988 adults and included 1,578 registered voters and 1,198 likely voters. Surveys were either conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. The full sample results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points and it is 3.5 points among registered voters. The 50 competitive congressional districts are chosen based on public race ratings at the time the sample was chosen. Results among the 540 registered voters in that sample have an error margin of plus or minus 5.4 points; it is 5.6 points among the 484 likely voters. The subset was weighted to account for the entire adult population of the United States.
Here’s the thing about elections: When they break, they usually break in one direction. The indicators on my political dashboard are red for Republicans at the moment.
Why the GOP hasn’t won a Republican Presidential Prelection since February 6, 2006? (Alice Stewart’s View on the CNN Sensitivity to the Economy
First, there’s inflation. The Biden administration thought that it would have gone away by now, but it didn’t, as the Federal Reserve isn’t easy to work with. Americans are being squeezed between exorbitant prices for consumer goods — inflation is still at 40-year highs — and interest rates that the Fed has ratcheted up as it seeks to rein in those prices. The 30-year mortgage rate has rocketed past 6 percent and is currently faced by anyone trying to buy a home.
The latest New York Times/Siena poll, my colleague Nate Cohn wrote this week, suggests that “the conditions that helped Democrats gain over the summer no longer seem to be in place,” with voters’ sour view of the economy driving the downturn in the party’s prospects.
Alice Stewart is a CNN political commentator and board member at the John F. Kennedy Institute of Politics. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. Read more opinion on CNN.
The GOP will win back the Senate and House due to listening to voters and offering solutions. Democrats have been tone deaf when it comes to the real issues impacting Americans, choosing to focus on threats to democracy over everyday concerns about the cost of groceries and gas. This election is about the basic need for families, not the fears of a fallen Democracy.
While President Biden has promised to restore the “soul of our nation,” many voters are more concerned about their finances. With Biden’s approval ratings in the low 40s, it’s clear voters feel the President is out of touch with their everyday struggles. Grandiose rhetoric about democracy falls flat when the economy has come close to flatlining.
The January 6 attack on the US Capitol was wrong, as I said previously, and there is no widespread voter fraud in the country, Joe Biden is our duly elected president and the January 6 attack on the US Capitol was wrong. Those who believe otherwise should face some level of scrutiny. People who live in flyover states can’t afford the luxury of casting a ballot because they have to feed their family.
What Can the GOP Do About Inflation? A Closing Argument by Sen. Rick Scott of Florida’s NRCC Chairman: The Case of Kevin McCarthy
Republican candidates want to focus on issues that are important to voters, like lowering prices of food and fuel, keeping communities safe and investing in education.
Sen. Rick Scott of Florida, the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, made a closing argument on Friday for what a Republican Congress would do about inflation. He said: “Step one, we’ve got to do in government what families do. You live within your means. We need to find a way to produce energy safely in this country.
The GOP plan to fight inflation was outlined by Kevin McCarthy. His plan includes curbing wasteful government spending, implementing pro-growth tax policies, and making America energy independent to reduce gas prices. McCarthy also outlined a plan to address safety by supporting law enforcement and securing the border to combat illegal immigration.
The GOP will regain the House and Senate according to the polls. The gap between the Republican candidates and their opponents is closing. I suspect this is due to the Republicans’ focus on the issues that are top of mind for voters.
The Last Three Years: Herschel Walker, Joe Biden, and Raphael Warnock: The Democratic Legacy of the 1994 Florida Midterm Elections
In Georgia, Republican candidate Herschel Walker is in a dead heat with incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. Walker’s closing ad addresses “massive inflation” and concerns about crime under the current administration. He told the Washington Examiner that the lives of Georgians have been made worse by the deaths of Joe Biden and Raphael Warnock.
In the final debate in New Hampshire, Dan Bolduc paid attention to the issues of eating and heating that affect Granite State voters.
The current election year is reminiscent of the 1990s, and I see it as repeating itself. In their book, “Storming the Gates: Protest Politics and the Republican Revival,” Washington Post columnist Dan Balz and CNN Analyst Ron Brownstein wrote about the so called “Republican Revolution” that emerged in the 1994 midterm elections during Democratic President Bill Clinton’s first term. The GOP won control of both chambers of Congress for the first time in 40 years, picking up 54 seats in the House and eight seats in the Senate.
Inflation, crime waves, reproductive rights, and border battles are the things we have today. Every issue has an anxiety for voters and elected officials.
Only 42% of voters approve of Biden, with 45% disapproving and 55% not approving, according to his current approval rating. If you asked voters if their vote was meant to oppose the president, they would say Biden’s policies hurt the country and that was more likely than the vote being for him.
27% of voters say abortion is their top issue after the Supreme Court legalized the procedure. About 6 in 10 voters felt negatively about the decision, with nearly 4 in 10 expressing anger. Democrats had a 11 point edge over the GOP when it came to which party voters wanted to deal with abortion issues.
Democrats win over Biden skeptics: Some voters who were dissatisfied with the Democratic president might have voted for a Democratic candidate. In New Hampshire, the Democratic incumbent won all but a small amount of voters who disapproved of Biden, as well as all those who approved of her.
CNN Exit Polls: Bridges between the gubernatorial races in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and how they helped voters in Washington County, Pennsylvania
CNN Exit Polls are a combination of in-person interviews with Election Day voters and in-person interviews, telephone and online polls measuring the views of early and absentee by-mail voters. They were conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. Read more here.
Two Democrats who won their gubernatorial races in two swing states delivered similar messages to their national party on Sunday, saying their focus on kitchen table issues helped them get their wins.
“I can tell you we stayed focused on the fundamentals, right, whether it’s fixing the damn roads or making sure our kids are back on track after an incredible disruption in their learning, or just simply solving problems and being honest with the people,” Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer told CNN’s Dana Bash on “State of the Union.”
Meanwhile, Pennsylvania Gov.-elect Josh spoke to Bash about connecting with voters in rural, suburban and urban areas of the state in an interview on “State of the Union”. He said his campaign “spoke to them about practical things that would make their lives better.”
Shaprio, Pennsylvania’s attorney general, will defeat Republican Doug Mastriano, CNN has projected, in the open-seat race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf.
Mastriano is one of the many deniers of the 2020 presidential election who have lost their races. Dixon in Michigan has also made false claims about the 2020 election.
Some Democrats in swing states argued that the party should focus on the economy and not address global issues during the final weeks of the election.
A governor is not able to fix global inflation. But what we can do is take actions to keep more money in people’s pockets, protect our right to make our own decisions about our bodies,” Whitmer said. I think it is likely for voters all across the country that all of this was front-and-center for a lot of Michigan voters.
He said that we ignored the noise coming out of Washington, DC, and focused on the good people of Washington County, Pennsylvania, who he said help voters understand how to build bridge between the parties.
Democrats also secured a critical win in Pennsylvania with the election of Lt. Gov. John Fetterman to flip the open US Senate seat of retiring Republican Pat Toomey.