Vladimir Putin and the Forcible Annexation of the Crimea Peninsula from Ukranian: The Great War and the War of the Cold War
The statements show that Putin may be trying to expand the territory he can defend with nukes. Russia annexed four parts of Ukranian. Fink says Russia’s official policy is that it would only use nuclear weapons to defend its own territory:
After failing to take Kyiv due to fierce Ukrainian resistance, Russia seized broad swaths of southern Ukraine at the start of the invasion and captured the key Sea of Azov port of Mariupol in May after a nearly three-month siege. The four Ukrainian regions that were annexed by Putin in September had not been completely controlled by his forces. He annexed the Ukrainian peninsula of Simferopol.
Despite reports from the ground, Putin tried to claim that the referendums were indicative of the will of millions of people.
Many countries do not seePutin’s annexation of the Crimea Peninsula from Ukranian as a serious move for the world’s peace.
The Russian president framed the annexation as an attempt to fix what he sees as a great historical mistake that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Kortunov says that Putin could make a declaration of victory and then walk away. He needs a significant achievement on the ground to achieve this. Russia cannot simply get to where it was on the 24 February, say that it is fine. Our mission is accomplished. So we go home… …There should be something that can be presented to the public as a victory.”
Russia will now, despite the widespread international condemnation, forge ahead with its plans to fly its flag over some 100,000 square kilometers (38,600 square miles) of Ukrainian territory – the largest forcible annexation of land in Europe since 1945.
The Russian leader spoke in the chandeliered St. George’s Hall of the Grand Kremlin Palace — the same place where he declared in March 2014 that the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea was part of Russia.
Many of Mr. Putin’s cabinet ministers and Russian leaders of the occupied Ukrainian regions sat in the audience for his speech.
But beyond these most recent missile attacks lies a laundry list of horrors Putin has launched that only seems to have driven his nation further from the pack of civilized powers that he once sought so desperately to join.
He highlighted some of the Western military actions including the British Opium War in China in the 19th century and the firebombings of Germany and the Vietnam and Korean Wars.
Vladimir Putin’s comments on recent attacks in Ukraine and the consequences for the relationship between the Kremlin, the United States, and Russia
Putin has expressed interest in using nuclear weapons in response to what he saw as Western leaders’ inflammatory statements and an increase in advanced Western weapons. Putin would not be the first to use such weapons when a member of the Human Rights Council asked him. If Russia agreed not to use nuclear weapons first and then launched a nuclear strike, it would not be able to use them, he said.
Monday’s attacks, and further strikes throughout the week, were evidence of Russian President Vladimir Putin lashing out after a series of setbacks in the war that have put him under pressure domestically.
A celebration is taking place on Red Square. Official ratification of the decrees will happen next week, said Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman.
The moves follow staged referendums held in occupied territory during a war. Much of the provinces’ civilian populations has fled fighting since the war began in February, and people who did vote sometimes did so at gunpoint.
It could allow the Kremlin to declare victory when Russia has not done enough to stop the recent gains by Ukrainian forces in the two eastern regions.
The recent military drive for 300,000 troops isn’t going to reverse Putin’s battlefield losses, and is backfiring at home, putting him up a dangerous political tab.
A speech by Mr. Putin is expected, according to his spokesman. He is likely to downplay the challenges his military has in Ukraine. He will probably ignore worldwide denunciations of discredited referendums held in occupied Ukraine on joining Russia, where some were made to vote at gunpoint.
“The people made their choice,” said Putin in a signing ceremony at the Kremlin’s St. George hall. He said that the choice wouldn’t be betrayed by Russia.
Hill writes that Putin wants his negotiations with Biden and allies to be with them rather than with Ukraine. And that means recognizing what we have done on the ground in Ukraine.”
There was an evening concert and a rally outside the Kremlin with banners saying Russia and the new territories are together forever.
Sept. 27: Russia claimed that staged referendums in four occupied regions of Ukraine showed the people chose to join the Russian Federation. United Nations leaders and many countries called the process a sham and a violation of international law.
Biden said the United States wouldn’t recognize Russia’s claims on Ukraine territory. The referenda was a sham and the results were made in Moscow.
Putin, however, framed the decision as a historical justice following the breakup of the Soviet Union that had left Russian speakers separated from their homeland — and the West dictating world affairs according to its own rules.
The world rejected sham referendums Russia used to justify annexing four Ukrainian regions, and its military has been beaten back from key parts of the areas.
Legislative approval of the annexation, which is illegal under international law, is expected to be a formality, although it will take a couple of days. In recent years, there has been a decline in political dissent in Russia due to Putin’s control of both branches of the legislature.
As a result of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Russian government plans to deploy 300,000 additional troops to bolster its military campaign.
Paired with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s suggestion last month that Russia is ready to use its nuclear arsenal to protect its territory, it seems Russia now believes the sphere protected by its nuclear weapons includes these parts of Ukraine.
He knows he is in a bad spot but he doesn’t seem to know how small his space is, and it’s worrying that he might make good on his nuclear threats.
De Bretton-Gordon: It is all about scale – strategic nuclear weapons are basically Armageddon. Russia and the West (including the United States, Britain and France) both have almost 6,000 warheads each, according to the Federation of Nuclear Scientists, which is pretty much enough to change the planet as we know it. The acronym MAD stands for “Mutually Assured Destruction”.
The intercontinental missiles fitted with these warheads aim to key sites and cities in the US, UK, France and Russia.
Tactical nuclear weapons meanwhile are much smaller warheads with a yield, or explosive power, of up to 100 kilotons of dynamite – rather than roughly 1,000 kilotons for strategic warheads.
Nuclear weapons can create huge amounts of damage in a few minutes, but if fired at a nuclear power station, there could be a chain reaction that could cause a Chernobyl-like disaster.
Eric Gomez, senior fellow at the Cato Institute, says that Russia’s arsenal is akin to the US’s nuclear weapons program. Russia is very involved with the international and bilateral arms control treaties. They’re not an open book—no country is. Everyone still has certain secrets that they preserve. If you keep the satellite or aircraft sensors trained on key spots, you can catch it if it moves.
The tactical weapons are likely to be different. The warheads and missiles are probably in good condition, but the cars they are mounted on are not. Judging by the state of the rest of the Russian Army equipment on show in Ukraine, this is a fair assumption.
The Ukrainian military said 38 of the 84 cruise missiles that Moscow fired toward them were destroyed by missile defense systems. Twenty-four Russian attack drones were also used in the salvo, 13 of which were destroyed.
All these actions show Russia desperation to get the components it needs to make high-tech weaponry that has stopped because of western sanctions and embargos.
This move is focused on attacking civilians, not opposition forces. This manifests itself with attacks on hospitals, schools and ‘hazardous’ infrastructure, like chemical plants and nuclear power stations. If they get attacked, they can become chemical or nuclear weapons.
The Russian War in Syria: Where are we going? How much do we need to know? What will we have to do, where, when, when?
“Otherwise, Russia will just wait it out,” said Dougherty. After being pushed back in the Fall offensive, they have a smaller front to defend.
With meteorological conditions right now, it’s clear that all this would head west across Europe. This could be seen as an attack on NATO and trigger Article 5 – where an attack on one ally is considered an attack on all allies – which would allow NATO to strike directly back at Russia.
I do not think the use of strategic nuclear weapons is likely. This is a war nobody can win, and at the moment it does not seem likely that this regional conflict in Europe would lead to a global nuclear war which could destroy the planet for many generations.
I am sure the checks and balances are in place in the Kremlin, as they are at the White House and 10 Downing Street to make sure we are not plunged into global nuclear conflict on a whim.
I believe Putin’s tactical nuclear weapons are unusable. If their vehicles do work, they will be picked up by NATO and US intelligence as soon as they turn their engines on.
De Bretton-Gordon: I believe the Russians developed their unconventional warfare tactics in Syria. Russian forces entered Syria in 2015, bolstering the Assad regime. I do not believe Assad would still be in power had he not used chemical weapons.
The massive nerve agent attack on August 21, 2013 on Ghouta stopped the rebels overrunning Damascus. Multiple chlorine attacks ended the four-year siege of Aleppo.
It appears that Putin does not have any morals. Russia attacked hospitals and schools in Syria which it is repeating again in Ukraine. Unconventional warfare aims to break the will of civilians to resist, and Putin appears to be happy to use any means and weapons to achieve this.
The Russians seem to be following Soviet doctrine that allows commanders to use nuclear weapons to stave off a loss of territory.
The attempted annexation of four districts through the current sham referendums makes the likelihood of tactical use very high, if these places are attacked. Though one still expects that local commanders would defer to Putin first before pressing their own equivalent of a red button.
He believes it’s a reflection of how things were done in April when Alexander Dvornikov was appointed overall commander of the operations.
The time to call Putin the bluff, and why should we ask for his touch in a war? The case of Russian president Remy Kortunov
Even in an attack on a power station one assumes Putin would be involved, as the West would likely construe it as an improvised nuclear weapon and act accordingly.
This is the time to call Putin’s bluff. He is holding on to his hands, and we have to give him no chance to get his hold back. Russia’s forces are now so degraded that they are no match for NATO and we should now negotiate, with this in mind, from this position of strength.
Andrey Kortunov, who runs the Kremlin-backed Russian International Affairs Council in Moscow, sees it, too. He said that President Putin wants to end it as quickly as possible.
Many of the best and biggest names in virtually every field have left Russia. Writers, artists and journalists are some of the most creative technologists, scientists and engineers.
CNN is unable to verify the Russian figures, but the 40 kilometers (around 25 miles) traffic tailbacks at the border with Georgia, and the long lines at crossings into Kazakhstan and Finland, speak to the backlash and the strengthening perception that Putin is losing his fabled touch at reading Russia’s mood.
Kortunov said that he understands the public mood surrounding the huge costs and loss of life in war, even though he doesn’t know what goes on in the Kremlin. “Many people would start asking questions, why did we get into this mess? We lost a lot of people.
He used the same playbook annexing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and now, like then, threatens potential nuclear strikes should Ukraine, backed by its Western allies, try to take the annexed territories back.
The Russia-Russia War Between Feb. 24 and September 24: Putin’s message to Europe and his ally Russia can reach beyond Ukraine’s borders
The first exploded at around 2 a.m. local time, and then again at around 7 p.m.
The Danes and the Germans sent warships to protect the area after roiling patches of sea were discovered.
So far, at least four leaks in Russia’s Nord Stream pipelines 1 and 2 have been discovered, each at the surface resembling a boiling cauldron, the largest one kilometer across, and together spewing industrial quantities of toxic greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
Brennan’s analysis is that Russia is the most likely culprit for the sabotage, and that Putin is likely trying to send a message: “It’s a signal to Europe that Russia can reach beyond Ukraine’s borders. Who knows what he is going to do next.
Putin had shut down the first part of the Nord Stream 2, while Europe scrambled to replenish gas reserves in time for the winter and searched for replacement providers.
“The fact is that President Putin and Russia have shown absolutely no interest in any kind of meaningful diplomacy. And unless and until they do, it’s very hard to pursue it,” Blinken said.
According to Volker, Putin should tell France and Germany that the war needs to end, that they need to put pressure on the Ukrainians to settle, and that they need to protect their territories at all costs.
“Of course, it could be a lengthy process,” Putin said of the more than 9-month-old war that began with Russia’s invasion Feb. 24 and has displaced millions from their homes, and killed and wounded tens of thousands. Despite its length, he showed no signs of letting up, vowing to “consistently fight for our interests” and to “protect ourselves using all means available.” He said that the West’s responses to Russia’s security demands had been “only spit in the face” for years.
At his meeting, Putin discussed the mobilization of 300,000 reservists that he ordered in September to bolster forces in Ukraine. He said about 150,000 have been deployed so far in combat zones, with the rest still undergoing training. Addressing speculation that the Kremlin could be preparing another mobilization, Putin said: “There is no need for the Defense Ministry and the country to do that.”
Sept. 28: The officials from the Russian Federation made an appeal for the regions to join their country. Putin’s approval rating fell 6 points to 77% in a poll by the Levada Center. More than one billion dollars in additional security aid was announced by the U.S. Defense Department.
Oct. 2: Leaders of nine European countries made a joint statement in support of Ukraine joining NATO. Pope Francis made a strong appeal for Putin to end the war.
Past recaps are available here. For context and more in-depth stories, you can find more of NPR’s coverage here. Listen and subscribe to the State of Ukranian Podcast for news throughout the day.
In addition to Ukraine’s successes in the south, Kyiv’s forces made gains in Luhansk in the east with forces approaching the region from several directions, and over the weekend liberated the strategic city of Lyman, a key operational hub in Donetsk which the Russian army had used to funnel troops and supplies to the west and south.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said in an interview with CNN on Sunday that he believes Ukraine is “making progress” in Kherson, thanks in part to weapons supplied by Washington.
Austin said that there is a change in the battlefield dynamics. “They’ve done very, very well in the Kharkiv area and moved to take advantage of opportunities. The fight in the – the Kherson region’s going a bit slower, but they’re making progress.”
Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov, who spoke while the map was shown full-screen, did not mention the losses. He said that the Russian military destroyed the armor of the Ukrainian military and killed them in the area of several towns that are now believed to be under Ukrainian control.
The Ukraine Crisis: Putin and the Russia-Ukraine Confronting the Russian Regime in the War-Torn Regions of Ukraine
The contests have been widely panned as a farce that failed to meet internationally recognized standards of free and fair elections. Reports from the ground suggested that voting took place both essentially and literally at gunpoint.
Putin said he was “pleased” and “surprised” by the referendums’ results and claimed that the regions will now be stabilized and developed while “helping strengthen the country as a whole.”
A spokesman for the bloc said that EU member states summoned Russian ambassadors on Friday in order to condemn the actions of the Russians and demand that they stop.
A last-ditch effort by Mr Putin to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive is being thought of by many US officials. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity, because they were worried about how the discussions would be received.
Despite the fact that Russia’s military does not have complete control of the war-torn regions of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin thinks that they will be stable after signing legislation to annex them.
While Russian state television hailed Putin’s inking of the annexation process, pro-Kremlin pundits delivered rare dispatches on the growing setbacks faced by Moscow’s troops on the ground.
Russian troops have been forced to retreat from settlements in the south of the country where they were previously stationed, as Ukrainian forces advance towards the Russian-occupied city of Kherson.
In a bid to celebrate the news, Putin invited all the regions of Russia to a meeting, which he broadcast on TV, to wish them well for Teachers’ Day.
Amid the uncertainty, Russia and Ukraine on Wednesday also issued conflicting announcements over the management of Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Putin signed a decree to claim the plant, the largest complex of its kind in Europe, as under Russian state control; meanwhile the head of Energoatom, Ukraine’s state nuclear energy company, said that he was taking charge.
Zelensky and the Regrouping of the Russian Military in the Kherson Region: A Report on the U.S. Action in the Izium Wars
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky praised the military for their “fast and powerful advances” in his Tuesday evening address, before celebrating that “dozens of settlements have already been liberated” this week.
He said that all the people in the Kherson region were back.
Zelensky on Wednesday assembled his top military and security staff to consider plans for “further liberation of Ukrainian territories,” according to the readout of the meeting from the President’s office.
The Russian Defense Ministry said it was forced to cede Lyman or risk encirclement of its troops there, allowing Ukrainian forces to potentially use the city as a staging post to push troops further east.
Peskov was asked to clarify by CNN and he said that there was a legal wording in the decree. On the whole, of course, we are talking about the territory in which the military-civilian administration operated at the time of its adoption [as part of the Russian Federation].”
“The Russian army is conducting maneuvers,” Kirill Stremousov told Russian state news RIA Novosti. The current conditions allow us to gather strength and strike.
The phrase “regrouping” was also used by the Russian Defense Ministry in September to describe the retreat of the Russian military in response to Ukraine’s offensive that recaptured the key city of Izium, in the Kharkiv region.
“In the Kherson region, we have lost 17 settlements,” Alexander Sladkov, a leading Russian war correspondent, conceded on state TV Tuesday, before placing the blame on “fat” US weapons deliveries and “intelligence gathered via satellite reconnaissance.”
Alexander Kots, a correspondent for Komsomolskaya Pravda who is embedded with Russian forces in the occupied eastern city of Vatove, told Telegram followers that the military lacks the manpower to hold off a Ukrainian advance into the Luhan.
Russian troops were trying to fortify their defense at the line that connects the cities of Svatova and Kreminna. The Zherebets River, which runs just west of Svatova and can be reached by vehicle, was the location when Russian troops retreated to, according to a pro-Russian military blogger.
Is the enemy of Russia? Poddubnyy, 24, a regular reporter for Russia 24, in the eight month of the Special Operation
The intelligence data they use and high-precision weapons they use are all very easy to use. We are waiting for our reserve to become physically fit and join the battle.
Poddubnyy, a reporter for Russia 24, said Tuesday that for the time being, it will become even harder.
“This doesn’t mean that we’ve collapsed like a house of cards. These mistakes aren’t gigantic strategic failures. We are still learning. In our eighth month of the special operation, this is hard to hear. We are reporters. We are waiting for reinforcements.
He said it was as bad as getting hit on your melon. We’ve incurred some losses. It is war. And these kinds of things happen in war. [Reinforcements] are coming, along with their equipment. I don’t lie or engage in propaganda. I’m a regular reporter who is reporting the news.
Sladkov’s admission on State TV was his second in less than a month, after he previously admitted that Russian forces had endured heavy losses on September 13, a Tuesday. At the start of the interview, Sladkov joked about telling the truth on Tuesdays and not telling the truth for other days.
It’s also a commentary on the grave uncertainty over how Russian President Vladimir Putin, a self-styled strongman, might react to the increasing possibility of defeat in Ukraine in a war to which he has nailed his political survival.
Biden’s musings allow for a glimpse into his thinking as he tries to figure out how this crisis ends. He seems to have been wrestling over the very same questions about escalation and avoiding a moment of no return that President John Kennedy faced in 1962 in his game of nuclear poker.
“(For the) first time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have a direct threat of the use (of a) nuclear weapon if, in fact, things continue down the path they are going,” Biden said.
He said that in case of a potential threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, they will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to them. “This is not a bluff.”
Even though a press pool is allowed in for some remarks, presidents are often less guarded during political fundraising events which are not usually on camera. In a news conference, the President might not have made his nuclear comments in a more stark manner. And the White House has frequently walked back unscripted presidential remarks on foreign policy, especially on how the US would respond if China invaded Taiwan.
“I’m trying to figure out what is Putin’s off ramp,” Biden said. Where does he find a way out? Where does he find himself when he has lost face and significant power in Russia? Biden said something.
The president might have been thinking of Kennedy’s speech to a graduating class at American University in Washington in 1963, in which he spoke about risks and lessons learned from the Cuban missile crisis.
It would only be evidence of the bankruptness of our policy that we would adopt that kind of course.
With that in mind, Biden appeared to be making an argument, which Putin will now be sure to hear about, that the idea that the use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine could be contained and not lead to a wider conflagration is wrong.
The entire strategic logic between maintaining nuclear weapons for self-defense is that they are too terrible to be used, and any nation that did would be writing their own death warrant.
“I don’t think there’s any such thing as the ability to easily (use) a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon,” Biden said at the fundraiser.
His comments underscore the most important mission of his presidency – shepherding the world through the most dangerous nuclear brinkmanship in 60 years.
Editor’s Note: Peter Bergen is CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America, and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. Bergen is the author of “The Cost of Chaos: The Trump Administration and the World.” His views are his own in this commentary. View more opinion on CNN.
Vladimir Putin’s Special Operation in Ukraine: The First World War, the Russian Revolution, and the Russo-Japanese War
KYIV, Ukraine — Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged Wednesday that his “special military operation” in Ukraine is taking longer than expected but said it has succeeded in seizing new territory and added that his country’s nuclear weapons are deterring escalation of the conflict.
Putin’s problems have only deepened in recent days with the surging Ukrainian counteroffensive that has seized key pockets of Russian-controlled territory, such as the transportation hub city of Lyman.
(Indeed, his revisionist account defines his rationale for the war in Ukraine, which he asserts has historically always been part of Russia – even though Ukraine declared its independence from the Soviet Union more than three decades ago.)
When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in December 1979, they planned to install a puppet government and get out of the country as soon as it was feasible, as explained in a recent, authoritative book about the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, “Afghan Crucible” by historian Elisabeth Leake.
The US initially hesitated to escalate its support for the Afghan resistance in order to avoid a bigger conflict with the Soviet Union. The Afghans were given anti-aircraft missiles by the CIA in 1986 and the Soviets were forced to withdraw from Afghanistan three years later.
The US and the western alliance must look into the future as if Putin and the Russians have a chance at succeeding him. How long will the commitment to the fight persist?
“These air defense systems are making a difference because many of the incoming missiles [this week] were actually shot down by the Ukrainian air defense systems provided by NATO Allies,” he said.
The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was quickly caused by the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan two years earlier.
Looking further back into the history books, he must also know that the Russian loss in the Russo-Japanese war in 1905 weakened the Romanov monarchy. Czar Nicholas II’s feckless leadership during the First World War then precipitated the Russian Revolution in 1917. The Romanov family was killed by a Bolshevik firing squad.
In 1917 and 1991 the Russian empire was dissolved when the First World War ended and after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Russian Defense Minister Rejoinder for the Security Council Meeting on Saturday (Saturday, April 15): The Bridge between an Annexed Crimean Peninsula and the Kremlin
With that deal, which came to light only later, a disaster that could have killed tens of millions of Americans and untold numbers of Soviet citizens was averted.
The Security Council meetings are usually held on a weekly basis, according to the news agency. However, it comes just days after a major humiliation for the Russian President, when an explosion severely damaged parts of the road and rail bridge between annexed Crimea and the Russian Federation early Saturday.
And while the agenda has not been made public, the meeting comes at a strategic crossroads for the Kremlin, which must make a series of unenviable choices after Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has faltered after a month of military setbacks.
Some road traffic and train traffic are back on the bridge. On Saturday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said repair works on the bridge would be carried out around the clock, with a damage survey to be completed within a day and divers scheduled to check all the supports of the bridge.
The first passenger services crossed the bridge on Saturday from the peninsula to Krasnodar Krai in Russia, according to the Ministry of Transport.
The deputy prime minister of Russia said on Sunday that car traffic on the bridge had resumed in two lanes. He said that traffic had begun along two lanes of the bridge and that one lane was being used for cars to travel in alternate directions. Since the blast, heavy trucks, vans and buses have traveled by ferry.
Although the bridge which was constructed in response to Moscow’s annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula is regarded as illegal by the West, Kyiv did not claim responsibility for the blast. The crossing was opened by Putin himself in 2018, and Ukrainian reaction to the explosion has been gleeful and triumphant.
The Russian Federation has critical civilian infrastructure, and if the bridge attack is successful, it could lead to an activation of Russia’s nuclear doctrine.
Power outages after missile attacks in Luhansk, Ukraine, the day after the first Ukrainian missile attack in the last 20 million years – Ukrainian prime minister Vladimir Putin and emergency services
Photographs of Ukrainian soldiers outside the village of Luhansk are acknowledged by Hayday.
Authorities in Sumy, in the northeast of Ukraine, said there were power outages across the region after missile attacks, reporting that “two missiles hit an infrastructure facility” in Konotop. Officials in Kharkiv also reported attacks.
“It is simply impossible to leave such crimes unanswered,” Putin said in a brief television appearance on Monday. “If attempts to carry out terrorist attacks on our territory continue, responses from Russia will be tough and will correspond in scale to the level of threats to the Russian Federation.”
On Monday morning, the underground stations in the subway system were used as a shelter. The air raid alert in the city was lifted at lunchtime as rescue workers attempted to get people out of the rubble.
Demys Shmygal, Ukraine’s Prime Minister, said Monday that as of 11 a.m. local time, a total of 11 “crucial infrastructure facilities” in eight regions had been damaged.
As of Monday afternoon, the electricity supply had been cut in Lviv, Poltava, Sumy, and Ternopil, said the Ukrainian State Emergency Services. There was partial interruption of the electricity in the country.
Ukraine has become a dirty place: Putin’s carpet bombing is the cause of Ukraine’s crisis, and the Netherlands condemns it
The Russian-appointed head of annexed Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, said he had “good news” Monday, claiming that Russia’s approaches to what it calls its special military operation in Ukraine “have changed.”
“I have been saying from the first day of the special military operation that if such actions to destroy the enemy’s infrastructure had been taken every day, we would have finished everything in May and the Kyiv regime would have been defeated,” he added.
The cause of this action was actually Putin’s carpet bombing of Ukrainian infrastructure. This is part of Putin’s misguided and likely futile effort to hammer the nation into submission as winter looms, and a hail of rockets designed to hit critical civilian infrastructure as winter looms.
“All over Ukraine, the air raid sirens will not abate. The missiles continue to strike. Unfortunately, there are dead and wounded. I want you to stay in your shelters. Stay safe and take care of your families. Zelensky said to hang in there and be strong.
Following the strikes, the EU Foreign Policy Chief commented that there would be additional military support from the EU.
“Again, Putin is massively terrorizing innocent civilians in Kyiv and other cities,” Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said. “[The Netherlands] condemns these heinous acts. Putin doesn’t seem to know that the will of the Ukrainian people is sacrosanct.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the attacks “another unacceptable escalation of the war and, as always, civilians are paying the highest price.”
CNN Live coverage of the Kerch Straight Attack on Monday, April 17. More than a day after the attack, Ukrainian President Denys Shmyhal was killed by four missiles and five kamikaze drones
Zelensky said on social media that he would address a meeting of the G7 group of nations in a video conference on Tuesday.
Michael Bociurkiw is a global affairs analyst. He is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former spokesperson for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. He is a regular contributor to CNN Opinion. His own opinions are expressed in this commentary. CNN has more opinion.
There was no shortage of fear after a massive explosion hit the hugely strategic and symbolic Kerch Straight bridge over the weekend.
The strikes occurred as people were getting ready to work. A friend in Kyiv texted me that she had just exited a bridge span 10 minutes before it was struck.
As of midday local time, the area around my office in Odesa remained eerily quiet in between air raid sirens, with reports that three missiles and five kamikaze drones were shot down. At this time of the day, nearby restaurants would be filled with customers, and chatter of upcoming weddings and parties.
Monday’s attacks also came just a few hours after Zaporizhzhia, a southeastern city close to the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, was hit by multiple strikes on apartment buildings, mostly while people slept. At least 17 people were killed and several dozens injured.
President Zelensky said that many of the 100 or so missile strikes across Ukraine appeared to be directed at the country’s energy infrastructure. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated that at least 11 important infrastructure facilities were damaged and some provinces were without power.
The early days of the war when Russian forces were close to the capital, and some of the scenes depicted, were reminiscent of today. In one metro station serving as a shelter, large numbers of people took cover on platforms as a small group sang patriotic Ukrainian songs.
Indeed, millions of people in cities across Ukraine will be spending most of the day in bomb shelters, at the urging of officials, while businesses have been asked to shift work online as much as possible.
With many asylum seekers returning to their homes, the attacks can cause another blow to business confidence.
Momentum of Putin’s 2018 Kerch Bridge Explosion: Bringing Ukraine to the Forgetting Reinforcement Learning Finale and Protecting Nuclear Infrastructure
Hardwiring newly claimed territory with expensive, record-breaking infrastructure projects seems to be a penchant of dictators. In 2018, Putin personally opened the Kerch bridge – Europe’s longest – by driving a truck across it. That same year, one of the first things Chinese President Xi Jinping did after Beijing reclaimed Macau and Hong Kong was to connect the former Portuguese and British territories with the world’s longest sea crossing bridge. The $20 billion, 34-mile road bridge opened after about two years of delays.
The reaction among Ukrainians to the explosion was instantaneous: humorous memes lit up social media channels like a Christmas tree. Many people shared their jubilation through text messages.
For Putin, consumed by pride and self-interest, sitting still was never an option. He responded in a way that he knows how to do, unleashing more death and destruction, which is what a former KGB agent would do.
It was also an act of selfish desperation: facing increasing criticism at home, including on state-controlled television, has placed Putin on unusually thin ice.
Before Monday’s strikes, the Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate at Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, had told Ukrainian journalist Roman Kravets in late August that, “by the end of the year at the minimum we have to enter Crimea” – suggesting a plan to push back Russian forces to pre-2014 lines, which is massively supported by Ukrainians I’ve spoken to.
What is crucially important now is for Washington and other allies to use urgent telephone diplomacy to urge China and India – which presumably still have some leverage over Putin – to resist the urge to use even more deadly weapons.
The best thing for the West to show right now is resolve and unity, as a man who probes for weaknesses and exploits divisions is the most important thing. Western governments need to know that they don’t have a effect on Putin’s actions. Even if it means sending military experts closer to the battlefield to speed up the integration of high technology weapons, they have to continue to arm Ukrainians and provide urgent training.
Furthermore, high tech defense systems are needed to protect Kyiv and crucial energy infrastructure around the country. With winter just around the corner, the need to protect heating systems is urgent.
Belarus vs. Ukraine: The First Year of the War and a Plane for the Future of the Russian-Ukrainian War
The time has also come for the West to further isolate Russia with trade and travel restrictions – but for that to have sufficient impact, Turkey and Gulf states, which receive many Russian tourists, need to be pressured to come on board.
Russia massed tens of thousands of troops in Belarus before its February invasion and used Belarusian territory as a staging ground for its initial, unsuccessful assault on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. Moscow still has hundreds of troops in Belarus, from which it launches missiles and bombing raids, but their number is now expected to increase sharply.
“This won’t be just a thousand troops,” Mr. Lukashenko told senior military and security officials in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, after a meeting over the weekend with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in St. Petersburg.
Mr. Lukashenko said that work was about to begin on a group of troops to counter a possible aggression by NATO and Ukraine, according to Belta.
Statements by Mr. Lukashenko, an eccentric and highly erratic dictator, are rarely an accurate guide to current or future events. He categorically denied that his territory was to be used to attack southern neighbor Ukraine when Russian troops were in his country.
Mr. Sannikov was a deputy foreign minister under Mr. Lukashenko and fled into exile after being jailed.
On Monday, state television not only reported on the suffering, but also flaunted it. It showed plumes of smoke and carnage in central Kyiv, along with empty store shelves and a long-range forecast promising months of freezing temperatures there.
With the cold months approaching and likely bringing a stop to ground combat, experts say the next weeks of the war are now important and another spike in intensity looms over Ukraine as each side seeks to strike another blow.
For the first time in the war, it is close to an unpredictable new phase. Keir Giles is a senior consultant at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme and he said this is the third, fourth or fifth war they’ve observed.
“What seemed a distant prospect for anything that could be convincingly described as a Ukraine victory is now very much more plausible,” Giles said. The response from Russia is likely to get worse.
Oleksii Hromov, a senior Ukrainian military official, said last week that Kyiv’s forces have recaptured some 120 settlements since late September as they advance in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Kherson regions. On Wednesday, Ukraine said it had liberated more five settlements in its slow but steady push in Kherson.
These counter-offensives have shifted the momentum of the war and disproved a suggestion, built up in the West and in Russia during the summer, that while Ukraine could stoutly defend territory, it lacked the ability to seize ground.
“If they can get to Christmas with the frontline looking roughly as it is, that’s a huge success for the Russians given how botched this has been since February.”
The full impact of rising energy prices is felt around Europe and a major blow in the battlefield would cause another powerful signal.
There are many reasons why Ukraine gets things done quickly. Ukraine and its Western backers are always going to face a test of resilience when the winter energy crisis in Europe occurs and the infrastructure and power in Ukraine is destroyed.
Ukrainian national electricity company Ukrenergo said it had mitigated the impact of Russian missile attacks on the power supply in the central regions of the country. The Prime Minister of the country warned that there was a lot of work to be done, and asked Ukrainians to cut down on their energy usage during peak hours.
Experts believe Russia will not form a recurring pattern of bombardment, although estimates of the military reserves of either army is not clear, and may not be able to keep it up.
“We know – and Russian commanders on the ground know – that their supplies and munitions are running out,” Jeremy Fleming, a UK’s spy chief, said in a rare speech on Tuesday.
Russia may not be able to disrupt ongoing counter-offensives by the Ukranian because of its limited supply of precision weapons.
According to a military expert with the London-based Royal United Services Institute, the success rates of Ukrainian intercepts of Russian cruise missiles have risen since the beginning of the invasion in February.
The missile strikes will be reserved for shows of extreme outrage, because the Russians don’t have enough precision munitions to maintain that level of attack in the future.
The effect of such an intervention in terms of pure manpower would be limited, as Belarus has around 45,000 active duty troops. It would threaten another assault on the northern flank of the country.
“The reopening of a northern front would be another new challenge for Ukraine,” Giles said. It would provide Russia with a new route into the area that has been regained by the Ukrainians, according to him.
The Ukrainian president has achieved one of his objectives by flipping thenarrative of the conflict over the past two months, showing that military aid can help win the war.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that Ukraine needed “more” systems to better halt missile attacks, ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels.
The IRIS-T arrived this week from Germany and the NASAMS is expected from the U.S., Bronk said.
Sergey Surovikin, the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Origin of Russia’s Operations in Syria
After Ukraine recently captured more territory than Russia did, Russia’sMinistry of Defense made a change to its overall commander for operations in the war.
Notably, he previously played an instrumental role in Russia’s operations in Syria – during which Russian combat aircraft caused widespread devastation in rebel-held areas – as Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
Surovikin is “more familiar with cruise missiles, maybe he used his connections and experience to organize this chain of devastating attacks,” Irisov said, referencing the reports that cruise missiles have been among the weapons deployed by Russia in this latest surge of attacks.
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Russian Armed Forces service personnel who took part in operations in Syria, including Sergey Surovikin, at the Kremlin on December 28, 2017.
Irisov believes there are three reasons why he has been put in charge in Ukraine now: his closeness to the government and Putin; his interbranch experience with both the infantry and air force; and his experience since the summer commanding Russian forces in the southern Ukrainian regions of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Crimea. These are areas that Putin is trying to control “at any cost,” said Irisov.
“Everything changed” on February 24, 2022, when Putin’s invasion of Ukraine began and TASS received orders from the FSB security service and defense ministry “that everyone will be prosecuted if they don’t execute the propaganda scheme,” Irisov said.
It was obvious from the beginning, according to Irisov. “I tried to explain to people this war will lead to the collapse of Russia… it will be a great tragedy not only for Ukrainians but also for Russia.”
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/15/europe/russian-general-surovikin-profile-intl-cmd/index.html
Sergey Surovikin: A soldier with a tough nationalist face in Russia and a role model for the development of civilian aviation safety and air traffic control
While serving at Latakia air base in Syria in 2019 and 2020, the 31-year-old says he worked on aviation safety and air traffic control, coordinating flights with Damascus’ civilian airlines. He says he saw Surovikin several times during some missions and spoke to high-ranking officers under him.
“He made a lot of people very angry – they hated him,” Irisov said, describing how the “direct” and “straight” general was disliked at headquarters because of the way he tried to implement his infantry experience into the air force.
Irisov says he understands Surovikin had strong connections with Kremlin-approved private military company the Wagner group, which has operated in Syria.
In 2004, according to Russian media accounts and at least two think tanks, he berated a subordinate so severely that the subordinate took his own life.
And a book by the think tank the Washington DC-based Jamestown Foundation says that during the unsuccessful coup attempt against former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev in August 1991, soldiers under Surovikin’s command killed three protesters, leading to Surovikin spending at least six months in prison.
The Human Rights Watch report said that he could be responsible for dozens of air and ground attacks on civilian objects and infrastructure in violation of the laws of war, during the Idlib offensive in Syria. According to HRW, the attacks killed at least 1,600 people and forced the displacement of an estimated 1.5 million people.
Vladimir Putin (left) toasts with then-Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev next to Sergey Surovikin after a ceremony to bestow state awards on military personnel who fought in Syria, on December 28, 2017.
In February this year, Surovikin was sanctioned by the European Union in his capacity as head of the Aerospace Forces “for actively supporting and implementing actions and policies that undermine and threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine as well as the stability or security in Ukraine.”
But Clark, from the ISW, suggests the general’s promotion is “more of a framing thing to inject new blood into the Russian command system” and “put on this tough nationalist face.”
His appointment “got widespread praise from various Russian military bloggers as well as Yevgeny (Prigozhin), who’s the financier of the Wagner Group,” Clark said.
“Similarly, he before then was a commander of one of the groupings of Russian forces and had sort of a master reputation in Syria much like Surovikin for brutality, earning this sort of name of the ‘butcher of Aleppo,’” Clark said.
He said that Dvornikov was going to turn things around and get the job done. It will not be possible for an individual commander to change how entwined Russian command and control is at this point in the war or the low morale of Russian forces.
According to Clark, “there isn’t a good Kremlin option if Surovikin doesn’t perform or if Putin decides that he is also not up to the task. There are not many other senior Russian officers and that will lead to a further degradation of the Russian war effort.
That isn’t to say mobilized forces won’t be used. If used in support roles, like drivers or refuelers, they might ease the burden on the remaining parts of Russia’s exhausted professional army. They could also fill out depleted units along the line of contact, cordon some areas and man checkpoints in the rear. They are unlikely to become a fighting force. There are signs of problems with discipline among soldiers who are mobilized.
In that case, Mr. Putin could lash out more broadly against Ukraine. If missile supplies hold out, the recent attacks on critical civilian infrastructure in Ukraine could be expanded into other parts of the country.
According to a report by the Federation of American Scientists, Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world and 1,000-2,000 tactical nuclear weapons. While the public often imagines tactical nukes as smaller weapons, Kristensen says the Russian arsenal is diverse. “They have a very wide range of explosive yields, going up to a couple of hundred of kilotons – so much more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb,” he says.
To a certain extent, that classic nuclear deterrence has been effective at containing the Ukraine war, says Olga Oliker, the Director of Europe and Central Asia for the International Crisis Group.
Fuhrsmann: The probability of Russia using nuclear weapons is low at the moment, I think. I might put it slightly higher than I would have in late February, when the when the conflict was first picking up, but I still think it’s relatively low.
For the use of a nuclear weapon to be shocking, “You really need to make it clear that you are willing to target civilians, and that means, to put it bluntly, killing a lot of people,” he says.
“I think the Russians would see a conventional attack on their nuclear capacity, as effectively a nuclear attack,” she says. Things could escalate further from there.
All of this is still very theoretical according to Oliker. She hopes that the two sides will still find a way to begin de-escalating the conflict.
She said that telling herself a story of how to get there requires a lot of leaps and jumps. The path to a global thermonuclear war has some jumps in it.
The Case for Survival: David Petraeus’s View of the Russia-Ukraine War and its Implications for the Security of the Cold War
“Even if President (Volodymyr) Zelenskyy stated that maybe we should negotiate to stop the punishment. I don’t believe he can do that now because of the conviction of the Ukrainian people.
Petraeus spoke at an annual conference in Sea Island, Ga., run by The Cipher Brief, which brings together members of the national security community — current and former — to stand back and look at the big picture on global security.
This conference was focused on China a year ago. The topic of Russia invading Ukraine was not brought up by anyone. But this time the theme was the war in Ukraine — where it’s headed, and how it might end.
A top Ukrainian official, Andriy Yermak, the chief of staff to President Zelenskyy, told the conference the conflict needs to end with a Ukrainian victory on the battlefield.
But Paul Kolbe, a former CIA officer who runs the Intelligence Project at Harvard’s Kennedy School, says the Russian leader is not looking for a way out of the conflict. He says that the opposite is true. “Putin’s ability to escalate is a function of his muscle memory,” said Kolbe. “There’s a lot of tricks he can still pull out to try to undermine morale in Ukraine and in the West.”
This annexation is a huge deal. According to Dmitri Alperovitch, who runs the think tank, Putin is betting on staying in Ukraine.
“That is essentially a metaphorical burning of bridges,” said Alperovitch. “This means that this war is likely to go on for a long time, as long as he is in power and has the resources to continue fighting.”
The winter will slow the pace of the war, but it isn’t expected to stop it. David Petraeus thinks the Ukrainians are in a better position on the battlefield. “The Ukrainians can knock on the door and be taken in and get warmed up and get a bowl of soup from their fellow citizens. And of course, they’re welcomed as liberators, whereas the Russian occupiers, the Ukrainians are trying to kill them,” he said.
At the Georgia conference, in a ballroom filled with experienced national security types, no one suggested the war was near an end. “Most wars end with some sort of negotiated solution, whether that comes out of stalemate or defeat, but I don’t see any prospects of talks in the near term,” said Paul Kolbe, the former CIA official.
This war began with a Russian invasion in 2014, he noted, and is now as intense as it’s ever been. Greg Myre is a correspondent for NPR. Follow him on social media.
I called Fuhrmann to find out if the new rhetoric had changed things or if Putin was rational and we knew what Russia could theoretically do with tactical nuclear weapons. We had a conversation that was edited for length.
Russia Nuclear Weapons Threat (What Matters): What Do Russian Soldiers Really Need to Know Before Leaving Crime? How Does Putin Use Nuclear Weapons to Cross the Line?
Ballots are counted by members of the electoral commission at a polling station on September 27th after the vote on joining Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine to Russia.
The person can be rational when making decisions that we think are risky or problematic. They are still considered to be a rational actor as long as they make those decisions using some means and calculation, including costs and benefits.
There was skepticism that Putin would use a nuclear weapon and cross the line. He needs to make it sound as if it is a response to a strike on the Russian homeland. Is there anything specifically with regard to that idea of a cost/benefit analysis that suggests it would be worth it for him to use nuclear weapons?
If we were talking about the use of a tactical nuclear weapon, it would be something that has a lower yield so it would result in fewer casualties and less radioactivity.
Russian soldiers walk to Red Square for a parade marking the 77thanniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/18/politics/russia-nuclear-weapons-threat-what-matters/index.html
What do you think about nuclear forces? A message to the West about nuclear detonations in the mid-of-nearby scenarios
FUHRMANN: More than using a nuclear weapon on the battlefield, what he might be more likely to do would be some kind of nuclear detonation in the middle of nowhere as a signal to tell the United States and the West, hey, back off. The scenario where I think the use of nukes would be most likely, is based on the way things have gone so far.
TheWOLF: You just made a distinction between a tactical nuclear weapon and a strategic nuclear weapon. It seems like you’re crossing a line no matter what kind of nuclear weapon you use.
But it’s also true that there’s huge variation in terms of the kinds of nuclear weapons and the damage that they can inflict, and I think that that variation is important.
WOLF: What would be the lasting environmental effect of even a tactical nuclear weapon? How long before people could go back to the area where one was used?
That’s FuHRMANN. That would depend on a lot of factors. It would depend on the size of the warhead. It would depend on how far above the ground it was detonated.
But there’s been no comparable bilateral arms control dealing with tactical nuclear weapons. They have a range of different tactical nuclear weapons. It depends on command and control procedures that are in place, but tactical nuclear weapons are more portable than strategic nuclear weapons. They’re designed for use on the battlefield and so they can be fired by a single soldier.
You could see that weapons were moving out of storage and to the frontlines. These things can be seen by US satellites. To my knowledge, we haven’t seen it yet.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/18/politics/russia-nuclear-weapons-threat-what-matters/index.html
The Russian nuclear threat: where are we going? What do we need now? Where do we stand? What can we really learn from Russia’s nuclear weapons?
FUHRMANN: The emphasis was on the strategic weapons because these were the big weapons that could destroy cities. I think it is normal to focus attention on those that are potentially the most destructive.
When the Cold War ended and the Soviet threat was dissipated, most of these weapons were dismantled or returned home. The US has nuclear weapons in Europe. Not many. Weapons that are military are not all that useful. Compared to Russia, the United States has at this point, fewer tactical nuclear weapons.
FUHRMANN: Some people in Washington think that the United States should have more smaller-yield weapons.
There were some generally more hawkish commentators and policy analysts who, even before the Ukraine war, were pushing the United States to develop these lower-yield nuclear weapons. And ironically those arguments will gain weight if Russia continues to make nuclear threats.
FuHRMANN: Nuclear weapons are used as invasion insurance and deterrents against major threats to national security. I don’t think they’re very useful for blackmail or political coercion.
WOLF: There was concern after 9/11 that one of the Russian tactical weapons could be used as a dirty bomb and that the Russian stockpile in particular could be penetrated. Is the threat still there, or are we not paying attention to it?
The United States, through its actions, influences that probability to a large degree. To the extent that the United States were to escalate its military involvement in the war, do anything to strike targets in Russia itself, do anything to put troops on the ground in an overt way and actually enter the conflict, all of those things would significantly increase the risk of nuclear escalation.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/18/politics/russia-nuclear-weapons-threat-what-matters/index.html
The Cold War Between Ukraine and the United States: A Counterexample to the U.S. Aided War on Nuclear Weapons
WOLF: At the same time, you’re starting to hear more and more lawmakers, in particular Republicans, questioning military aid to Ukraine at all. What is the right way to strike that balance?
I think there could be a line that countries walk up to in the future and that line seems to provide covert support to actors who are engaged in conflict with other nuclear powers.
The United States was covertly providing a lot of support to the mujahedeen fighting against the Soviets. The aid that has been given to Ukraine is similar. The Soviet Union was, for its part, doing things to provide aid in the Korean War.
According to the White House’s press secretary, the administration takes any nuclear weapons or nuclear saber-rattling very seriously. She added that there was no indication that Russia was about to use nuclear weapons, and that they did not see any reason to adjust their strategic nuclear posture.
Similarly, Jeremy Fleming, director of the UK’s GCHQ intelligence agency, said last week, “I would hope that we will see indicators if they started to go down that path.” He added that there would be a “good chance” of detecting Russian preparations.
Russia’s nuclear bombs are stored in military facilities and would need to be transported and loaded into either aircraft or launchers for deployment. The global community knows the location of the roughly 12 nuclear weapons storage facilities located around Russia, according to the head of the research organization Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces. The US and Russia worked together to improve the security of the repository between 2003 and 2012 as part of an initiative called Cooperative Threat Reduction.
Moscow, Ukraine, and the War Between Russia and the Nearby: The Sobyanin Report to the Washington Post-Newtonian Collider
Some regional officials — including the mayor of Moscow, Sergey Sobyanin — appeared to be taking pains to offer reassurances. “At present, no measures are being introduced to limit the normal rhythm of the city’s life,” Mr. Sobyanin wrote on his Telegram channel.
And despite the new power granted them by Mr. Putin, the regional governors of Kursk, Krasnodar and Voronezh said no entry or exit restrictions would be imposed.
But many Russians are sure to see a warning message in the martial law imposed in Ukraine, the first time that Moscow has declared martial law since World War II, analysts say.
“People are worried that they will soon close the borders, and the siloviki” — the strong men close to Mr. Putin in the Kremlin — “will do what they want,” Ms. Stanovaya said.
Three senior officials from the Middle East said that Russia has recently redeployed military hardware from Syria in order to demonstrate that it has lost influence abroad due to the invasion of Ukraine.
Editor’s Note: David A. Andelman, a contributor to CNN, twice winner of the Deadline Club Award, is a chevalier of the French Legion of Honor, author of “A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen” and blogs at Andelman Unleashed. He formerly was a correspondent for The New York Times and CBS News in Europe and Asia. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. CNN has more opinion.
He wants to distract his nation from the fact that he is losing badly on the battlefield and unable to achieve even the scaled back objectives of his invasion.
The European Union Prolonges War: Energy Prices, Popular Will, and Russia’s Implications for the Economy, the European Union, and the Kremlin
This ability to keep going depends on a host of variables – ranging from the availability of critical and affordable energy supplies for the coming winter, to the popular will across a broad range of nations with often conflicting priorities.
European Union powers agreed to control the prices of energy in the wee hours of Friday after the embargoes on Russian imports and the cutting of natural gas supplies by the Kremlin.
There is an emergency cap on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility as well as the ability for EU gas companies to form a cartel and buy gas on the international market.
While French President Emmanuel Macron waxed euphoric leaving the summit, which he described as having “maintained European unity,” he conceded that there was only a “clear mandate” for the European Commission to start working on a gas cap mechanism.
Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, is skeptical of price caps. Germany is worried that such caps will encourage higher consumption and may impose more burden on restricted supplies.
These divisions are all part of Putin’s fondest dream. Europe could prove to be the center of success for the Kremlin since it is the only region that could agree on essentials.
Germany and France are already at loggerheads on many of these issues. Though in an effort to reach some accommodation, Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have scheduled a conference call for Wednesday.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/opinions/putin-prolonge-war-ukraine-winter-andelman/index.html
Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, the United States, Russia and the U.S. Embassy in Washington Discussed by the Senate GOP Caucus
And now a new government has taken power in Italy. Giorgia Meloni was sworn in Saturday as Italy’s first woman prime minister and has attempted to brush aside the post-fascist aura of her party. One of her far-right coalition partners meanwhile, has expressed deep appreciation for Putin.
An audio recording was made of Berlusconi at a gathering of his party loyalists, praising Putin for sending him booze on his 86th birthday.
During the campaign, Matteo Salvini stated that he would not want the sanctions on Russia to harm those who impose them more than those hit by them.
At the same time, Poland and Hungary, longtime ultra-right-wing soulmates united against liberal policies of the EU that seemed calculated to reduce their influence, have now disagreed over Ukraine. Poland dislikes the policies of the populist leader in Hungary, Viktor Orban.
Similar forces seem to be at work in Washington where House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy, poised to become Speaker of the House if Republicans take control after next month’s elections, told an interviewer, “I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. They will not do it.
Meanwhile on Monday, the influential 30-member Congressional progressive caucus called on Biden to open talks with Russia on ending the conflict while its troops are still occupying vast stretches of the country and its missiles and drones are striking deep into the interior.
After facing a lot of criticism, caucus chair Mia Jacob email reporters with a clarification of their comments. secretary of state calls his Ukrainian counterpart to get the America’s support.
The US has proffered more than $60 billion in aid since Biden was in office, but only Republicans voted against the latest aid package.
The pressure is rising on Russia by the West. Last Thursday, the State Department released a detailed report on the impact of sanctions and export controls strangling the Russian military-industrial complex.
On the day before this report, the US announced that it had seized the property of a top Russian procurement agent and his agencies who were responsible for procuring US-origin technologies for Russians.
The Justice Department said that they had charged individuals and companies that were trying to smuggle high-tech equipment into Russia.
I Want to Live: The Russian Embassy in the Dnipro River after a Russian Forces Retortion Campaign against Kherson Decay
The initial news that Russian troops had left Kherson city was met with skepticism by the Ukrainian government, who had previously voiced concern that the withdrawal could be a ruse to lure Ukrainian forces into the city.
Under the “I Want to Live” program, the Defence Intelligence agency of Ukraine would guarantee the rights of abandoned Russian soldiers.
“Your commanders ordered you to dress in civilian clothes and try to flee Kherson independently. The Ukrainian statement said that you wouldn’t succeed.
Since early Friday morning, unconfirmed videos and photos have surfaced online of the Ukrainian flag being raised atop the Kherson city administration building and police headquarters, as well as jubilant locals in nearby villages celebrating liberation. Several videos appeared to show Ukrainians tearing down Russian billboards signs that read “Russia is Here Forever.”
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu received a proposal from the Russian military commander to withdraw his forces from Kherson.
The decision to withdraw to the eastern end of the Dnipro River was difficult but necessary to save the lives of military personnel and protect Russia’s combat capability, according to what the comments were staged to be.
The Defense Minister of Ukrainian stated that it would take a minimum of one week for the Russians to leave the city and that Moscow has 40,000 troops in the region.
Dmitry Peskov insisted that Russia still has a legal hold on the territory despite Kherson being abandoned to Ukrainian forces. “Here it is not possible to make any changes.” Peskov said.
The Antonivsky Bridge, a bridge crossing the Dnipro and the eradication of Ukranian lodestar mines
Zelenskyy and other officials and citizens shared videos on social media of people celebrating in the street. ZSU!” — the Ukrainian initials for the country’s armed forces.
The Antonivsky Bridge is the only road that crosses over the Dnipro. Satellite images released by Maxar Technologies showed that a portion of the bridge was sheared off.
The initial announcement drew skepticism from Ukraine’s government, which previously voiced concern that a troop withdrawal there could be a Kremlin ploy to lure Ukrainian forces into the city.
Polish and NATO leaders suspect that there was a Ukrainian anti-aircraft rocket that shot down the Russian missile that landed in Poland on Tuesday. The missile was not Ukrainian, according to President Zelensky.
Whatever the exact circumstances of the missile, one thing is clear. “Russia bears ultimate responsibility, as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg Wednesday.
The mines were planted by his forces in vast stretches of territory in Kherson from which they’ve recently withdrawn, like in Cambodia in the 70s. The de-mining experts of Cambodia were called in to help with the daunting task of eradication of lodestar mines in Ukranian in the year 2022. At the same time, Russian armies have also left behind evidence of unspeakable atrocities and torture, also reminiscent of the Khmer Rouge.
According to reports, the hotline and Telegram channel launched as a Ukrainian Military intelligence project called “I want to live” has taken off and booked about 3,500 calls in its first two months of activity.
The Russian War in Europe and the Challenges for the Security and Security of the Future Combat Air System – Mikhail Zygar’s Story
One leading Russian journalist, Mikhail Zygar, who has settled in Berlin after fleeing in March, told me last week that while he hoped this is not the case, he is prepared to accept the reality – like many of his countrymen, he may never be able to return to his homeland, to which he remains deeply attached.
Rumbling in the background is the West’s attempt to diversify away from Russian oil and natural gas in an effort to deprive the country of material resources to pursue this war. “We have understood and learnt our lesson that it was an unhealthy and unsustainable dependency, and we want reliable and forward-looking connections,” Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission told the G20 on Tuesday.
Moreover, Putin’s dream that this conflict, along with the enormous burden it has proven to be on Western countries, would only drive further wedges into the Western alliance are proving unfulfilled. On Monday, word began circulating in aerospace circles that the long-stalled joint French-German project for a next-generation jet fighter at the heart of the Future Combat Air System – Europe’s largest weapons program – was beginning to move forward.
Above all, Putin still does not appear to have learned that revenge is not an appropriate way to act on or off the battlefield and in the final analysis is most likely to isolate and weaken Russia, perhaps irreversibly.
The Russian army is on the defensive, largely on the defensive across hundreds of miles of battle lines, after nine months of war in eastern and southern Ukraine.
There are no real value to a truce, even if it is linked to negotiations. A truce gives Russia breathing room and is vital to its survival.
“The only thing a premature truce does is it allows both parties to re-arm,” Michael Kofman, director of Russian studies at the CNA think tank and a leading expert on the Russian military, told me in an interview.
Already, Russia is beginning to rearm, experts say. One of the most crucial aspects of the war wasmunition availability. It’s difficult to make them in a month if you burn through 9 million rounds. The issue is what are the production rate and what can be done about it. he added.
Kofman cited available information showing that the manufacture of munitions – which have been the staples of the exchanges so far along Ukrainian front lines – has gone from two, and in some factories to three, shifts a day in Russia. This suggests that if they have the component parts, then they wouldn’t be going to double and triple shifts.
Negotiating with the Russians: What will they do if the Cold War is over and the US is going to make a big difference?
“When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it. Milley said to snatch the moment, as chairman of US Joint Chief of Staff.
Petro Poroshenko told the Council on Foreign Relations that Ukrainians understand negotiations. Someone comes to your house and kills your wife, rapes your daughter, takes the first floor, and opens the second floor door to say ‘Alright, come here’. Let’s have a negotiation.’ What would be your reaction?”
“As well as giving the Russians time to regroup and rearm, importantly it would relieve the pressure on their forces at the moment,” General Mick Ryan, a fellow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told me in an email exchange. For the last nine months, they have been at it. Their forces are tired.
That’s “basically any big command post or ammo dump they pulled back beyond the 80-kilometer range,” he explained. And in many cases, just inside Russian territory – which Ukraine has given Washington assurances it would not target with rocket systems supplied by the US.
But at some point, they’ll also get tired of this war, he added. The Russian mindset may change to “we don’t have everything we wanted”. But we’ll have a big chunk of the Donbas and will annex that into Russia and we’ll hold onto Crimea. I believe that is kind of their bet right now.
At the same time, a truce would also allow the West to rebuild rapidly depleting arsenals that have been drained by materiel sent to Ukraine, even upgrade what’s been supplied.
With many people starting to wish that the war was over, there is a question about whether the US and its allies will be prepared to come back in months or years.
The Great Power of the Sea of Azov: A Primer’s View of Russia and the Status of the Embarcation Process in Ukraine
Speaking in a televised meeting in Russia with members of his Human Rights Council, Putin described the land gains as “a significant result for Russia,” noting that the Sea of Azov “has become Russia’s internal sea.” “Peter the Great tried to get access to that body of water,” he said in a reference to a Russian leader.
If there is a nuclear attack on the area, it will not be the second that it is used, just because the possibility of doing so will be very limited.
Putin denied that his previous nuclear weapons comments amounted to saber-rattling, claiming that they were a factor of deterrence.
“We haven’t gone mad. We are fully aware of what nuclear weapons are,” Putin said. He said that they are more advanced and state-of-the-art than what any other nuclear power has.
In his televised remarks, the Russian leader didn’t address Russia’s battlefield setbacks or its attempts to cement control over the seized regions but acknowledged problems with supplies, treatment of wounded soldiers and limited desertions.
In the Kursk region bordering Ukraine, the governor posted photos of new concrete anti-tank barriers — known as “dragon’s teeth” — in open fields. On Tuesday, the governor had said a fire broke out at an airport in the region after a drone strike. In Belgorod, people were working on building anti-tank barriers and creating self-defense units. Belgorod has seen numerous fires and explosions, apparently from cross-border attacks, and its governor reported Wednesday that Russia’s air defenses have shot down incoming rockets.
In brazen drone attacks, two strategic Russian air bases more than 500 kilometers (300 miles) from the Ukraine border were struck Monday. Ukraine didn’t claim responsibility for being blamed by Moscow.
Moscow retaliated with strikes by multiple rocket launchers, missiles, tanks and mortars, which increased damage to the power grid. Ukrenergo said that the eastern areas where it was making repairs had temperatures as low as minus 17 degrees Celsius.