Russian Air Defense Systems After Ukraine’s Invasion: The Implications for Air Forces and the Defence Forces of the Cold War
Drones have played a significant role in the conflict since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February, but their use has increased since Moscow acquired the new drones from Iran over the summer.
As Ukraine races to shore up its missile defenses in the wake of the assault, the math for Moscow is simple: A percentage of projectiles are bound to get through.
The biggest unknown is the extent to which Russia will resort to older, less accurate but equally powerful missiles because of the reduction in inventories.
Some of the inventory was dispatched this week. Russia has been using more older and less precise missiles, which it still has large inventories of, according to Western officials. They are designed to take out aircraft carriers. Dozens of people were injured at a shopping mall in the month of June.
The Russians have also been adapting the S-300 – normally an air defense missile – as an offensive weapon, with some effect. These have wrought devastation in Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv, among other places, and their speed makes them difficult to intercept. They are not accurate.
Significant damage has been done by this week’s missile attacks. Around 30 percent of the country’s energy infrastructure has been hit by Russian missiles since Monday, according to the energy minister.
He told CNN’s Richard Quest that this was the “first time from the beginning of the war” that Russia has “dramatically targeted” energy infrastructure.
The Ukrainians have had plenty of practice in using limited air defense systems over the past nine months. The systems that do not last forever may be lost in combat operations, said the Air Force Command spokesman.
US officials said in August that Russia was training its forces how to use the drones. According to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russia has ordered 2,400 Shahed-136 drones from Iran.
Ukraine’s allies understand this need. After Russia attacked the civilian population of the Ukrainians, the US will be looking at air defense options, said General Mark Milley, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Missiles for their existing systems and a transition to Western-origin layered air defense system were some of the items on Ukraine’s wish-list.
He said the system would not control the airspace over Ukranian but were designed to make sure the priority targets were protected. What you’re looking at really is short-range low-altitude systems and then medium-range medium altitude and then long-range and high altitude systems, and it’s a mix of all of these.”
Western systems are starting to trickle in. According to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, a new era of air defense has begun with the arrival of the first IRIS-T from Germany and two units of the US National Advanced Surface to Air Missile System expected soon.
These are not off-the-shelf. The maker of the IRIS-T had to make it for Ukraine. Western governments don’t have a lot of such systems. And Ukraine is a very large country under missile attack from three directions.
The Ubiquitous Drone Problem in Ukraine and the Security Status of the Mid-Area Air Defense Mission in the Near-Infrared
Ukraine’s senior military commander, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, tweeted Tuesday his thanks to Poland as “brothers in arms” for training an air defense battalion that had destroyed nine of 11 Shaheeds.
He said Poland had given Ukraine “systems” to help destroy the drones. Last month there were reports that the Polish government had bought advanced Israeli equipment (Israel has a policy of not selling “advanced defensive technology” to Kyiv) and was then transferring it to Ukraine.
In the last few weeks, Moscow has been using Iranian-supplied drones in attacks againstUkraine and it is requesting more assistance from the West.
The name refers to the fact that the drones are disposable. The military drones that return home after hitting targets are larger and faster than the ones that are destroyed in the attack, because they are designed to hit behind enemy lines.
These larger surveillance drones can be expensive, so both Ukrainian and Russian forces have employed quadcopters — battery-powered commercial drones that are far cheaper. Small weapons like grenades can be dropped on enemy troops and vehicles by quadcopters. They are designed to be used after their batteries have been charged.
The Pentagon announced in March it would send 100 tactical drones called switchblades. The next month, the administration said it would provide another 300. The Department of Defense said that there would be 120 Phoenix Ghost drones going to Ukranian. In July, the United States provided funds for Ukraine to buy 580 more of them.
The Pentagon said in August that it would send drones with remote control to soldiers, which would be able to fly up to nine miles away. At altitudes of 500 feet, umas can be found.
NPR’s State of Ukraine: Breaking the U.N. Agreement to Protect Ukraine from Attacks on Russian Ships in the Black Sea
Anticipation is mounting for a possible battle for Kherson, a Russian-occupied city in southern Ukraine. Kremlin-installed officials have been evacuating civilians in preparation for a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Some Republicans in the United States warned that the party could limit funding forUkraine if it wins total control of the House of Representatives in the upcoming election.
Also Tuesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will host Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. Sweden must meet certain conditions in order to join NATO.
On Wednesday, the UN General Assembly is likely to discuss the International Atomic Energy Agency report and it’s likely that Ukraine will be on the agenda.
Russia rejoined a U.N.-brokered deal to safely export grain and other agricultural goods from Ukraine, on Nov. 2. The deal was suspended by Moscow after it was claimed that Ukraine had attacked its ships in the Black Sea.
The Pentagon will give $400 million to the Ukrainian government, which will include refurbished T-72 tanks and other equipment.
You can read the last recap here. Here you can find more NPR’s coverage for context and in-depth stories. You can get updates throughout the day by listening to NPR’s State of Ukraine.
U.S. Security Concerns Regarding the Missing Drones in the Era of the Cold War: A Defense Adviser
There are specific alterations that can be made to them that could make it more possible in the future. Those things are complex and take a long time.
A US official said that the Army is leading the efforts to figure out what changes can be made to the drone, which is called the MQ-1C in the Army.
“When you’re talking drones, this is about as good as you can get,” says Seth Jones, the director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “These are really sophisticated drones.”
In the case of the Gray Eagle, a US official argued, the concern is less about escalation than technological security: the potential for the pricey drones to go down in Ukraine and be recovered by the Russians.
“There’s still real interest in providing this particular system, provided we can make the necessary modifications and they are still useful to Ukraine on the battlefield,” the US official said.
Pentagon spokesman Colonel Roger Cabiness would not comment specifically on the Gray Eagle, saying only that the Department of Defense continues to consult with Ukraine on security assistance.
The US has been slow and reticent to give Ukraine more powerful missiles that would allow them to strike inside Russia and thus potentially be seen by Moscow as a significant increase in the conflict.
“These are very expensive systems and there are concerns that they could be shot down,” said the official, declining to say what parts of the drone would be most dangerous if they end up in Russian hands.
It’s a scenario that the US has recently been on the receiving end of. The US was able to look at the missing Iranian drones after they were shot down, the Washington Post reported.
The US official declined to elaborate on what technology on the Gray Eagle is the most sensitive but said they wouldn’t be considered escalatory since similar capabilities are being provided.
The technology in question likely centers on the imaging and intelligence-gathering capabilities and sensors, Jones from CSIS said, adding that he believes US fears are really rooted more in escalating the conflict with Russia.’
He said that they would fly pretty far back from the frontlines. “I don’t think you’d risk them up close and you wouldn’t need them up close because they can fire from a distance and they can collect [intelligence] from a distance.”
This isn’t the first time that modifications have been made to the US systems. The Wall Street Journal reported in March that the components were removed from the missile by simply taking out screws. That was enough for the US to be able to ship them out.
President Joe Biden said last week that he wasn’t looking for Ukraine to start bombing Russian territory.
Biden highlighted the fact that while the US has given Ukraine the highly-effective HIMARS mobile rocket systems, they have not been offered the longer-range munitions that go with those systems, which includes ATACMS.
Nor have fighter jets been sent to Ukraine by any NATO country, perhaps the most hotly debated part of any discussion over what weapons should be given to Ukraine.
Three people who have been in discussions about them say they are still being considered. Whether that means US warplanes or Soviet-origin fighters like the Mig-29 is a key part of the conversation. Poland could be asked to give Ukraine Mig-29s and backfill it with American jets.
Is it the case that we put escalatory measures in a bucket that would be accessible by Putin at some point? Someone who is familiar with the discussions asked. What level is in that bucket right now? And how much volume are you proposing adding to it? The US intelligence and defense officials are constantly trying to figure it out.