The 5th District: The Race for a Building Democratic Wave: The Case of VA-2 (D-Luria) Luria

Republicans need a net pickup of five seats to take control. And after redistricting, there are already seven Democratic-held seats where Republicans are favored, noted as either Likely Republican or Solid Republican, according to the Cook Political Report.

A building wave? The House may be a sign of where it’s going. There is a chance that the Republicans will hold onto the 10th District, where they are unlikely to keep Barbara Comstock in office. The national environment is better served by the 2nd District race, which is being waged by Republican Scott Taylor. If the GOP congressman in the 7th District loses, that could be a sign of a building Democratic wave.

VA-2 (D-Luria) Elaine Luria, who is on the January 6 committee, made democracy a part of her campaign. She’s used to challenging races, so she’s got another one on her hands against Kiggans. The district has changed hands four times in the last 15 years, and Republicans have won eight of the last 11 elections here. Kiggans has aligned herself with Republican Gov. Glenn Younkin, who cut an ad for her, campaigning on cutting inflation, prioritizing border security, getting “wokeism” out of education and pushing back “against Democrats’ efforts to defund or abolish our police departments.” A Kiggans win would definitely show a change for the district and House priorities.

VA-7 (D-Spanberger) Toss Up: Incumbent Abigail Spanberger (D) has outraised and outspent challenger Yesli Vega (R), though this remains a close and crucial election. Redistricting shifted this district bluer – Biden would have won the new district by about 7 points. The Republicans were in the district from 1971 to the election ofSpanberger in 2018), but they were defeated in the primary by David Brat. Spanberger hammered Vega for her stance on abortion, highlighting her bipartisan record. Vega, a law enforcement officer, has centered her campaign on cost of living and public safety. She also makes an appeal mixing Spanish and English in this district where about one-in-five voters is Latino.

NC-13 was newly created. Bo Hines is a former college football player who is running for a seat in the state legislature. The self-proclaimedMAGA Warrior, and supporter of Trump, has been criticized by another attorney for his lack of qualification. In order to get support,Nickel wants independents and moderate Republicans who disagree with Hines on abortion issues to support him.

OH-1 (R-Chabot) Toss Up: Republican incumbent Steve Chabot is facing a tough challenge from Democrat Greg Landsman, a member of the Cincinnati City Council. The district favored Trump over Biden by 3 points. In spite of the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago and the two impeachments, a long-timer House member stands firmly behind Trump. The CHIPS and Science Act and the bipartisan gun reform bill are two areas in his voting record that he supports. Democrats have hit Chabot in ads as “obsessed with banning abortion.” Republicans are focused on crime against Landsman.

IL-17 (D-Open) Toss Up: This race couldn’t be more of a contrast. The race features Democrat Eric Sorensen, an openly gay former local TV meteorologist who believes in “more science and less politics,” against Republican Esther Joy King. The GOP Nominee for this seat was an Army JAG corps veteran, named King. She is pro-life and has endorsed the Supreme Court’s decision. She’s made campaign issues about inflation and energy. The district leans towards Democrats and a victory by King could be an indication of things going Republicans’ way.

Maine’s 2nd District – Democratic Rep. Jared Golden and former Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin could see their race decided by the state’s ranked-choice voting system for a second time. Neither candidate nor independent Tiffany Bond had cleared 50% of the vote as of Sunday afternoon for a district that covers much of the state north of Portland. It would have been carried by Trump in 2020. Golden took the seat of Mr. Poliquin after votes were shifted under the ranked-choice system.

NH-1 (D-Pappas) Toss Up: The Democratic incumbent, Chris Pappas, is facing a right-wing Gen Z candidate in the election. The two remain neck and neck in terms of money raised. During the primary, establishment Republicans supported Leavitt’s opponent, but since her win, Republican House leaders have donated to her campaign.

PA-7 (D-Wild) Toss Up: Incumbent Susan Wild (D) is in a rematch with Lisa Scheller (R). The district has been redrawn with a redder district, so Scheller is hoping the second time is the charm. Wild has focused on health care, childcare, Scheller’s record on abortion and has attacked her for outsourcing jobs as a businesswoman. Scheller would like to open up Pennsylvania’s energy resources. Scheller has avoided commenting on whether she supports controversial GOP gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano.

Colorado’s 8th District has a Democratic and a Republican candidate vying for the seat. Biden would have carried it by less than 5 points in 2020. CNN has not made a projection, even though Kirkmeyer has conceded.

MI-7 (D-Newly created) Toss Up: This newly drawn district is about as evenly divided as it gets. It has a Democrat against a Republican. Inflation and jobs are key issues in this swing district. Barrett has had tough time defending his votes against tax incentives for auto companies to build new factories, as well as his position on abortion. Republicans have tried to tag Slotkin as a tax-and-spend Democrat in their ads, and the race has gotten in the mud with Barrett accusing Slotkin of “living with a lobbyist,” when Slotkin — and her husband — have been renting from the person.

NE-2 (R-Bacon) Toss Up: Republican Rep. Don Bacon is seeking a fourth term, after winning his last election by 4 points despite his district swinging for Biden. State Sen. Tony Vargas (D) has leaned into abortion and lowering prescription drug and medical care costs.

Democrat Jim Costa is vying for a 10th term against a veteran of the Navy. Biden would have carried this Central Valley seat by 20 points in 2020.

The purpose of the race is to maximize the power of Asian American voters, and Republican Rep. Steel and Democrat Jay Chen are competing for this seat. Biden would have won the seat by 6 points in 2020.

Suburban revolt? A slew of House seats are up for grabs in the 9 p.m. ET poll closings and, depending on which way states early in the night tilt, a Democratic House majority could come together based on poll closings in Colorado, Texas, Minnesota and a dozen more states.

Polls close at 6 p.m. ET in most of Indiana and Kentucky. Parts of both states are in the Central time zone, so it’ll take time to see whether Indiana Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly survives a challenge from Republican businessman Mike Braun.

The Florida Senate Race: A New Battleground for Republicans and Democratic Activists in the Pre-Republican Era of the Digital Age

It might not be a good bellwether. In an unusual twist, the race has largely become about whether or not McGrath is progressive for the district, instead of a referendum on the incumbent congressman. Republicans would be worried if Barr lost because it would be an indicator of the environment.

The 5th District in Virginia, which is home to an Air Force veteran and distillery owner, was competitive late in the cycle, with Democrats hoping for a win by a journalist, who lost elections in the past. If Democrats win, it would be a sign of a serious wave that could wipe out the Republicans.

If Democrats win in Atlanta, it would mean big changes in the political landscape. Lucy McBath, the mother of a black man who was killed in a noise-related dispute, will face Karen Handel in Georgia’s 6th District. And in the 7th District, Republicans are furious that Rep. Rob Woodall never took his race seriously. “If you don’t think it behooves you to put paid media on air, we’re not going to come help you. The Republican official said that they are not a welfare organization.

House battleground: Miami. South Florida is the site of two House battlegrounds. In the 26th District, GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo has run well to his party’s left on issues like climate change and immigration, and Republicans need him to survive. In the 27th District, what should be an easy Democratic pick-up has become daunting, as former Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala – the non-Spanish-speaking Democratic candidate in a majority Hispanic district – faces former Spanish-language broadcast journalist Maria Elvira Salazar.

History-makers. In Georgia, the governor’s race between Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp and a rising Democratic star who wants to become the nation’s first black female governor, is the center of attention. The race will proceed to a second round if neither candidate tops 50%.

We will have to wait an hour for full results in the Florida governor’s race between Andrew Gillum and Ron DeSantis, because of the small part of the Panhandle that is in Central time.

Democrats’ Senate must-wins. The Florida Senate contest, with Republican Gov. Rick Scott challenging Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson, is one of the nation’s most expensive and closely watched – and if Nelson loses, it would severely diminish Democrats’ shot at a majority.

A Midwestern state-level resurgence? Democratic former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau head Richard Cordray will try to win the governor’s office in Ohio, a state Trump won by 9 percentage points in 2016. He faces Republican state Attorney General Mike DeWine. The Democrats are hoping to reverse GOP gains in Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan.

Tennessee is one of Democrats’ best pick-up opportunities on the map. Phil knew that he could court moderate Republicans by working with Trump.

Missouri is one of the best pick-up opportunities for Republicans because of its Democratic Sen. McCaskill facing off against Republican state Attorney General Josh Hawley.

The most important hour for control of the house. The next House could start to take shape at this time. The two major battlegrounds are Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

In New Jersey, Democrats need to win at least two races with two of their strongest recruits of the cycle: the open 2nd District, where conservative Democratic state Sen. Jeff Van Drew is the heavy favorite, and the 11th District, with Mikie Sherrill.

But it’s the next two that would clearly show Democrats on their way to a huge House majority: Republican incumbents Leonard Lance and Tom MacArthur, one of the architects of the House’s health care repeal bill who also backed Trump’s tax bill, are also in the fights of their political lives. If MacArthur loses, it’d show how potent health care is as an issue for Democrats.

– Mississippi Senate: Does Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith hold off conservative Chris McDaniel and advance to a one-on-one runoff against Democratic former Rep. Mike Espy?

An 8:30 p.m. ET House race: In Arkansas, Democrats got their strongest possible challenger in state lawmaker Clarke Tucker to take on Republican Rep. French Hill. It’s another member of the wave-maker category of districts that would signal a huge Democratic night.

After narrowly missing out on the presidency, Democrats in Minnesota are set to flip the state from red to blue in two years. Democrats appear likely to hold the state’s two Senate seats and the governor’s mansion, but four closely watched House contests, including two where Democrats are on defense, will indicate how successful Democrats are in breaking down Trump’s red wall.

The poll closing at 9 p.m. ET could also cement 2018 as the year of the suburban revolt against Republicans. The Republicans have written off the 3rd and 6th districts of Kansas and Colorado as well as suburban seats in Dallas and Houston, which could cement House majority for Democrats.

The Republicans won big in New York. Their candidates for Congress fared far better than Mr. Trump had in 2020 — sometimes by as much as 20 points. Republicans won all but one of the seven congressional districts. The governor’s race in a normally blue state was fairly close, though the Democratic incumbent, Kathy Hochul, held off her Republican challenger, Lee Zeldin.

History in Texas? Texas hasn’t elected a state-wide Democrat since 1988. O’ Beto, fueled by Democratic enthusiasm and a Brinks Truck worth of cash, has given Ted Cruz a real race. Polls have the upstart Democrat down and Republicans believe the state’s Republican tendencies will be evident on Election Day, but staggeringly high early voting numbers and national attention on the race have given O’Rourke a chance. A win here would be earth-shattering for Democrats.

And the 9 p.m. poll closing could also bring a big loss for Democrats. If polls are any indication, Sen. Heitkamp will lose on Tuesday because of a few campaign gaffes. She’s had a few campaign missteps, including the defining mistake of incorrectly identifying victims of sexual assault in a campaign ad.

Democrats hope that a win in Arizona for two congresswomen will help them get a victory in North Dakota earlier in the night.

Is Scott Walker done? In Michigan, Kansas, New Mexico, and Wisconsin, the Democrats are vying for governor, but the race is very close, with the state schools chief Tony Evers challenging the incumbent Scott Walker.

The race has become a judgment on Walker, who is asking voters for a third term in the state, an ask that even Republicans admit makes his re-election difficult.

In South Dakota, the dark horse race is between a Republican congresswoman and a Democrat who supports abortion and is pro-gun.

While Democrats are fighting in competitive races throughout California’s Central Valley – where Democrats Josh Harder and T.J. Cox are looking to oust Republicans in districts Clinton won two years ago – the bulk of Democratic focus will be on Southern California, namely the Los Angeles and Orange County area.

Katie Hill, Gil Cisneros, Katie Porter, Harley Rouda and Mike Levin are the five Democrats looking to flip seats in the traditionally Republican area. The focus of attention will most likely be on the five seats in Southern California if the races earlier in the night go well for Democrats.

Democrats think they can hold on to Montana, where Tester is running on authenticity, but Nevada is expected to be a fight, despite the fact that Heller is the most vulnerable GOP incumbent running for Senate this year.

Bill Walker, the independent governor in Alaska, ended his re- election campaign in favor of Mark Beggs, who is running against incumbent Mike Dunleavy. Republicans think they can win the race, but lack of reliable polls and the unexpected withdrawal of the current governor could give them a late-night surprise.

In 2020, Biden flipped Wisconsin back to blue by less than a point after Trump narrowly won the state in 2016. The previous seven elections were won by Democratic presidential candidates.

The control of the Senate, the House and the state governments are determined by critical races in these states. What happens in these states will impact issues like abortion rights, economic policy, education and the climate crisis — not just within their borders, but across the country.

Inside Election with Nathan L. Gonzalez is used by CNN to provide nonpartisan analysis of campaigns for Senate, House and governor.

The Democrats need 50 seats to retain control of the Senate and the Republicans need 51, with Vice President Harris’ tie-breaking vote deciding the fate of the Senate. Of the 35 seats on the ballot this year, Republicans are currently favored to win 20 seats, while Democrats are favored to win 12 seats. 3 seats are rated toss-up.

When Biden won Georgia in the 2020 presidential election, he became the first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992 to win the state’s electoral college votes, the only times Democratic presidential nominees have won the state since native son Jimmy Carter was on the ballot.

Wisconsin is one of the most closely divided states in the nation, and GOP Sen. Ron Johnson and Democratic Gov. Tony Evers both face highly competitive reelection campaigns. Johnson has a history of making controversial statements and he is facing Barnes who has support for removing police funding. Republican businessman Tim Michels won the support of President Donald Trump in the primary by portraying him as a liar. Democrats get the most support from blue-collar Milwaukee and Madison. The GOP base is found in Milwaukee’s wealthier suburbs, as well as less populated counties of central Wisconsin.

The most obvious differences appeared to be the abortion and democracy issues that were at stake, state by state. In Pennsylvania, Republicans nominated a candidate for governor, Doug Mastriano, who was central to efforts to overturn the states’s 2020 presidential election results. Democrats were concerned about a constitutional crisis and a threat to the democratic government if Mastriano were to win. It may have made it harder for a long held right, as Mr. Mastriano is an opponent of abortion.

The two issues were not critical in New York. There was no danger that the Democratic Legislature would overturn abortion rights. There was little movement to overturn the victory of Mr. Biden in New York. As a result, Republicans focused the campaign on crime. And it paid off.

There are exceptions, of course — like Democratic strength in Colorado or Republican durability in Texas. Most of the party showings fit well.

There’s the Republican landslide in Florida, where the stop-the-steal movement never sought to overturn an election result and where Gov. Ron DeSantis refused to go further than a 15-week abortion ban. There are the Democratic successes in Kansas and Michigan, where abortion referendums were on the ballot at different points this year, and where Democrats swept the most competitive House districts.

Some outliers in certain states are explained by the pattern. In Ohio, Representative Marcy Kaptur trounced her Republican opponent, J.R. Majewski, who had rallied at the Capitol on Jan. 6 and misrepresented his military service. She won the district by 13 points. The other Republican House races in Ohio performed better than Mr. Trump did.

Maine is another state that uses ranked-choice voting to decide its winners in federal elections. Results reported so far reflect voters’ first-place choices. The candidate with the least votes is eliminated and their votes are redistributed to the other 2 candidates if no more than 50% of the votes are cast. The process continues until a candidate clears 50%. The ranked choice tabulation is scheduled for Tuesday, November 15.

In August, Mary Peltola became the new Democratic congressman following the death of GOP Rep. Don Young. She is in a rematch with former Gov. Sarah Palin, the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee, and Republican businessman Nick Begich in her bid for a full term.

The Uncalled Democratic House Races: California’s 2nd District, New Mexico’s 41st District, and New York’s 22nd District

As of late Saturday, an estimated 290,000 votes were left to be counted in the Grand Canyon State. There are two uncalled House races in Arizona.

New Mexico’s 2nd District is made up of parts of southern and western New Mexico and is currently held by a Republican, who is trying to win a second term. If Biden carried it by 6 points in 2020, it would have been a 6 point win. While Herrell has conceded the race, CNN has not yet made a projection.

California’s 41st District – Longtime Republican Rep. Ken Calvert is locked in a close race with Democrat Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, in this Riverside County district that Trump would have carried by 1 point in 2020.

New York’s 22nd District – Republican Brandon Williams and Democrat Francis Conole, both Navy veterans, are competing for this redrawn Central New York district. It’s an open seat that Biden would have carried by under 8 points.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/results/house?election-data-id=2022-HG&election-painting-mode=projection&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false

The 6th District: State Sen. Andrea Salinas and State Rep. Mike Erickson are competing for a newly drawn district in Oregon

Oregon conducts its elections entirely by mail. Ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and can be received up to seven days later. A new seat in the House has been gained by the state. CNN reported on the 5th District race, which remained uncalled as of Sunday night.

Oregon’s 6th District – Democratic state Rep. Andrea Salinas and Republican businessman Mike Erickson are competing for this newly drawn district, which includes Salem. Biden would have carried it by 13 points in 2020.