Xi Jinping and the Development of Strategic Partnerships: A Brief Address to China and the United States in the Framework of a Strategic Strategy for the Next 30 Years
Seated next to Xi in a Beijing hotel, Biden told a room of Chinese and American business leaders about his “great optimism about the next 30 years” for bilateral relations and praised Xi for being “straightforward.”
The document, required by Congress, comes 21 months into Biden’s term. The broad contours of the strategy have been in evidence over the course of the President’s tenure, including a focus on rebuilding global partnerships and countering China and Russia.
“Around the world, the need for American leadership is as great as it has ever been. Biden writes in the introduction to the strategy that there is a strategic competition for the future of the international order.
He said that they would not leave their future vulnerable to the whims of those who did not share their vision for a free, open, prosperous, and secure world. The United States of America is better positioned to lead with strength and purpose than any other nation because of the continued impacts of the Pandemic and global economic uncertainty.
Russia poses an immediate threat to the open international system, recklessly violating the basics of the order, as demonstrated by its brutal war of aggression against Ukraine, said the document. “(China), by contrast, is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to advance that objective.”
The time this decade is vital for defining the terms of competition and getting ahead of massive challenges that we will not be able to keep pace with, he said.
Xi Jinping defended his hard-line reign on Sunday, presenting himself to a congress of China’s ruling elite as the leader whose tough policies had saved the nation from the ravages of the pandemic and was now focused on securing China’s rise amid multiplying global threats.
Sun said that in order to break with tradition and retain his third term, the party needs to remove the term limit. Now, his political agenda is likely to change from primarily domestic to global.
But his praise was accompanied by a warning that the nation must stand behind the party to cope with a world that was becoming even more hostile. And though he did not mention the United States by name, his distrust of the world’s other great power was an unmistakable backdrop to that exhortation.
Mr.Xi said to be aware of dangers during peace. “Get the house in good repair before rain comes, and prepare to undergo the major tests of high winds and waves, and even perilous, stormy seas.”
China’s Steps Towards a New Era: How the Stimson Center Program Views the PRC and the 2049 Ukrainian War
The only other leader who has had a third term has been the one who founded the PRC. This break from history would signify China’s move into a new era, which is how the director of the China Program at the Stimson Center sees it.
“This is actually one of the areas — compared to, for example, domestic reform and domestic economic policy — this is an area that Xi Jinping is going to prevail,” Sun said. “These people are going to operationalize his strategy with even more gusto and precision.”
Sun said she expects political loyalists and political aides to be appointed to key positions to help with the implementation of his vision.
There are people in the government that do not believe in China’s policies towards the U.S., which could result in China being left without a system of checks and balances.
The war in Ukraine is a significant point of tension in the world and is one of several key topics on the agenda.
China’s strategy toward Taiwan has not fundamentally changed, Li said, but “there’s a perception that Beijing is more and more focused on no longer just deterring independence … but rather, compelling reunification.”
But that perception — and the resulting actions from the U.S., such as high-level congressional visits from the likes of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi — has led to something of a catch-22 situation, Li said.
“You get this tit-for-tat retaliation where there’s not a lot of trust … and sort of a back and forth where the U.S. views its actions as responsive to China’s actions, [and] China views its actions as a response to the U.S.’s actions,” Li said.
The technology industry has become a bigger priority for China, as the country hopes to make it a modern socialist country in 2049, which coincides with the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China.
This sort of competition between technological capabilities, between supply chains is likely to accelerate with the response from Washington and China’s desire to increase self-reliance.
That’s led to what Li said is essentially an impasse. But that doesn’t mean progress can’t happen, only that achieving it will test both countries in the years to come.
U.S. President Xi Jinping to China: Redefining the Second Cold War and Rejoind China on Security and Security Issues
The leaders of the two largest economies will meet for the first time since the beginning of the second Cold War at a summit in China.
The last time a U.S.president shook hands with a Chinese leader was in 2011. The relationship between Beijing and Washington was on an even footing as Donald Trump was in the White House and the COVID-19 epidemic was months away.
Today, trust is running low, the rhetoric is increasingly antagonistic and disputes continue to fester in areas including trade, technology, security and ideology.
“There’s not going to be a joint statement of any sort here. This is really not a meeting that’s being driven by deliverables,” a senior U.S. administration official told reporters this week. “The president believes that it’s crucial to create a floor for the relationship and put in place rules that will bring us closer to our competitors.”
The United States and China have been getting closer for 30 years despite their differences.
“Hopefully the meeting can be used for more than just airing mutual grievances,” said Patricia Kim, a China expert at the Brookings Institution. It would be good if a joint declaration by the US and China against the threat of nuclear weapons in Ukraine and the Korean Peninsula, as well as restarting exchanges on areas of common interest such as climate change and counter-narcotics, would be seen as promising.
Biden said on Wednesday his goal for the meeting is to get a deeper understanding of Xi’s priorities and concerns, and “lay out what each of our red lines are.”
“Those who play with fire will perish by it. The leaders met virtually in the summer and had warned Biden about the situation.
Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan triggered by the United States: How much would it take to negotiate? — An expert at a university
The chairman of the Communist Party of China repeated that the use of force would be an option, despite the country’s preference for a peaceful reunification.
Tensions spiked when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August. Beijing retaliated by holding military exercises around the island.
Biden has said he would make no “fundamental concessions” to Xi, and Sullivan has announced plans to brief Taiwan about the talks with an aim to make Taipei feel “secure and comfortable” about US support.
“I believe that the Biden administration will be less willing to compromise on China,” says a professor of international relations at a university.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has said he would like to visit Taiwan if he becomes majority leader. According to another Chinese expert, a move like that could be disastrous.
“When Pelosi went, the Chinese lost face. “Maybe they will just take action next time, I’m not sure,” says the Chinese expert who is not authorized to speak to the media.
The Impact of the Pelosi Visit on China’s Semiconductor Supply Chain and the American-U.S. Correspondence
“Throughout the Cold War, there were a series of really tough export controls imposed on the Soviet Union by the U.S.,” says Chris Miller, author of the recently published Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology. “I think there’s a lot of similarities.”
The U.S. is trying to prevent key technologies from being used by China’s military and security agencies, but experts say they will have an impact on the rest of society.
It could be difficult to enforce the restrictions in China. Small devices can be used to smuggle across borders. Other countries that are part of the complex Semiconductor supply chain would have to be on board in order for enforcement to be complete.
In the wake of the Pelosi visit, Beijing cut three channels of dialogue and suspended cooperation in five other areas, including climate change. China and the United States have sharply reduced contact in the past.
If Biden andXi can muster the political will, experts think the meeting could yield a commitment to open more channels of communication.
Direct communication is more important than ever given the fact that Xi has just secured a third term with a tighter grip of power and a chance to rule for life. “There is no one else in their system who can really communicate authoritatively other than Xi Jinping,” national security adviser Sullivan said.
He thinks there is a chance to take a bit of a gamble after the elections in China and the U.S.
The Status of the South China Sea and the First ASEAN Summit for the U.S. During the Cuban Missile Crisis and the PRC: A warning to Indonesia
Zhu cautions against expecting too much from the summit. He says that a discussion can help deepen understanding, but that’s it.
The current moment is very dangerous, like the 1950s and early 1960s, when the U.S. and the Soviet Union were distrustful of each other.
Both sides of the Cuban Missile Crisis had a belief in strategic restraint and arms control agreements as part of their mutual interests, he says.
Biden’s visit to Cambodia — the second ever by a U.S. president — continues his administration’s push to demonstrate its investments in the south Pacific, which was highlighted earlier this year when the White House hosted an ASEAN summit in Washington, the first of its kind. The White House has highlighted that commitment by saying he tapped one of his senior aides, Yohannes Abraham, as the official envoy to ASEAN.
Biden and Xi will meet on Monday at the Group of 20 summit that brings together leaders from the world’s largest economies, which is held this year in Indonesia on the island of Bali.
Jake Sullivan said Biden will raise the issue of freedom of navigation and fishing in the South China Sea with the ASEAN leaders in order to demonstrate that the US is against Beijing.
“There’s a real demand signal for that,” Sullivan told reporters aboard Air Force One on Saturday. Referring to the People’s Republic of China, Sullivan continued: “I think the PRC may not love that fact, but they certainly acknowledge it and understand it.”
Sullivan said that Biden will discuss maritime awareness using radio frequencies from satellites to better track dark shipping and illegal fishing.
United States-Asia Strategic Alliance summit speaker Biden addressed human rights concerns in Myanmar, Cambodia, and in the U.S. during the midterm elections
ASEAN this year is elevating the U.S. to a “comprehensive strategic partnership” status — a largely symbolic enhancement of their relationship but one that puts Washington on the same level as China, which was granted the distinction last year.
Biden also raised human rights concerns in Cambodia. The White House said after the meeting that Biden urged the prime minister to “reopen civic and political space” before the elections in 2023.
Another topic Biden focused on is Myanmar, where the military junta overthrew the ruling government in February 2021 and arrested its democratically elected leader, Aung San Suu Kyi. The U.S. was committed to the return of democracy in Myanmar, which had been under military rule before a coup there, as Biden told Hun Sen.
Biden, according to the White House, also pushed Hun Sen to release activists including Theary Seng, a Cambodian-American lawyer who was convicted of treason as the prime minister’s long-running rule aimed to crack down on his opposition. The White House said that Biden raised safety concerns about activities at Ream Naval Base, which Cambodian officials have described as a collaborative effort between it and China.
At the US-ASEAN summit, there was an empty chair where a representative from Malaysia would have sat if their leaders weren’t barred from participating in official meetings.
In his brief remarks Saturday, Biden mistakenly identified host nation Cambodia as “Colombia,” a flub he also made on Thursday night as he was leaving the U.S.
The relationship between Beijing and Washington is positive and in the mutual interest of both countries, Biden said when he visited Beijing as vice president.
On Monday, the two leaders are set to meet each other for another honest exchange in Bali, Indonesia, on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit. The mood in the room isn’t likely to be as warm as the surrounding area.
Biden, meanwhile, arrived in Asia following a better-than-expected performance by his party in the US midterm elections – with the Democrats projected to keep the Senate in a major victory. Asked Sunday whether the results allowed him to go into Monday’s face-to-face with a stronger hand, Biden voiced confidence. He told reporters that he knew he was coming in stronger.
One conversation on the sidelines of a summit is not enough to discuss all the key issues of the countries. And so hopefully, the two sides will facilitate a greater discussion on these issues by many parts of the two governments.”
A senior White House official said Thursday Biden wants to use the talks to “build a floor” for the relationship – in other words, to prevent it from free falling into open conflict. The objectives of the sit-down are to get a better understanding of each other and to reduce misconceptions, according to a US official.
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan reinforced the message Saturday to reporters aboard Air Force One, noting the meeting is unlikely to result in any major breakthroughs or dramatic shifts in the relationship.
The Dialogue Between the US and China: Where are the differences? What can they tell us about Taiwan and how to deal with climate change?
Each side blames the other entirely for the state of the relationship and each believes they are faring better than the other in the situation, said Kennedy, who has recently returned from a weeks-long visit to China – a rare opportunity in recent years due to China’s zero-Covid border restrictions.
The Chinese and Americans think they are winning and so are willing to pay for it. And they think the other side is very unlikely to make any significant changes,” Kennedy said. All of those things reduce the chance of making significant adjustments.
Experts say the fact that the two leaders are talking to each other is positive. Keeping dialogue open is crucial for reducing risks of misunderstanding and miscalculations, especially when suspicions run deep and tensions run high.
“I would love to be a fly on the wall to see that conversation because I don’t think that the US or China has been very precise about what its red lines are. And I also don’t think either has been very clear about what positive rewards the other side would reap from staying within those red lines,” said Kennedy, of CSIS.
Under the “One China” policy, Washington acknowledges Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China, but has never accepted its claim of sovereignty over the island. The US provides Taiwan defensive weapons, but has remained deliberately vague on whether it would intervene militarily if China attacks the island – a policy known as “strategic ambiguity.”
China responded by launching large scale military exercises around Taiwan that formed an effective blockade and halted dialogue with the US in a number of areas.
The leaders of Taiwan and China are sitting in the same room, and they are expected to discuss Taiwan a lot. barbs have already been traded in a sign that the issue is contentious.
“On the issue of Ukraine, China has already made its position clear many times. The talks with the US President will not cause it to change. On North Korea, since March last year, China has already stopped treating the denuclearization of North Korea as a fundamental element of its Korean Peninsular policy,” he said.
His assessment of climate cooperation isn’trosier. When it comes to how to deal with climate change specifically, China and the US can find common interests, but that doesn’t mean they’ll agree on how to handle ideology and global influence.
Some progress on better communication between the US and China will be seen as positive by experts in both countries.