The CNN Poll reveals the focus of registered voters on two key issues: The economy, inflation, and the economy in the competitive districts of the United States
There is a split among voters about whether the Republican policies will move the country in the right direction or the wrong one, but the GOP has a larger advantage in competitive districts. About an equal share of voters say they feel strongly in one direction or the other about the outcome of a GOP victory.
Republican registered voters nationwide and in competitive congressional districts are a bit more likely to say they are deeply motivated to vote than are Democratic registered voters (52% extremely motivated among Republicans nationally, 46% among Democrats; in competitive districts, it’s 55% among Republicans vs. 45% among Democrats).
Democratic candidates do hold some advantages, though. A majority of registered voters think the local Democratic candidates care about the people they are campaigning for more than the Republicans do, that they protect democracy more than their GOP competitors and that the country is better off without dividing it. Republicans are seen as being too extreme by voters more so than Democrats.
In competitive congressional districts, the economy and inflation take on added importance. While 59% of registered voters nationally call the economy extremely important to their vote, that rises to 67% in those districts, and the share calling inflation that important rises from 56% to 64%. The shares who consider voting and elections, gun policy or abortion extremely important are about the same nationally as they are in these battleground districts (61% nationally vs. 59% in competitive districts on voting, 57% vs. 56% on gun policy, and 52% vs. 55% on abortion).
Although results from the same poll released Wednesday revealed that views of the economy remain sharply negative, those figures have rebounded somewhat from summer lows. With that shift, Democrats and independents have become less likely to consider the economy or inflation a deeply critical issue. As that shift has occurred, the wide gaps in issue priorities by party that have been consistent across polling this year have grown.
Former President Donald Trump – though also not a factor for about half of voters (50%) – prompts a more even partisan reaction, and may work in Democrats’ favor in the competitive districts. A total of 28% of people who vote nationwide say they will vote to send opposition to Trump, while 20% say they will send support. In competitive districts, 54% of Democrats say their vote will be to express opposition to the former President while 47% of Republicans say they’ll be voting to express support.
The CNN Poll was conducted among a random nationwide sample of 1,962 adults, including 1,577 voters and 1,198 likely voters, that were initially mailed in. Surveys were either conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. For the full sample, there was a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points among registered voters and 3.5 among likely voters. The sample chosen for the survey was found to be over a large number of people living in competitive congressional districts with publicly available race ratings at the time they were chosen. The error margin is plus or minus 5.6 points for 540 registered voters in the sample and minus 3.6 points for 484 likely voters. The subset was weighted to take into account its share of the whole population of the US.
The Democrats had a great summer. There was a huge surge in voter registration due to the Dobbs decision. The Democrats were able to scoop up victories in Alaska and Kansas and good news in upstate New York.
The poll contained some eye-popping numbers. Democrats were counting on abortion rights to be a big issue, gaining them broad support among female voters. It does not seem to be working. Over the past month, the gender gap, which used to favor Democrats, has evaporated. The Democrats were favored by 14 points in September by women who identified as independent voters. Now they favor Republicans by 18 percentage points.
To understand how the parties think the campaign is going, look at where they are spending their money. As Henry Olsen noted in The Washington Post last week, Democrats are pouring money into House districts that should be safe — places that Joe Biden won by double digits in 2020. The 13th District race in California and the 6th District in Oregon are now rated tossups by Politico. Two years ago, according to Politico, he won those areas by 11 and 14 points.
Editor’s Note: Kristen Soltis Anderson, a CNN Political commentator, is a Republican strategist and pollster and author of “The Selfie Vote: Where Millennials Are Leading America (and How Republicans Can Keep Up.)” The views expressed in this commentary are her own. Read more opinion articles on CNN.
A Meme of President Joe Biden: His Dark Side, His Oasis, and Where Are We Going? What do we really know about the Democratic Party and what are we doing?
For those who do not know – and my own polling suggests that is most everyone reading this – “Dark Brandon” is a meme of President Joe Biden, rendered as an all-powerful hero (or villain, depending on your perspective). It began as a right-wing phrase and was then used to praise the President.
The meme reached the height of its powers, whatever those may be, when the Democratic group Building Back Together released a hallucinogenic 30-second ad earlier this month featuring the meme of President Biden, lasers coming out of his eyes and all. The message? Biden is an exciting hero on student loan debt issues. It is recommended that if you are not sure about Biden and the Democratic Party, please do not be.
The voters under 30 are not fond of how things are going in America. Two-thirds of them say that the economy is bad, according to CBS News/YouGov polling. Less than a third of people approve of the job Biden is doing. More than one-third of voters say they are very enthusiastic about voting, but less than half of voters are over the age of 65. Only one in six people say they are paying a lot of attention to the elections.
However, my own firm’s analysis suggests that voters under the age of 30 could fall to only 10% of the electorate in 2022 –a year where we expect overall turnout to be historic for a midterm at over 125 million votes.
But then Donald Trump lost the presidency and Biden – not necessarily a favorite among younger voters – became the leader of the nation and the Democratic Party. Even before he became a presidential candidate, young voters only had a positive view of him one third of the time.
The Democrats are worried about this because it is happening at a time when young Americans are vocal about their politics. Companies are grappling with Gen Z and Millennial employees who seem keener than ever to work for employers that align with their political and cultural worldview. I regularly hear from business leaders who know that younger consumers are voting with their wallets and opting for products and services that match their values.
Democrats have done a lot better in the midterm elections than a lot of pundits and analysts had anticipated. They’re favored to hold on to the Senate and look to have kept their losses in the House to a minimum.
Those under 30 seemed to vote more Democratic than those over the age of 39. Voters under 30 are partially Generation Z (those born after 1996) and partially the youngest millennials. The oldest voters are between 30 and 39 years old.
These older millennials were the strongest supporters of Barack Obama during his 2008 primary campaign and eventual ascendency to the presidency. They supported the Democratic House candidates by only 11 points.