Biden’s remarks at the benefit of the U.S. Senate: A very real, ongoing conversation inside the Trump administration with a nuclear weapon

Yet Biden’s remarks, as one official noted, do reflect reality – a reality that may be difficult to grasp due to the combination of a far-off war and a post-Cold War era when nuclear threats have simply disappeared from daily risks. Those risks have grown acutely in the last eight months, even if there is no tangible evidence Putin has made concrete moves in that direction.

Several senior US officials were caught off-guard by Biden’s assessment due to their lack of new intelligence and the grim language he used.

While most of the comments Biden makes at the benefit are familiar, he has previously made comments that went well beyond his remarks to larger audiences. Biden made comments about Trump and the Republicans at a political event in Maryland, where he said the views of the Catholic Church on abortion had changed.

The threat of Putin using nuclear weapons is certainly “elevated” compared to earlier in the year, multiple sources told CNN late last month. The likelihood of Putin using a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukranian is not certain, according to multiple officials. The intelligence community is closely watching for any signs that the Russian leader’s calculus has changed.

The Biden remarks allow for a very real, very ongoing discussion inside his administration as the seek to calibrate the response to that environment.

Biden often speaks from handwritten notes, similar to a script he’s written for himself, at intimate fundraisers that are more like gatherings with a few dozen donors. Like at his public events, Biden speaks from a handheld microphone during his fundraisers and usually roams around the room while he’s talking. Reporters are allowed to listen and report on the President’s remarks but not film them, a convention that began during the Obama presidency.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/07/politics/joe-biden-nuclear-weapons-russia-vladimir-putin/index.html

The United States as a Cold War: 21 Months After Kennedy-Krushchev’s Damned Strategy for the Future of the World, Revisited

Biden was explicit about the risks posed by the critical difference. President John F. Kennedy and his team weighed a series of potential off-ramps and backchannel proposals that could head off the crisis. The Soviet leader at the time – Nikita Khrushchev, who had seen the horrors of World War II – always made clear he understood the stakes of a nuclear standoff, even if his strategic calculation in Cuba was woefully off-base. Kennedy and Khrushchev’s dealings reflected thatreality, even at their worst moments and most bellicose threats.

The President’s use of Armageddon served to illustrate that point – there’s no escalation ladder when it comes to nuclear weapons, tactical or otherwise. Any move in that direction sets off a cascading response that only has one outcome.

One official characterized the speech as “insane,” and while that bolstered the US view of Russian weakness and isolation, it also further increased concern about Putin’s willingness to escalate beyond the level of a rational actor.

There are no plans to address the remarks in isolation at this time, even though White House officials decided not to speak publicly Thursday night. If Biden decides to address it himself, it will be obvious when he leaves for his event later in the morning, one official said.

The most important thing is that US officials have never seen a change in their posture or intelligence that causes an elevated threat level.

The US has had direct communications to Moscow in the past few weeks detailing the scale of their response should Putin choose that path. Officials say that the details will not be changed any time soon.

Biden sat next to Xi in a Beijing hotel and spoke about his optimism for the next 30 years for bilateral relations and praised the Chinese president for being straight forward.

The document is 21 months into Biden’s term. The broad contours of the strategy have been in evidence over the course of the President’s tenure, including a focus on rebuilding global partnerships and countering China and Russia.

Jake Sullivan said that the strategy made clear the White House was not viewing the world solely through strategic competition.

“We will not leave our future vulnerable to the whims of those who do not share our vision for a world that is free, open, prosperous, and secure,” he goes on. “As the world continues to navigate the lingering impacts of the pandemic and global economic uncertainty, there is no nation better positioned to lead with strength and purpose than the United States of America.”

The document claims that the war of aggression against Ukraine shows that Russia poses an immediate threat to the free and open international system. “(China), by contrast, is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to advance that objective.”

“This decisive decade is critical both for defining the terms of competition, particular with the (People’s Republic of China), and for getting ahead of massive challenges that if we lose the time this decade we will not be able to keep pace with,” he said.

Seongju County, which includes this village, had been known mainly for its farming community before residents grabbed national headlines protesting the arrival of the Thaad system five years ago. Villagers here — and many South Koreans elsewhere — were concerned that it could place South Korea on the front lines of a potential Sino-American conflict.

Concerns have been raised as Washington and Beijing argue over Taiwan, supply chains and the South China Sea. There are a lot of anti-American banners on both sides of the road leading up to the American military base. “Yankees, go home! Thaad, go home!” They demand.

In an early-morning rally, Ms. Do and 20 other people sat on plastic chairs and yelled: “We don’t need Thaad!” We need peace!” An hour later, police officers ​removed them — carrying them in their chairs — so the road could be cleared for trucks and water and fuel tanks going up the hill to the Thaad base​.

United States and China at the G20 summit: Biden in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, and after the February 2021 military dictatorship

Washington has provided security for South Korea in the past. The United States is still the country’s biggest trading partner with China accounting for 30 percent of exports.

“I look forward to continuing our work together with ASEAN and with each one of you to deepen peace and prosperity throughout the region to resolve challenges from the South China Sea to Myanmar and to find innovative solutions to shared challenges,” Biden said, citing climate and health security among areas of collaboration.

Biden will meet with China’s leader on Friday, their first one-on-one meeting since Biden took office. The meeting is going to be on the sidelines of the G20 summit.

Freedom of navigation refers to a dispute involving the South China Sea, where the United States says it can sail and fly wherever international law allows and China believes such missions are destabilizing. Sullivan said that the U.S. has an important role to play in the region and that it’s important to prevent one country from engaging in “sustained intimidation and coercion” that could hurt other countries.

“There’s a real demand signal for that,” Sullivan told reporters aboard Air Force One on Saturday. Referring to the People’s Republic of China, Sullivan continued: “I think the PRC may not love that fact, but they certainly acknowledge it and understand it.”

One new initiative related to those efforts that Biden will discuss Saturday is called maritime awareness, using radio frequencies from commercial satellites to track dark shipping and illegal fishing.

ASEAN this year is elevating the U.S. to a “comprehensive strategic partnership” status — a largely symbolic enhancement of their relationship but one that puts Washington on the same level as China, which was granted the distinction last year.

Biden arrived in Phnom Penh on Saturday, holding a bilateral meeting with ASEAN chair and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, and attending the ASEAN-US summit.

The military dictatorship overthrew the ruling government in February 2021 and arrested its leader, the democratic leader of the country, as Biden was focused on. As he met with Hun Sen, Biden stressed that the U.S. was committed to the return of democracy in Myanmar, which had steadily headed toward a democratic form of governance before the coup.

Biden, according to the White House, also pushed Hun Sen to release activists including Theary Seng, a Cambodian-American lawyer who was convicted of treason as the prime minister’s long-running rule aimed to crack down on his opposition. The White House said Biden raised concerns about the activities at the Ream Naval Base, which Cambodian officials say is a collaborative effort between it and China.

American President Xi Jinping makes a mistake: a sit-down on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Bali, Indonesia

There was no chair for a representative fromMyanmar at this year’s U.S.ASEAN summit, since their leaders were barred from participating in official meetings.

Biden flubbed the name of Cambodia when he spoke there Saturday, two days after he made the same mistake while leaving the U.S.

Their in-person encounters continued after Xi took power in 2012. The last time they met face to face was in 2015, during Xi’s first state visit to the US as China’s top leader.

On Monday, the two leaders are set to meet each other for another honest exchange in Bali, Indonesia, on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit. But the mood in the room is unlikely to be as balmy as the surrounding location.

Biden, meanwhile, arrived in Asia following a better-than-expected performance by his party in the US midterm elections – with the Democrats projected to keep the Senate in a major victory. Asked Sunday whether the results allowed him to go into Monday’s face-to-face with a stronger hand, Biden voiced confidence. He told reporters that he was coming in stronger.

“One conversation on the sidelines of a multilateral summit is still insufficient to fully discuss all the key issues that the countries face. And so hopefully, the two sides will facilitate a greater discussion on these issues by many parts of the two governments.”

Despite China and the US being in a state of near-total enmity, it is not likely that major issues can be untangled.

A senior White House official said Thursday that Biden wants to prevent the relationship from being freefalling into open conflict by using the talks to build a floor. The main goal of the sit-down is not about deliverables or agreements, but about getting a better idea of each leader’s priorities and reducing misconceptions, according to a US official.

The summit will not have specific deliverables, Jake Sullivan said Saturday, as he spoke with reporters aboard Air Force One.

In Beijing, there are low hopes for a reset with Washington. Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University, said it would be an “enormous over-expectation” to believe the meeting can lead to any lasting and significant improvement in bilateral ties.

Kennedy went to China recently and said that both sides blame the other for the situation, and that they believe they are doing a better job than the other.

“The Chinese think they’re winning, the Americans think they’re winning, and so they’re willing to bear these costs. And they think the other side is very unlikely to make any significant changes,” Kennedy said. Things like that reduce the likelihood of significant adjustments.

But experts say the very fact that the two leaders are having a face-to-face conversation is itself a positive development. Keeping dialogue open is crucial for reducing risks of misunderstanding and miscalculations, especially when suspicions run deep and tensions run high.

Direct communication is all the more important given Xi has just secured a norm-shattering third term with a tighter grip on power than ever – and a possibility to rule for life. “There is no one else in their system who can really communicate authoritatively other than Xi Jinping,” national security adviser Sullivan said.

On Wednesday, Biden told a news conference that he wants to “lay out what each of our red lines are” when he sits down with Xi, but experts say that might not be as straightforward as it sounds.

“I would love to be a fly on the wall to see that conversation because I don’t think that the US or China has been very precise about what its red lines are. And I also don’t think either has been very clear about what positive rewards the other side would reap from staying within those red lines,” said Kennedy, of CSIS.

Washington acknowledges Beijings position that Taiwan is part of China but has never accepted its claim of sovereignty over the island. The US provides Taiwan defensive weapons, but has remained deliberately vague on whether it would intervene militarily if China attacks the island – a policy known as “strategic ambiguity.”

China accused the US of playing with fire and hollowing out the “one China” policy. Beijing’s anger reached a boiling point in August, when US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi brushed aside its stern warnings and landed in Taipei for a high-profile visit.

China responded by launching large scale military exercises around Taiwan that formed an effective blockade; it also halted dialogue with the US in a number of areas, from military, climate change and cross-border crime to drug trafficking.

Taiwan is expected to be on the agenda when the two leaders sit down in the same room. barbs have already been exchanged in the issue.

Biden has said he would make no “fundamental concessions” to Xi, and Sullivan has announced plans to brief Taiwan about the talks with an aim to make Taipei feel “secure and comfortable” about US support.

Experts in the US and China say some progress on greater communication and access between the two countries will already be considered a positive outcome – such as restoring suspended climate and military talks.

The Challenge of Trilateral Cooperation in the Era of the Midterm Elections: The Case of the U.S. President Joe Biden

President Joe Biden landed in Cambodia on Saturday still reveling in midterm election results that have produced an unexpected boost at home for his second two years in office.

A day after he got to Asia, CNN and other news outlets predicted his party would keep control of the Senate, giving him a lift as he traveled around the world.

Even though votes are still being counted, the scale of the challenges overseas will put the value of political capital on the international stage to the test.

The countries have been involved in trilateral cooperation for many years due to the nuclear and missile threat posed by North Korea.

But that cooperation is imperative as recent, stepped-up aggression from North Korea will be top of mind for the trio of leaders Sunday. According to a CNN count, North Korea has fired missiles 32 times this year. By contrast, it conducted only four tests in 2020, and eight in 2021.

Among the key topics of discussion this weekend in Cambodia, the official said, is the ongoing conflict in Myanmar, where the military seized power in a coup last year.

World leaders will discuss “efforts to promote respect for human rights, rule of law and good governance, the rules-based international order, and also to address the ongoing crisis in Burma.”

In Egypt, Biden met with the president of Egypt and attended a climate summit.