The 2020 Presidential Vote: State Legislature Maps, Dem Demographics, and the Challenges for the Reconstruction of the American House and Senate

To demonstrate his conclusion, Nate mapped the 2020 presidential vote onto the 2022 House map, created after the recent census. When he did, he found that 226 of the current districts voted for Joe Biden in 2020, and only 209 voted for Trump.

The drawing of state legislature districts is one of the most problematic aspects of American democracy. It is possible that states like North Carolina will revise their congressional maps before the end of the 20th century. Still, if you were going to rank the biggest current threats to American democracy, gerrymandering would not be at the top of the list.

The movement inside the Republican Party to refuse to accept defeat in an election would be No. 1. After that, in some order, would be the outsize and growing influence that the Senate gives to residents of small states; the winner-take-all nature of the Electoral College; the lack of congressional representation for residents of Washington, D.C., and of Puerto Rico, many of whom are Black or Latino; and the existence of an ambitious Republican-appointed majority on the Supreme Court even though Democrats have won the popular vote in seven of the past eight presidential elections.

The structural dynamics defining House races, in part due to redistricting, have long made holding onto an already exceedingly narrow majority a tall task. Republicans have become more aggressive in their spending targets in the recent days, indicating they see an expanding map and an environment favorable by the day.

Republicans are feeling better about the election. After a summer when the Democrats were thought to be doing badly in the polls, the polls are giving the GOP a chance.

On a frenetic final weekend of campaigning, Biden and Obama tried to push Democratic nominee John Fetterman over the line in a Pennsylvania Senate race that represents the party’s best chance to pick up a GOP-held Senate seat. But Democrats are under fierce pressure in states like Arizona and Nevada that could flip the chamber to the GOP. Republicans need a single seat to win the majority.

The CNN/SSRS polls released last week show the impossibility of politics for Democrats. Some 51% of likely voters said the economy was the key issue in determining their vote. The election battleground has tilted to the GOP because of only 15% naming abortion. More than 70% of voters plan to vote for Republican in their House district because of the economy. And 75% of voters think the economy is already in a recession, meaning that Biden’s efforts to stress undeniably strong economic areas – including the strikingly low unemployment rate – are likely to fall on deaf ears.

Democrats were hoping the Supreme Court would overturn the right to an abortion and that legislative victories would help them stave off a congressional election defeat. Biden faces a dark political environment because of the 40-year-high in the cost of living – and his hopes of a swift rebound next year are clouded by growing fears of a recession.

Jenifer Fernandez Ancona, vice president and chief strategy officer of Way to Win, a Democratic group that focuses on campaigns and candidates of color, says that stressing the risk to abortion rights still can increase turnout among liberal-leaning groups, like young single women, who might otherwise sit out a midterm election. But she largely agrees that most of the persuadable voters who might move to Democrats around the abortion issue have already done so and that the party during the campaign’s final stretch must ensure it has a competitive message on the economy and other daily concerns. “The reality is everybody is always going to be focused on the things that are affecting their everyday life,” she says. “I think it’s a false choice to be thinking about: is it the economy or is it abortion?”

Even though it is almost all states he carried in 2020, Bidens job approval rating is consistently below 50% in all the states that are most likely to determine the Senate majority. In states where voters hold a negative view of a president from their own party, it is rare for Senate candidates on either side of the aisle to win election.

When examining preference by party, it’s different – more than half of the Republicans and 40% of the independents preferred inflation, while Democrats preferred preserving democracy and abortion.

Given these disparities, Democrats everywhere are stressing issues relating to rights and values, particularly abortion, but also warning about the threat to democracy posed by Trump and his movement. CNN recently reported that Democrats have spent more on abortion-themed ads than Republicans since June.

Democrat Party Leaders Reveal Progress in Addressing the America’s Problems and the Growing Problems of the 21st Century

Biden’s speech made a case that when they come to full fruition, his policies will repair decades of declines in manufacturing and American industry. He argued that his signature bills passed during a legislative hot streak, including a bipartisan infrastructure measure, a law meant to ignite US semiconductor production and another that builds a clean energy economy, would bring jobs and prosperity. He said that the social spending measure passed over the summer would cut long term health care costs since he felt it would make Americans more prosperous.

But those plant openings are mostly still in the future and only a few Democrats (such as Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Arizona Sen. Kelly, and Ohio Senate candidate Tim Ryan) are emphasizing those possibilities this year.

Finally, with the Inflation Reduction Act’s passage in August, Democrats had accomplishments that they could credibly argue would address rising costs for families. The legislation included provisions that could allow Medicare to negotiate the prices of prescription drugs. In isolation, those policies were overwhelmingly popular, polls showed.

Melissa Morales, founder of Somos Votantes, a group that mobilizes Latinos for Democratic candidates, says that one saving grace for her party is that Republicans haven’t convinced voters they have specific answers on the economy either. “The concrete is not set yet,” she said recently after a day of door-to-door canvassing in Phoenix. “There is still a way to move people, connect with people.” Way to win emphasizes the fact that Democrats are committed to providing people opportunities to help them meet their obligation to their families, while Republicans are focused on taking away rights.

A new CNN Poll shows that Americans are very split over whom to support in their congressional districts, with some preferring Republicans and others preferring Democrats. According to a survey, more than 4% of voters say neither of the candidates in their congressional districts has a plan for solving the country’s problems.

Fifty-two percent of Democrats said they have already voted or plan to do so, while 46 percent of Republicans did the same. A majority of Republicans said they plan to vote in-person on Election Day.

Core Democratic groups such as younger voters, Black and Latino voters, and even some women are less enthusiastic about the candidates of the party than they have been in the past, according to the demographic divides of the poll. A CNN Poll early in October found that 59% of women backed Democratic candidates for their district; however, now, 53% do. When it came to the voters of color, 69% backed Democrats, but today they do not. 26% of Latino voters said they support the Republican candidate, with 21% saying they support the Democrats. Black voters split 81% for the Democrat to 11% for the Republican. And among voters younger than the age of 45, Democrats held a 15-point advantage in 2018 compared with just 8 points now. Likely voters in each of these groups currently tilt a bit more Democratic than registered voters, but motivation to vote among younger voters and voters of color is markedly lower than among older voters or White voters.

The reaction of the public to the former President, who also is not a factor for half of voters, is more partisan and may help the Democrats in the competitive districts. Almost all of the voters say that they would send a message of opposition to Trump, with 20% of them agreeing that they will send a message of support. In competitive districts, 50% of Democrats say they will vote against the former President, while 48% of Republicans will vote to support him.

Live operators took the poll of 762 likely voters nationwide from October 9 to December 12. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. You can find cross-tabs and methodology here.

A majority of Hispanic voters disapproved of Mr. Biden, and 60 percent said they’d vote for Democrats in the fall.

College was a particularly strong dividing line. Among those with a bachelor’s degree, Democrats held a 13-point advantage. Among those without one, Republicans held a 15-point edge.

During the Trump presidency, the winning coalition relied on winning women by large margins and a significant gender gap to do so.

The polls showed that Republicans had completely erased the 11 point edge that Democrats had in the races for congress among women last month.

The survey tested former President Donald J. Trump’s favorability rating, as well. He had a 52 percent unfavorability rating, better than Mr. Biden’s 58 percent job disapproval rating.

In a hypothetical 2024 rematch, Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden in the poll by one percentage point. Among women, Mr. Biden was ahead of Mr. Trump by only four points, compared with the margin of more than 10 points that Mr. Biden had in the 2020 election, according to studies of the national electorate for that election.

Today, the mood of the nation is decidedly sour. A majority of voters think the country is moving in the wrong direction, compared to just 24 who think it is on the right track. Even the share of Democratic likely voters who believe the nation is headed in the right direction fell by six percentage points since September, though it is above the low point of the summer.

“Everybody’s hurting right now,” said David Neiheisel, a 48-year-old insurance salesman and Republican in Indianapolis. The cost of food, gas, interest rates, the cost of property Taxes, all of those have gone up and are going to collapse because of inflation.

The thing with elections is that they tend to break in one direction. And right now, all the indicators on my political dashboard are blinking red — as in, toward Republicans.

The Great Summer of 2016: How the White House Spent Too Many Dollars in a One-Dimensional Economy. Editorial Note: CNN’s Julian Zelizer

Inflation and high gas prices are also a global issue and have been worsened by factors beyond Biden’s control, including the war in Ukraine and supply chain issues brought on by the pandemic. At the same time, however, economists are debating the wisdom of Biden’s high-spending bills that sent billions of dollars into an overheating economy. The White House played down the soaring cost of living in a way that hurt his credibility and made voters doubt his ability to be trusted as the US prepared to leave Afghanistan last year.

The New York Times/Siena poll shows that voters think the economy is bad and that the conditions that helped Democrats gain over the summer are no longer in place.

Democrats had a great summer. The Dobbs decision led to a surge of voter registrations. Voters handed Democrats a string of sweet victories in unlikely places — Alaska and Kansas, and good news in upstate New York.

Editor’s Note: Julian Zelizer, a CNN political analyst, is a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University. He is the author and editor of 24 books, including, “The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: A First Historical Assessment.” His name islianzelizer and you can follow him on social media. His own views are expressed in this commentary. CNN has more opinion on it.

The Birth and Death of the Tea Party Caucus: The Effects of Midterm Elections on the Second Reionization of the United States

According to The Washington Post, Orthodontic Republicans who are running for office in the fall do not accept that Biden won in 2020. Many of them will lose, but there’s a good chance they’ll be victorious and help President Donald Trump’s reelection in four years.

The midterms could turn supporters of election denialism into the new Freedom Caucus – the Tea Party Republicans who came to Washington after the 2010 midterms and organized into a powerful faction in the House GOP within a few years. They could be a big part of the new majority that pushes anti-democratic policies to the top of the Republican agenda.

According to the FiveThirtyEight, half of Americans will vote for the other side in the election. Among the deniers are some hoping to be secretaries of state, which – if victorious – would allow them to run state elections in coming years.

The same sort of transformation that her predecessor Newt Gingrich went through, Draper shows how Greene has turned into a party leader. He notes that if Republicans win, she will get a position of power. Jim Jordan, who was labeled as a political terrorist by the Speaker of the House, will become one of their main powerbrokers in the lower chamber.

In other words, Republican success in the 2022 midterms will cement that Trumpism wasn’t some sort of aberration – it is the norm. Liz Cheney of Wyoming is no longer in congress.

One of the best examples of how midterms can have this impact took place in 1978. Democrats retained control of the House and the Senate so the results were not bad for President Jimmy Carter.

But just beneath the surface, it became clear that something was changing. The nation’s rightward turn, which Ronald Reagan cemented with his presidential election two years later in 1980, was on the way. The Democrats lost three seats in the Senate and fifteen seats in the House. The Democrats had held onto their territory in the South until the 1960s.

Republicans gained six gubernatorial seats, an area where the Republican National Committee had heavily invested. Republicans gained control of 12 state legislative chambers, up from four. “This is the most profound change for us,” noted then-RNC Chair Bill Brock, in Time magazine.

The numbers are not as important as the substance. Gingrich was one of a number of up and coming Republicans who did not believe in the need to stick to the center and instead advocated a new generation of aggressive and bold conservatives.

Republicans like Sen. Thad Cochran of Mississippi won seats that had been controlled by conservative Democrats for decades. Cochran took the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. James Eastland, one of the most famous opponents of civil rights. In Iowa, Democratic Sen. Dick Clark fell to defeat to abortion opponent Sen. Roger Jepsen, who attacked his opponent as “the senator from Africa” for Clark’s work fighting apartheid. These Republicans emphasized themes such as tax reductions and a stronger stance against communism.

There were new conservative political organizations that flexed their muscle. The National Conservative Political Action Committee helped to oust several prominent Democrats. Gordon Humphrey, a Republican opponent of abortion, defeated Thomas McIntyre in the Senate race.

Newsweek noted that the US swung to the right in the wake of the New Deal. The results of the election said that there was a consensus on inflation as the priority target, while tax-and-spend government was the primary villain.

“Trumpism” has already happened, but some still wonder if there will be any long-term change in the Republican party. While that kind of question is impossible to answer, the hold of election denialism on so many Republican candidates and the rightward shift on policies like immigration is a very strong indication of where things stand – even if some of the high-profile Trump-selected candidates, such a Herschel Walker in Georgia or J.D. Vance in Ohio, lose.

The former president is believed to have set up the anti-democratic theme as a way of trying to overturn the election. He was unsuccessful in the endeavor, but his strategy lives on.

The midterms are turning into a moment for the Republicans to double down on this direction, reminding voters why conservatives such as Cheney don’t really have much room at the table. If they’re triumphant in November, there will be no turning back in the next few election cycles from the new royalty of the party of Trump.

Editor’s Note: Charlie Dent is a former Republican congressman from Pennsylvania who was chair of the House Ethics Committee from 2015 until 2017 and chair of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction, Veterans Affairs and Related Agencies from 2015 until 2018. He is a political commentator. His views are expressed in the commentary. CNN has more opinion on it.

The US Senate and governor’s seats in Pennsylvania are open, with the former retiring and the latter finishing his term. It is a highly unusual occurrence in the commonwealth.

It is not surprising that Shapiro has the support of many mainstream Pennsylvania Republicans, who are upset by Mastriano’s candidacy. Further, unless there is a massive GOP wave, it is hard to envision a scenario where Shapiro does not prevail, although this race may be closer than current polling suggests.

Shapiro has dominated the airwaves. What’s more, during an interview last week on the Real America’s Voice network, Mastriano falsely claimed the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia “is grabbing homeless kids and kids in foster care, apparently, and experimenting on them with gender transitioning, something that is irreversible.”

The US Senate Race is Getting Closed: Oz vs. Fetterman, a Republican Lt. Gov. Martin Mastriano

The US Senate race, on the other hand, is a toss-up between Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz and Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. Fetterman, who suffered a near fatal stroke days before the primary election, will be hoping for more than just a debate with Oz on Tuesday.

The ability of Fetterman to perform his duties as a US senator is in question, due to his deafness. Fetterman is going to use closed captioned during the debate. Neurological experts have said people with auditory processing or hearing issues often use closed captioning.

It is still a tight Polling. Oz had a high unfavorable ratings among Republicans, as well as Democrats and independents, after he emerged from a brutal GOP primary. Republican voters have since come home to Oz.

They have been hammering Fetterman on rising inflation, taxes and the Green New Deal, a plan to wean the us from fossil fuels and cut greenhouse gas emissions. Fetterman was attacked as a radical socialist.

With a record homicide rate in Philadelphia in 2021, Fetterman’s opponents have interpreted this “modern direction” as a mass release of convicted criminals, including pardons for convicted murderers. Republicans are trying to capture the votes of voters like me who question Fetterman’s position on public safety because they are contrasting Shapiro’s votes with Fetterman’s.

Fetterman has hammered Oz on the issue of abortion rights in the Philadelphia media market, which is where the majority of the population lives. Fetterman has also attempted to tie Oz to Mastriano and all the baggage that comes with him.

What’s Happening in Northampton County? A CNN Perspective on What Happens When Democrats are Bullied About Inflation and Crime

Republicans are increasingly bullish on winning big in Tuesday’s midterm elections, as they slam Democrats over raging inflation and crime while President Joe Biden seeks a late reprieve by warning that GOP election deniers could destroy democracy.

Three toss-up House races are in Pennsylvania, including one in the Pittsburgh area. The race between Susan Wild, the incumbent Democratic Rep., and Lisa Scheller, the Republican challenger, is worth watching. I held the seat for nearly fifteen years and it is one of the most competitive swing districts in the country. CNN’s John King produced an excellent report on the impact Northampton County may have on the statewide races and control of Congress.

Editor’s Note: Gaby Goldstein is the co-founder of Sister District, a nonprofit group whose mission is to build progressive power in state legislatures. Mallory Roman, a social psychologist and political researcher, is the director of research at Sister District. The views expressed in this commentary are their own. CNN has more opinion on it.

How Common is Voting Down the Ballot? Detecting Voter Overage in 2020 Elections with Exit Polls: How Democratic Candidates Get More Votes Than Republicans

But even if Democrats buck historical trends and hold onto Congress, there is another cause for concern on the left: Democrats have a “roll-off” problem. We know that some people roll off their ballot, voting for candidates higher up on the ballot, but not for the state legislature. But how common is ballot roll-off, and do both parties experience it equally?

The parties sometimes experiences what is known as an overage. In this case, down-ballot candidates get more votes than their up-ballot party mates. In the cases where we saw this happen, the Republicans were more likely to experience this advantage than the Democrats.

The partisan trend only increased. There were less instances of roll-off in contested races as expected. It decreased more for Republicans than it did for Democrats.

The 2022 exit polls include interviews with thousands of voters, both those who cast a ballot on Election Day and those who voted early or absentee. The scope allows them to understand the demographic profile of voters in this year’s election. The result of the elections will be the final benchmark for their findings. The polls have margins for error, which means they are most useful when treated as estimates, rather than precise measurements. That’s particularly true before the exit poll numbers are adjusted to match final election results.

State Senate Democrats received a lower percentage of votes than Biden in Minnesota, while state Senate Republicans got a higher percentage of votes than Trump. More than 95,300 voters who voted for president in these districts did not cast a vote for state Senate at all. The Minnesota Senate seats that decided the majority were not voted on by 2,620 of them.

Democrats lost two districts and didn’t take the Senate majority by a wide margin. The difference down ballot can be made even by tiny margins of roll-off.

Breaking the Democratic Wave: The Dynamics of the Midterm Elections Biden and his Advisers During the 2008-2009 Session

Long term, it means investing in civic education, a year-round community organizing program and narrative-building of why increasing progressive state and local power will result in better outcomes for everyone.

In the short term, Democrats must make the case that state legislatures are critical to civil rights and democracy.

President Joe Biden’s noticeably sharpened political message is rooted in an intentional effort to ramp up the stakes of a midterm election campaign in its closing days, advisers say.

But it’s also a window into a view Biden and his top aides hold that there is a path to buck decades of electoral routs for a first-term president’s party – if only a few things can break Democrats’ way.

Biden, in the last four days, has candidly summarized the pendulum swing of the last several months that drove the political narrative from a looming Republican wave, to Democratic momentum, to the current moment of Republicans again eying majorities in the House and Senate.

Biden said last week that it was been back and forth with them ahead, and us ahead. “I think that we’re going to see one more shift back to our side in the closing days.”

It was a candid acknowledgment of a moment that finds Democrats once again scrambling to zero in on a message to blunt GOP momentum, a reality exacerbated by divergent views inside the party of where that message should actually land.

But Biden’s public comments also reflect the view, two weeks from the day votes will be counted, that has Democrats “very much still in the game,” one Democratic official said.

There is a definitive outstanding question as to whether that will hold, particularly in a home stretch in which the small universe of undecided voters historically breaks with the party out of power.

One Democratic campaign official said that they have been sucked back into their own firing squad. It wasn’t as good as people thought it to be at the end of the summer, but it’s not as bad as people think. But it could be if we don’t pull it together.”

The weight of that history, not to mention the acute headwinds created by economic unease that continues to rank first among voter concerns in poll after poll, aren’t lost on Biden or his advisers.

That will start to change in the days ahead, advisers say, with continued insistence that he will hit the road for bigger campaign events after weeks of intentionally smaller scale official events designed to highlight legislative accomplishments.

The Challenge of Biden’s 2017 State of the State: Implications for the Economy and the Voting Prospects for a Return to the West Wing

They point to two factors specifically on that front: gas prices, which have been on a steady downward trajectory for the last two weeks, and the third quarter GDP report, which analysts expect to show robust growth after two quarters of contraction.

Despite legislative success and a rapid recovery from the recession, the deficit on the economy is not going to flip over the course of 14 days.

But given the close correlation between gas prices and Democratic electoral prospects over the course of the last several months, they see an opportunity to at least make some gains – or fight to a draw – with undecided voters or those weighing whether to vote at all in the closing days.

It has been laid bare in a manner that officials say is particularly acute in recent weeks by the Republicans, whether it is on abortion or popular programs like Social Security and Medicare, or proposals to repeal many of the individual provisions enacted by Biden that polls in favor of Democrats.

Biden has spent the last several weeks trying to highlight individual issues that officials see as key motivators of base voters they need to turn out in a big way to counter Republican enthusiasm, either on abortion rights or his actions to cancel student loans for some borrowers.

Many people in the West Wing believed that Democrats were overly optimistic after a late summer string of major legislative wins.

All of the Democratic Senate candidates are polling with leads or close to them. If the Democrats break away from them, the Senate could be at risk, but the path is still open.

The President was in New York Thursday to promote chip manufacturing, which wasn’t in one of the most important Senate swing states. The fact that he showed up in a state he won by more than 20 points two years ago shows how his low approval ratings limit his capacity to help his party climb out of a hole.

Biden has tried to highlight some of the bright spots of the economy and claimed to have reignited manufacturing, high job creation and a robust effort to compete with China. He’s now warning that Republicans would gut Social Security and Medicare on which many Americans rely in retirement.

His approach reflected how challenging the election is for Democrats, who may lose control of the House of Representatives as their chances of retaining the Senate appear to be diminishing.

If the Republicans return to the House, they will be able to impose a vise on the legislative program of Biden and cause a series of political showdowns with respect to spending and debt-ceiling. They are promising a lot of hearings and investigations on everything from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan to the surge of migrants crossing the southern border to Biden’s son.

It is too early to judge the state of the race due to the large degree of uncertainty in polling. Biden suggested that the history of first-term presidents getting midterm election drubbing may be reestablishing itself after his party nursed hopes of bucking the trend this summer.

His speech demonstrated the political impossibility of highlighting undeniably positive aspects of the economy – including hopeful GDP growth figures released Thursday and a historically low jobless rate – when inflation is raging at near 40-year highs.

Biden’s warnings of fierce political fights with Republicans over entitlements and government spending in a possible showdown over raising the debt ceiling, meanwhile, served as a preview for what may be acrimonious years to come in Washington if political control is split between the parties.

“They’re going to shut down the government, refuse to pay America’s bills for the first time in American history to put America in default… unless we yield to their demands to cut Social Security and Medicare.”

“Nothing will create more chaos or do more damage to the American economy,” the President said, admitting that Democrats always charge Social Security is at risk in elections but also arguing that proposals by Republican Sens. Rick Scott of Florida and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin this time really do threaten the retirement program.

The issues are that the measures will have no effect on the election if they succeed. There’s a chance they could help Biden in 2024 if he decides to run for reelection, but for now, they are aspirational.

The close race in the election shows that the midterms were not only a referendum on an unpopular president, but on the economy as well. The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade brought abortion to center stage, with about 27% of voters calling it their top issue. About 6 in 10 voters felt negatively about the decision, with nearly 4 in 10 expressing anger. Democrats had a huge edge over the GOP when it came to which party voters trusted the most to handle issues regarding abortion.

A Conversation with Biden about Inflation and the State of the Economy in Georgia (after Schumer, Warnock, and Walker)

The race for New York Governor is unexpectedly competitive, as it has not elected a Republican in two decades. Hochul was with Biden in Syracuse, where she is running for the House.

The economic situation threatens to set up a classic midterm election rebuke for a first-term president – and in some ways, this would be a sign that democracy is working. For generations, elections have served as a safety valve for the public to express their displeasure with the country.

Campaigning for Democrats, former President Barack Obama talked about inflation: “Republicans are having a field day running ads talking about it, but what is their actual solution to it?” Obama had a better message than Democrats, according to Dean Obeidallah.

When a voter’s income is not keeping up with their costs, especially for the staples of everyday life like meat, bread, eggs and gasoline, they are bound to look for scapegoats. Biden is the president in power.

Biden said that the invasion ofUkraine, along with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the supply chain disruptions caused by the Pandemic, were the reasons for the hike in living costs. Republicans blame Biden for flushing the system with billions of dollars in cash and sending the economy into an overheating cycle.

In an interview with CNN’s Phil Mattingly on Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen counseled patience since many of the measures the administration has taken to boost the economy will take time to come on line.

The President said that even though inflation is lower in this country, it is not good enough for someone at the kitchen table.

Biden understood the problem that looks like it’s going to doom Democrats this election season. But there’s nothing in the short term he can do about it.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer expressed some concern Thursday over Democratic prospects in Georgia in the final weeks before the midterm elections, but he remained hopeful about Pennsylvania after the their nominee’s recent debate performance.

Herschel Walker is a Republican and incumbent Democrat in Georgia. Walker’s closing ad addresses “massive inflation” and concerns about crime under the current administration. And in a statement to the Washington Examiner, he said, “Raphael Warnock and Joe Biden have made the lives of Georgians worse than they were two years ago.”

Of Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman’s high-stakes debate performance against Republican Mehmet Oz, Schumer said: “It looks like the debate didn’t hurt us too much in Pennsylvania … so that’s good.”

The overheard comments came during a conversation among Schumer, President Joe Biden and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul on the tarmac of Hancock Field Air National Guard Base in Syracuse, New York. In his closing message for the elections, Biden painted Republicans as a threat to Americans’ pocketbooks and gave a speech in the state Thursday.

Getting Back Up in Georgia After Mehmet Oz’s Vosk: Bringing Back Up the Democrats Against Abortion in the State Capitol

The Democratic leader said his party was “picking up steam” in Nevada, where Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is among the party’s most vulnerable incumbents.

This week the Georgia race was thrown into turmoil by allegations from a woman who claims to have been in a romantic relationship with Walker. She said at press conference on Wednesday that he had pressured her into having an abortion in 1993. Walker denounced each claim as a lie, after he was accused of encouraging his former girlfriend to have the procedure. CNN has not verified the first woman’s allegations. She has remained secret in public reports.

Most polls show the Democratic Sen. Raphael Vosk with a lead over the Republican candidate in the final stretch of the campaign.

Abortion rights have been a flashpoint not only in Georgia, but in Pennsylvania, where Fetterman has looked to turn voters’ attention to Oz’s comments about the procedure in this week’s debate. Local politicians should be involved in women’s medical decisions, according to the Republican.

Fetterman told MSNBC’s Joy Reid on Thursday that he does not think Oz should be allowed a vote on the issue of abortion.

The Democratic Party immediately pounced on Oz’s comments, but the focus after the debate was on Fetterman’s stroke.

“We wanted to be and thought it was important to be there. And we showed up,” the Democrat told Reid. “And getting knocked down, I always got back up. We are running for the people of Pennsylvania who have been knocked down and need to get back up. That is the thing that we are running on.

“The real question comes down to that group of independents in the middle, and who votes at the end,” says Paul Maslin, a long-time Democratic pollster. People say that they hate inflation, crime is ruining this big city and Mehmet Oz is a clown, or they say that they apologize for Herschel Walker being a clown. … Blake Masters is a joke,’ and they go back to [the Democrats]? I don’t know. I don’t know.

Democratic hopes over the summer that Biden’s approval rating would steadily rise through Election Day, lifting their candidates in the process, have been dashed largely because of the persistence of the highest inflation in 40 years.

The problem for Democrats is that even though they passed legislation, they have not improved people’s minds in the long run. They’d be better off if inflation came down from where it has been. When people tell you that things aren’t going as well as you would like it to be, you can’t convince them.

The long-term trend is for attitudes about the sitting president to be more influential over the results, and often overshadowing the views of the competing candidates. Senate races have become like contests in a parliamentary system where less voters are looking at the merits of two candidates, instead they are looking at the picture as a whole, and that’s how they choose which party to vote for.

The Democrats did well in Pennsylvania. They ran, like Mr. Biden did in 2020. They swept every competitive House seat. John Fetterman won the race for U.S. Senate by a wider margin than Mr. Biden had won the state. Josh Shapiro was the winner of the governor’s race.

A recentNPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found that the enthusiasm of Democratic base voters is far less than that of Republican base voters. It is the last NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey before voting wraps up Tuesday.

Kelly is benefiting from the campaign’s basics: the democrat has outspent the republican and is more successful in the center than the republican. But Noble also believes that Kelly is surmounting disenchantment with Biden in part because some voters are already looking past the president as they assess the parties. The president’s job approval is not having much effect, for whatever reason. The people have accepted it’s Joe Biden and pushed him along so you don’t see the connection to the Senate vote.

Such exceptions have become rare in modern US politics. Because Biden’s standing is so weak in so many places, to hold the Senate, Democrats will almost certainly need a lot more of them.

The poll also found, though, that Republican voters are largely OK with voting for an election denier, as long as they agree on policy positions — and it found in this age of hyperpartisanship, a huge shift away from people thinking divided government is a good thing.

Key GOP groups, including older voters, Trump voters, white evangelical Christians and rural voters, are all fired up to vote. Those without college degrees are less enthusiastic about the election, but that’s driven by voters of color without degrees.

Democrats are also losing ground on the generic congressional ballot test. That’s when pollsters ask who a respondent would vote for if the election were held today, a Republican or Democrat.

It was tied at 42% in this survey, which is bad news for Democrats. They need a large lead in the House because of how districts are drawn and because of the swing districts which are right-leaning.

A small number of voters thought inflation was their main issue, and roughly 8 in 10 said it had been hard on them personally. By roughly a 12-point margin, voters said they trusted the GOP over the Democratic Party to handle inflation.

A majority of Republicans (53%) said they would “very likely” vote for someone who thought (incorrectly) that the election was stolen, as compared to one-in-five Democrats and a third of independents.

A majority of Americans have confidence in their local and state governments to conduct a fair and accurate election. Republicans were less likely to say so, but still almost two-thirds of them said they do have that confidence despite extreme rhetoric coming from candidates and people like Trump.

Now by a 53%-to-38% margin, they say it’s better for the government to be controlled by the same party. Democrats, who are seeing their majorities threatened this year, are driving that with 73% saying so, but a slim majority of independents and about half of Republicans feel the same way.

Overall, 27% of Americans have already voted with another 28% planning to vote before Election Day. Forty-three percent say they will vote in-person on Election Day.

Inflation and the Vote of the Democratic Party: An Overview of the Latest Opinion Takes of the Week from CNN and other News Sources

Along the way there were costly communications mistakes. There was a belief last spring that inflation would be gradual. That assessment proved to be wildly optimistic, and Republicans have not let voters forget it.

In remarks on inflation in May, Biden tried out a new phrase: “the ultra-MAGA agenda,” referring to a plan by Senator Rick Scott of Florida that would require Congress to reauthorize spending for Social Security and Medicare. Scott is one of the republicans who distanced themselves from the idea.

The majority did not believe that the law would reduce inflation and only a third of voters had heard of it.

Biden has spoken about the economy in speeches far more often than any other subject; he has made 22 appearances since August for midterm-related events, according my count. Even so, progressives complain that Democratic candidates neither put significant resources or energy into promoting those achievements, nor do they adequately punish Republicans for their own positions.

Sign up to receive this column as a newsletter. We’re looking back at the strongest, smartest opinion takes of the week from CNN and other outlets.

The acronym VUCA was popularized by the strategists at the US Army War College in the late 1980s. It stands for “volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity.” Or, as professors Nate Bennett and G. James Lemoine wrote years later, “Hey, it’s crazy out there!”

How Democratic Democratic Primary Voting Can Go: The Case For Doug Mastriano, the Housewife of a Low-Energy Housewife

Any incoming GOP majority would be dominated by pro-Trump radicals. The Justice Department is currently conducting criminal investigations into the conduct of former President Donald Trump and prospective committee chairs have already signaled they will try to distract the public from his wrongdoing. And Tuesday’s election could usher in scores of election deniers in state offices who could end up controlling the 2024 presidential election in some key battlegrounds. The GOP’s dominance in state legislatures could make voter rights less accessible.

The most obvious differences appeared to be the abortion and democracy issues that were at stake, state by state. In Pennsylvania, Republicans nominated a candidate for governor, Doug Mastriano, who was central to efforts to overturn the states’s 2020 presidential election results. Democrats feared that a Mastriano victory could pose a threat to the government. It might have threatened another longstanding right since Mr. Mastriano is an abortion opponent and Republicans controlled the state Legislature.

Democrats think their warnings about the future of democracy are amply justified. Dean Obeidallah was of the opinion that losing our democracy could be permanent. The Washington Post has reported that most of the GOP nominees on the 2020 ballot have denied or questioned how the election is going to go. If ever there was a thing like this in the history of the United States, we have never seen it before.

The economy is high up on the agenda for voters. “It’s nothing new,” wrote historian Meg Jacobs. She pointed out that the first televised political advertisement, for the winning Republican presidential candidate Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, focused on inflation. “In the ad, he talks to an ‘average’ housewife, who complains that ‘high prices are just driving me crazy,’ and Eisenhower promises to fight on her behalf. That was at a time when inflation was less than 2%!”

Mark Wolfe, Executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association wrote in a letter that rising energy prices are being felt particularly by low-income households.

Midterms Are Vuca Elections: Where Are We Going? Which is Yours? What will you do? Who will fight for your freedom?

The perfect closing question for voters was: Who will fight for your freedom? Obeidallah observed, “The answer clearly is the Democratic Party, and the former President delivered that message, pointing to threats to reproductive rights and same-sex marriage by some Republicans.”

Having Obama make the closing argument “might not be such a great idea,” wrote Republican Marc A. Thiessen in the Washington Post. There is no doubt that Obama’s record of helping down-ballot Democrats is less than stellar. In fact, Obama presided over the loss of more House, Senate, state legislative and governors’ seats than any president in U.S. history… It is not surprising that many Democrats don’t want Biden to join them on the campaign trail. But Obama may not be the savior they are hoping for. He may be electoral kryptonite based on his disastrous record.

A note to our readers: On Tuesday, pivotal races will decide who controls the House, Senate and dozens of governorships across the country. You can follow the contests that matter to you and build a custom dashboard with CNN’s My Election tool. Log in or create your free CNN account to get started.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/06/opinions/midterms-are-vuca-election-opinion-column-galant/index.html

The Murder of a Murderer During the January 6, 2021, Baltimore, NY Police Officer and an Overt attempt to End Our Democracy

A former Metropolitan Police officer who was injured in the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol wrote a post about why so many Americans still don’t care about what happened. Most Americans don’t seem to care. An overt attempt to end our democracy? Meh…”

“In our democracy, there is one party that is doubting the outcome of the election, feeding that flame, and mocking any violence that happens. It has to stop, Pelosi said.

About three-quarters of the states have an initiative for a vote this year. Joshua A. Douglas wrote about democracy being on the ballot in 2 years. “Not only do we have candidates who have questioned the 2020 election or refuse to say they will accept defeat this year, but numerous states and localities also will vote on measures to change how elections are run or who may vote in them.”

Trump also vowed to make “a very big announcement” at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida on November 15, which appears to be the worst kept secret in politics – that he will seek another term in the White House. The turbulence of our time is highlighted by the fact that a twice-impeached president has a good chance of winning.

“The Republicans remain a strongly united party. It’s not much that can shake the unity. … the ‘Never Trump’ contingent failed to emerge as a dominant force. Liz Cheney was one of the officials who were kicked out of the party.

If Republicans do well in next week’s elections, then members of the party will be more confident in their economic and culture talking points going into the future. And given the number of election-denying candidates in the midterms, a strong showing will likely create the tailwinds for the GOP to unite behind Trump.”

Zelizer wrote that Trump himself would feel like a hero. There are criminal investigations of Trump and he is still a viable political figure. … It will be difficult to prosecute Trump once he becomes a candidate. Trump will claim that any investigation is simply a politically motivated witch hunt that is meant to take him out of the running.

The First Few Days of Twitter Acquisition for Mr. Musk: Enforcing the Enlightenment about Jewish Discrimination against Russians and Chinese

“The chorus of outrage about West’s disgusting attack on Jews was for many days muted – even factoring in the businesses that severed relationships with him,” Carter wrote. There was a surge of antisemitic comments inalt right online communities despite the fact that there had been underplayed the impact of someone who was a big and famous star.

The first few days of Musk controlling Twitter have been chaotic, with him spreading misinformation, laying off a lot of people and sharing the idea of charging for verification status.

“Musk is making the remarkable power that US tech executives hold over our lives, from geopolitics to the health of democracy, painfully tangible to all,” wrote Marietje Schaake in the Financial Times.

“Immediately after the sale was confirmed, the number of neo-Nazi and racist tweets exploded on the site. Accounts marked as being linked to Russian and Chinese state media requested that the Twitter labels indicating as much be removed. Speculation about whether Musk would reverse the account ban for extremists, conspiracy theorists or Donald Trump himself was rife.”

Rob Norman wrote in the New York Times that Musk had placed no limits on his own speech, and that it seemed likely that he would enable the inflammatory, provocative and sometimes verifiably untrue speech of others.

From representing the world’s biggest buyer of advertising space that advertisers worry a lot about these things. In this case advertisers worry could lead to them leaving in large numbers, costing Twitter most of its revenue. Without that revenue, Twitter could be a calamitous acquisition for Mr. Musk, and the very future of the platform could be at risk.”

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/06/opinions/midterms-are-vuca-election-opinion-column-galant/index.html

Midterms are Vuca Elections Column Galadex: Martha Hickson, the worst year of her working life in New Jersey

Martha Hickson, a high school librarian in New Jersey for more than a decade, called it the worst year of her working life. There were protesters at a school board meeting in 2021, who railed against a memoir and a novel. They spewed selected sentences from the Evison book, while brandishing isolated images from Kobabe’s.”

They attacked Banned Books Week, which celebrates the freedom to read. The protesters said it was a plot to lure children to degradation.

The real sucker punch came when a protester branded me a pedophile, pornographer and child molester. It was hard to be cast as a villain after a successful career.

It was worse than the response from my employer. The board sat in silence that night, and for the next five months refused to utter a word in my defense.”

Hickson’s piece was the concluding personal essay in CNN Opinion’s series on midterm issues, “America’s Future Starts Now.” Nine education experts also weighed in with thoughts on how to move America’s schools forward.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/06/opinions/midterms-are-vuca-election-opinion-column-galant/index.html

Celestial Avatars: Celebrity Candidates in a Right-Wing Governing coalition and the Marriage of Bndchen and Brady

There were familiar faces after the elections in Latin America and the Middle East. In Brazil, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva “posted a stunning political comeback,” beating the incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro, Arick Wierson wrote.

“Not since the end of the military dictatorship in the 1980s have Brazilians been faced with two more starkly contrasting candidates, each with diametrically opposing political outlooks for the country,” Wierson wrote. And “it’s clear that a sizable percentage of the voting population didn’t buy into either of their visions for the country.”

The Israeli election last week gave former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu a chance to form a right-wing governing coalition.

“Likud is the most stable and durable political party in Israel’s system. Netanyahu is its master and Israel is a nation now shaped more by the right wing – and perhaps its most extreme elements – than at any point in its history.”

This isn’t only about the couple, Filipovic made clear. For our own desires, celebrities end up asavatars for us. The story could tell us more about the marriage of Bndchen and Brady, and about the still-unfinished work of equality in American marriages.

Bndchen commented on the worry about Brady’s health playing a dangerous sport and his desire to be with their family after sacrificing so much for his career.

This is a familiar and frustrating situation, where the woman who steps back to care for her children and makes sure her husband succeeds and the husband who doesn’t appreciate that sacrifice and continues to push professionally far past when he needs to, at the expense of his family.

The 2016 Midterm Election Campaign: Joe Biden, the House Speaker, and the Future of the American Political Economy and the Next-Generation Agenda

Alice Stewart is a CNN Political Commentator and board member at the John F. Kennedy Institute of Politics. The views expressed in this commentary are not of hers. Read more opinion on CNN.

Let me repeat what I often say: there is no widespread voter fraud in the country, Joe Biden is our duly elected president, having won the 2020 election, and the January 6 attack on the US Capitol was wrong. Those who believe otherwise should face some level of scrutiny. The problem is, people in flyover states can’t afford the luxury of casting a ballot to feed the “democracy is in peril” narrative; they have to feed their family.

Meanwhile, Republican candidates have focused on issues that are top of mind for families and voters across the country: lowering prices of food and fuel, keeping communities safe, and investing in education.

The GOP plan to fight inflation was given by Kevin McCarthy. His plan includes pro-growth tax policies, which will help reduce gas prices. McCarthy outlined a plan to address safety by providing support for law enforcement and securing the border.

In New Hampshire, Republican Senate candidate Dan Bolduc was smart to focus on the “heating and eating” issues that weigh on Granite State voters in the final debate against Sen. Maggie Hassan.

Today we have inflation woes, crime waves, reproductive rights debates, border battles, and racial conflicts. Each issue is intertwined with anxiety for voters and elected officials.

The Republicans highlighted the message that the government is the problem in order to match the growing anti-Washington sentiment. People wanted change and looked to the GOP to provide that in 1994. I think that will happen in 2022.

The GOP is poised to take back the Senate and House because they have listened, heard and offered solutions. Democrats have been tone deaf when it comes to the real issues impacting Americans, choosing to focus on threats to democracy over everyday concerns about the cost of groceries and gas. The election is about the need to feed families, not the fear of a fallen Democracy.

Democrats close their midterm election campaign Monday facing the nightmare scenario they always feared – with Republicans staging a gleeful referendum on Joe Biden’s struggling presidency and failure to tame inflation.

It’s too early for postmortems. Around forty million Americans are eligible to vote. And the uncertainty baked into modern polling means no one can be sure a red wave is coming. Democrats could still cling onto the Senate even if the House falls.

But the way each side is talking on election eve, and the swathe of blue territory – from New York to Washington state – that Democrats are defending offer a clear picture of GOP momentum.

A nation split down the middle politically, which is united only by a sense of dissatisfaction with its trajectory, is getting into a habit of repeatedly using elections to punish the party with the most power.

Are Republicans Really Just Deniers? Sensitivities to the Problem of Inflation, Crime, Education, and Healthcare in the 21st Century

The Republican NationalCommittee Chair, Ronna McDaniel, said the Democrats are inflation deniers, crime deniers, and education deniers on Sunday.

“I’m a loyal Democrat, but I am not happy. I just think that we are – we did not listen to voters in this election. “I think that we’re going to have a bad night, and that’s the reason I’m telling Dana Bash.”

“And this conversation is not going to have much impact on Tuesday, but I hope it has an impact going forward, because when voters tell you over and over and over again that they care mostly about the economy, listen to them. Stop talking about democracy being at stake.”

It’s on the ballot. This is a defining moment for the nation. And we all must speak with one voice regardless of our party. There’s no place in America for political violence,” Biden said.

It’s a message that resonates strongly in Washington, DC, where the scars of the US Capitol insurrection are keenly felt. And it is undeniably important because the survival of the world’s most important democracy is at stake. After all, an insurrection that tried to disrupt the tradition of peaceful transfers of power between presidents was instigated by Trump.

Outside the Beltway bubble of politicians and reporters, democracy is a far cry from the daily struggle to feed a family and afford to commute to work. From Pennsylvania to Arizona, the return to normality after the Covid-19 nightmare that Biden promised remains elusive to many as the economic after effects of the once-in-a century health emergency linger.

The premise of his domestic presidency and his entire political career has been based on restoring the balance of the economy and restoring a measure of security to working and middle class Americans. The cost of health care for seniors could be brought down, and Americans could be protected from high energy prices in the future, because of his legislative successes. But the benefits from such measures will take years to arrive. And millions of voters are hurting now and haven’t heard a viable plan from the president to quickly ease prices in the short-term.

There is no guarantee that plans by Republicans to extend Trump-era tax cuts and mandate new energy drilling would have much impact on the inflation crisis either. And divided government would likely mean a stalemate between two dueling economic visions. The election has turned into a vehicle for people to stress out and hope that things will improve in the near future.

Even if a president were to do nothing, inflation would not fall on their own. The Federal Reserve is in the lead and the central bank’s strategy of rising interest rates could trigger a recession that could further haunt Biden’s presidency.

The Republican Party also got exactly what it wanted as Trump has delayed his expected campaign announcement until after the midterms, depriving Biden of the opportunity to shape this election as a direct clash with an insurrectionist predecessor whom he beat in 2020 and who remains broadly unpopular. Such a confrontation might have enabled the president to dampen the impact of his own low approval ratings and win over voters who still disdain the twice-impeached former president.

The growing angst amongst Democrats and the fact that four current and former president took to the campaign trail over the weekend are all signs of the critical stakes.

The campaign for the Senate in Ohio that Ex-President Trump used to help to show his enduring magnetism among grassroots Republicans, will end with a rally on Monday. In a speech that concluded in pouring rain for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio on Sunday, Trump predicted voters would “elect an incredible slate of true MAGA warriors to Congress.”

While campaigning for Obama in Pennsylvania, Biden warned that the core values of the nation are in danger because of the Republicans who deny the truth about the Capitol insurrection and the attacks on Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Paul.

The president is expected to lose the election at a Democratic event in Maryland. He won’t be doing anything to help an expendable lawmaker in a key race on the final night, which reflects his low approval ratings and compromised standing in the election.

The Anatomy of the ‘Electorate’ after the First Midterm Election: Where Do the Pedestrians Go? Why Biden, the Presiding Governor, and the Head of State

Ronna McDaniel predicted on “State of the Union” that the Republican party would win the House and the Senate, while accusing Biden of being oblivious to the economic anxiety among Americans with his warnings about democracy.

The president warned in Pittsburgh that the GOP’s concern over the economy was a ruse and that they would cut social security and medicare if they won a majority.

“Look, they’re all about the wealthier getting wealthy. And the very wealthy still stay rich. The middle class gets stiffed. The poor get poorer under their policy,” Biden said.

The midterms are the first national vote since the chaos and violence triggered by Trump’s refusal to accept the result of the last presidential election and there are already fears that some Republican candidates may follow his example and try to defy the will of voters if they don’t win. Some, like Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, have already raised concerns about the integrity of the vote.

The headquarters of the pro- Trump nominee for Arizona Governor opened a suspicious white powder letter on Sunday. The current Arizona Secretary of State, whose name was Lake, called the incident incredibly concerning.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/07/politics/election-eve-campaigning/index.html

First clashes of the 2024 GOP: Ron DeSantis, Bill Clinton, and the Brooklyn governor, Kathy Hochul, with Rob Hochul

The first major clashes of the 2024 GOP nominating contest, meanwhile, broke out in Florida with Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis holding dueling rallies Sunday night. The ex-president, who is expected to launch a third White House bid within days, coined a new nickname Saturday for the man who could prove to be his toughest primary opponent: “Ron DeSanctimonious.”

But the Florida governor didn’t engage, turning his ire on Biden and calling Crist a donkey instead, because he was taking credit for ignoring Washington officials during the Pandemic.

Trump once more teased the possibility of a presidential run as he rallied for the candidate who is seeking reelection. In another sign the next presidential race is stirring, Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton, who has long eyed higher office, announced he would not join the Republican primary.

Bill Clinton was in Brooklyn to speak for Kathy Hochul, the governor of New York. The Empire state should be safe territory for his party but Hochul’s closer-than-expected reelection race against Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin underscores the toughness of the national environment for Democrats.

Your life is at stake, and the average election rally is just a get out the vote event. For young people in the audience, your life is on the line,” Clinton said.

A GOP majority would contain scores of candidates in Trump’s extreme image and would be weaponized to damage the president as much as possible ahead of a potential rematch with Trump in 2024. And a Republican Senate would frustrate Biden’s hopes of balancing out the judiciary after four years of Trump nominating conservative judges.

The Evolution of Independent Voters in the Post-Trump Era: CNN Observations and the Case of a Democratic Senate Candidate

Editor’s Note: John Avlon is a CNN senior political analyst and anchor. He is the author of “Lincoln and the Fight for Peace.” His views are his own in this commentary. CNN has more opinion on it.

It makes sense: There are more self-identified independent voters than either Republicans or Democrats, according to a recent Gallup Poll. In nine states, there are independent voters outnumbering Democrats or Republicans, from New England to North Carolina and even Alaska. Their numbers have grown precisely as the two parties have gotten more focused on playing to the base, a dynamic The Washington Post describes as a side effect of divisive politics.

The movement of independent voters to the Republicans was indistinguishable from the 2010 tea party wave election, with a 16 point margin of victory in exit polls.

People who first self-identify as independent voters are asked a second time to change their minds and join the existing two parties.

There are some independents who are conservative and others who are liberal, but the majority are in the moderate mainstream — less motivated by an ideological policy agenda than a desire to decrease polarization by counterbalancing the party in power, especially in times of one-party rule over Washington — as The Washington Post’s Perry Bacon Jr. broke down in a column Sunday.

This instinct that divided government will provide a check and balance on partisan excess is less true in the post-truth, post-Trump era, where GOP moderates account for less than a quarter of their party. But this dynamic does help account for the independent Senate candidacy of Evan McMullin in Utah to challenge incumbent GOP Sen. Mike Lee — giving residents of that dependably conservative state their first competitive race in decades.

An election that is more likely to cement its divisions than promote unity takes place Tuesday for a nation worn down by crises and economic anxieties.

When there is an election, the country is often set on a new path by the people choosing their leaders and the leaders accepting the results.

The Case for Biden: A Manic Midterm Fractitious Politics of a Bald Republican Congressman and an Adolescent Senator

It looks like Tuesday is going to be difficult for Biden. The president did not spend the final hours of the campaign battling to get vulnerable Democrats over the line in a critical swing state. Instead, he was in the liberal bastion of Maryland – a safe haven where his low approval ratings likely won’t hurt Democrats running for office. While he did stump for Pennsylvania Senate nominee John Fetterman over the weekend, the venue of his final event encapsulated his drained political juice as he contemplates a 2024 reelection campaign.

Even though he did not get on the ballot, Trump was all about himself and he claimed that he did not want to overshadow the Republican candidates. At a rally ostensibly for GOP Senate nominee J.D. Vance in Ohio, Trump unleashed a dystopian, self-indulgent dirge of a speech laced with demagoguery, exaggerated claims that America was in terminal decline, and outright falsehoods about the 2020 election. And he laid the groundwork to proclaim he is the victim of totalitarian state-style persecution if he is indicted in several criminal probes into his conduct.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who is the likely next speaker if Republicans net the five seats they need for the House majority, blamed Democrats for heated political rhetoric as he laid out an aggressive agenda, targeting border security and relentless investigations in an exclusive interview with CNN. The conference is already demanding the removal of Biden, and he did not rule it out.

McCarthy told Melanie that impeachment will not be used for political purposes. If something rises to the occasion, it would be used at some point in the future.

If Republicans take the Senate, Ron Johnson said he would use the power he was given to further crank up investigations if he wins reelection.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/08/politics/midterm-fractious-political-environment-analysis/index.html

The New York Times: How Democratic Issues Shaped the Midterm Elections in New York and Ohio, and Where Do We Are Today?

There’s something magical about democratic elections, when differences are exposed in debates and fierce campaigns. But there’s mostly, until now, been an expectation that both sides would then abide by the verdict of the people.

The two issues were less critical in New York. There was no chance that abortion rights would be jeopardized by the Democratic Legislature. No movement emerged in 2020 to overturn Mr. Biden’s victory in New York, and there is little indication that anyone feared Mr. Zeldin might do so. As a result, Republicans focused the campaign on crime. And it worked out.

In Texas and Colorado, there are exceptions such as Republican strength and Democratic strength. But most of each party’s most impressive showings fit well.

There’s the Republican landslide in Florida, where the stop-the-steal movement never sought to overturn an election result and where Gov. Ron DeSantis refused to go further than a 15-week abortion ban. There are the Democratic successes in Kansas and Michigan, where abortion referendums were on the ballot at different points this year, and where Democrats swept the most competitive House districts.

The pattern also helps explain some outliers in particular states. In Ohio, Representative Marcy Kaptur trounced her Republican opponent, J.R. Majewski, who had rallied at the Capitol on Jan. 6 and misrepresented his military service. She won by 13 points in a district that Mr. Trump won in 2020. Almost every other Republican in House races in Ohio performed better than Mr. Trump had.

The CNN Exit Polls: An Empirical Study of the National Election Pool (Possibility of Elections During the 2011 Election Season)

The CNN exit polls are a mixture of in- person interviews with election day voters and in- person interviews with other people. They were done for the National Election Pool. Read more here.