The War Between Russia and the EU: Why Do We Live Here Now? Vladimir Putin and the Crisis of the Kremlin in the Cold Cold War

The actions of Russia have no legitimacy and the US will always honor the borders of Ukraine, according to President Biden. The European Union said it “will never” recognize the Kremlin’s “illegal annexation,” and described the move as a “further violation of Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

He called on Ukraine to “cease fire” immediately and “sit down at the negotiating table,” but added: “We will not negotiate the choice of the people. It has been done. Russia will not betray it.”

The Russian International Affairs Council in Moscow is headed by Kortunov. “President Putin wants to end this whole thing as fast as possible,” he told CNN.

Putin’s recent drive to draft 300,000 troops won’t reverse his battlefield losses any time soon, and is backfiring at home, forcing him up a dangerous political tab.

About 220,000 Russians have left their borders since the “partial mobilized” was announced, according to official data from the EU. The EU said its numbers – nearly 66,000 – represented a more than 30% increase from the previous week.

CNN is unable to verify the Russian figures, but the 40 kilometers (around 25 miles) traffic tailbacks at the border with Georgia, and the long lines at crossings into Kazakhstan and Finland, speak to the backlash and the strengthening perception that Putin is losing his fabled touch at reading Russia’s mood.

Kortunov says he doesn’t know what goes on in the Kremlin but that he understands the public mood over the huge costs and loss of life in the war. Many people would ask why we got into this mess. We lost a lot of people.

He used the same approach to annexing the strip of land from Ukraine in 2014; if the country tries to take it back, he would threaten a nuclear strike.

Western leaders are in a battle of brinksmanship with Putin. Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that Washington would respond harshly if Russia used nukes against Ukraine.

The Second Russian Explosion of Deep Inelastic Nuclear Scattering by the Danes and the Germans During the September 11 Reaction

The first explosion took place at 2 a.m., while the second took place at 7 p.m.

Within hours, roiling patches of sea were discovered, the Danes and the Germans sent warships to secure the area, and Norway increased security around its oil and gas facilities.

Four leaks at the surface resembling a boiling cauldron, the largest one kilometer across, together leaking industrial quantities of toxic Greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, have been discovered so far by the Russians.

Western intelligence sources have said that Russian navy vessels were seen by European security officials. NATO’s North Atlantic Council has described the damage as a “deliberate, reckless and irresponsible act of sabotage.”

Nord Stream 2 was never operational, and Nord Stream 1 had been throttled back by Putin as Europe raced to replenish gas reserves ahead of winter, while dialling back demands for Russian supplies and searching for replacement providers.

If it’s really Putin’s plan, it could be his biggest strategic mistake yet. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said this summer that there was little appetite in the west for him to stay in power.

Having failed in the face of Western military unity, Putin is now looking to divide Western allies over terms for peace.

France and Germany need to convince Putin to end the war, they need to put pressure on the Ukranian government to do the right thing, and they need to protect their territories at all costs.

“We continue to monitor his nuclear capabilities, Kate, best we can. And what I can tell you today is that we just don’t see any indications that Mr. Putin has made a decision to use weapons of mass destruction or even nuclear weapons. And we’ve seen nothing, Kate, that would give us cause to change our own deterrent posture,” Kirby said.

The Zlatev Negotiation with the Ukraine During the November 2021 Ukrainian Invasion: An Analysis of Biden’s Speech to the White House

Martin Zlatev fell out with his partner at a limousine company and now seeks to work with the Ukrainian military to sell $30 million worth of rockets.

They wrote to the ministry that time is of the essence. They plan to sell the arms to Ukraine.

The Biden administration fast-tracked hundreds of millions of dollars in private arms sales to the Ukraine after the Russian invasion, cutting the approval process in half. The State Department gave authorization for more than $300 million in private deals to the Ukraine in the first four months of the year, according to government documents. During the entire fiscal year of 2021, the department allowed less than fifteen million dollars of such sales to Ukraine.

For weeks now, Mr. Biden’s aides have been debating whether there might be an analogous understanding, a way for the wounded Russian leader to find an out. They don’t give details, they know that it’ll be difficult to get out and avoid the conditions that might allow Mr. Putin to get his nuclear weapons. Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, reiterated on Friday that Mr. Biden had no new intelligence about nuclear weapons use and said she “saw no indications” the Russians were “preparing to use them.”

Mr. Biden referred to the Cuban Missile Crisis twice in his comments at a Democratic fund-raiser in New York, which is indicative of what is on his mind. 60 years ago this month, John F. Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev struck a deal to remove American missiles from Turkey.

With that deal, a disaster that could have killed tens of millions of Americans and even more Soviet citizens was averted.

What the US is doing to support Ukraine: a statement from the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine and an update on Russian air-defense policy

The Secretary of State spoke with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister to let him know that the US was behind him. Biden is expected on Tuesday to join an emergency video conference with G7 leaders during which Zelensky is expected to address the group.

The statement said Biden underscored his engagement with allies and partners, holding Russia accountable for its war crimes and atrocities, and providing Ukraine with security, economic and humanitarian assistance.

The US will not change its stance on providing short- and long-range air defense systems for Ukraine, a senior administration official told reporters when asked if the attacks of the past 24 hours would change that stance.

The US has yet to deliver NASAMS to Ukraine according to the Department of Defense. At the time, Brig. The General said that two systems would be delivered in the next two months and that 6 more would be delivered before the end of the year.

Russia launched a number of cruise missiles against targets across Ukraine on Monday, according to a Facebook post.

The citizens of Ukraine are particularly vulnerable in the face of Russian air strikes. Dmitri Alperovitch calls this “the blackmail of energy by cutting off gas supplies, by shutting off electricity, by bombing electric substations all over Ukraine.” He said that Putin’s strategy will cause pain. But he added, “when your kids are dying, you’re going to keep fighting even if you don’t have heat, even if your economy of your country is in dire straits. I think he’s wrong on this front.

Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, also recently said he thinks Moscow should aim for the “complete dismantling” of Zelensky’s “regime.”

John Kirby, a spokesperson for the National Security Council, said Monday that there will likely be additional support packages for Ukraine announced “in the very near future.”

Kirby said that he can only talk about how he reacts to the pressure at home and overseas.

David Petraeus: The War in Ukraine vs. Putin’s Memory of an Obstacle, but not an End Game

Meanwhile, the fast approaching winter will likely slow the pace of the war, but is not expected to halt the fighting. The weather favors the Ukrainians on the battlefield, claims David Petraeus. Ukrainians can knock on the door and then be taken in to get a bowl of soup from their fellow citizens. And of course, they’re welcomed as liberators, whereas the Russian occupiers, the Ukrainians are trying to kill them,” he said.

“Even if President (Volodymyr) Zelenskyy reached some conclusion that maybe we should, to stop the punishment, we should negotiate. I don’t think he can do it because of the conviction of the Ukrainian people.

The annual conference in Sea Island was hosted by The Cipher Brief, a group that brings together people in the national security community to look at the big picture.

A year ago, this conference focused on China. The only thing that was being said was about Russia invading Ukraine. But this time the theme was the war in Ukraine — where it’s headed, and how it might end.

The chief of staff to the president of the country told the conference that the conflict has to end with a victory on the battlefield.

But Paul Kolbe, a former CIA officer who runs the Intelligence Project at Harvard’s Kennedy School, says the Russian leader is not looking for a way out of the conflict. He says it’s the opposite. “Putin’s memory of an obstacle is what he uses to escalate when he’s running into something,” Kolbe said. “There’s a lot of tricks he can still pull out to try to undermine morale in Ukraine and in the West.”

Over the past 10 days, Russia launched new long-range missile and drone strikes at targets in the capital city of Ukraine and other Ukrainian cities.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/10/18/1129396409/in-ukraine-trend-lines-point-to-escalation-not-an-endgame

The burning of bridges: Why is Russia interested in talking about a resolution of the Georgia crisis? Reply to Milley at the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday

“That’s essentially a metaphor burning of bridges,” said Alperovitch. “What this means is that this war is likely to continue for many, many months, potentially many years, as long as he’s in power and as long as he has the resources to continue fighting.”

No one at the Georgia conference suggested the war was close to an end. “Negotiating a solution to a war is the norm, but I don’t see any prospect of talks in the near term,” said Paul Klee, the former CIA official.

The war began with a Russian invasion, he noted, and is now as intense as ever. Greg Myre is a national security correspondent for NPR. Follow him on social media.

But Milley’s position is not widely backed by President Joe Biden’s national security team, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan, neither of whom believe it’s time to make a serious push for talks over Ukraine, according to two administration officials familiar with the discussion.

A renewed effort to negotiate an end to the fighting is being debated inside the administration, according to officials.

Milley’s push for peace has spilled into the public in recent days, just as Ukraine takes back the city of Kherson. In comments at the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday, Milley praised the Ukrainian army for fighting Russia to a stalemate, but said that an outright military victory is out of reach.

The comments left administration officials unsurprised – given Milley’s advocacy for the position internally – but also raised concerned among some about the administration appearing divided in the eyes of the Kremlin.

Sources tell CNN that most of the top diplomatic and national security officials are not interested in giving Russian President Putin any sort of leverage at the negotiating table as long as they don’t think Ukrainians should decide when to hold talks.

In internal deliberations, officials said Milley has sought to make it clear that he is not urging a Ukrainian capitulation, but rather that he believes now is an optimal time to drive toward an end to the war before it drags into spring or beyond, leading to more death and destruction without changing the front lines.

But that view is not widely held across the administration. The State Department is located on the opposite side of the pole from Milley. That dynamic has led to a situation where military brass are more interested in diplomacy than US diplomats.

Milley’s position comes as the US military has dug deep into US weapons stockpiles to support the Ukrainians and is currently scouring the globe for materials to support Ukraine heading into winter – such as heaters and generators – which has raised concerns about how long this war can be sustained, officials said.

The US intends to buy 100,000 rounds of weapons from South Korean arms manufacturers and provide them to the Ukrainian army, according to a US official. As part of the deal, the US will purchase 100,000 rounds of 155mm howitzer ammunition, which will then be transferred to Ukraine through the US.

The US will not waver, nor flagging, nor flinching in our support of Ukraine, as outlined in the Sullivan Manifesto

The State Department did not say whether the department agreed with Milley’s position. Price shifted the blame to the US side who have said that a diplomatic solution is needed.

“The United States is going to be with Ukraine for as long as it takes in this fight,” Sullivan said in a recent visit to Ukraine. “There will be no wavering, no flagging, no flinching in our support as we go forward.”