What Do Most Americans Care About Elections? The Effects of Biden’s Unpopularity on Elections, the Economy and Inflation, and Other Issues

Nearly half of voters say President Joe Biden will not be a factor in their vote for Congress (47%), but those who do feel their vote will be cast to send a message are more apt to be sending one of opposition (28%) than support (23%). The Republicans are less likely to say they are voting to oppose Biden than the Democrats are. In competitive congressional districts, the gap is even larger, with 61% of Republicans saying they will vote against the President, while only 45% say they’re voting to show support.

Republican registered voters nationwide and in competitive congressional districts are a bit more likely to say they are deeply motivated to vote than are Democratic registered voters (52% extremely motivated among Republicans nationally, 46% among Democrats; in competitive districts, it’s 55% among Republicans vs. 45% among Democrats).

Democratic candidates do hold some advantages, though. Registered voters nationwide are more likely to see local Democratic candidates than their Republican rivals as caring about people like them (40% to 34%), working to protect democracy (43% to 36%), and uniting the country rather than dividing it (37% to 31%). And voters are more likely to see Republican candidates as too extreme (40%) than Democratic ones (36%).

The economy and inflation remain a central focus for nearly all voters, with broad majorities saying each of those is extremely or very important in deciding their vote for who to send to Congress (90% economy, 84% inflation). Both voting rights and gun policy are important. Less than 70% of people agree that abortion or immigration are important to their vote.

According to the results of the same poll released Wednesday, views of the economy remain sharply negative, but they have rebounded somewhat from summer lows. With that shift, Democrats and independents have become less likely to consider the economy or inflation a deeply critical issue. The wide gaps in party priorities that have been consistent in polling this year have grown as a result of the shift.

Biden has weighed in heavily on these elections as a result of his unpopularity with the poll found that former President Trump is equally unpopular. He’s endorsed scores of candidates, many of whom have emulated him, perpetuated his election lies and struggled in purple states.

The survey of 1,586 adults and 1, 480 registered voters was sponsored by the Marist Poll and PBS NewsHour. There is about a +/- 4 percentage point margin of error, meaning results could be 4 points lower or higher than what’s listed.

Democrats had a golden summer. The surge in voter registration was caused by the Dobbs decision. Voters handed Democrats a string of sweet victories in unlikely places — Alaska and Kansas, and good news in upstate New York.

There were some huge numbers contained in the poll. Democrats were counting on abortion rights to be a big issue, gaining them broad support among female voters. It seems like it isn’t working. The gender gap, used to favor Democrats, has evaporated over the past month. In September, women who identified as independent voters favored Democrats by 14 points. They favor the Republicans by 18 percentage points.

To understand how the parties think the campaign is going, look at where they are spending their money. The Washington Post reported last week that the Democrats are putting money into House districts that Joe Biden won by double digits. The races in California’s 13th District and Oregon’s Sixth District are now labeled as tossups by Politico. Two years ago, according to Politico, he won those areas by 11 and 14 points.

Democrats are losing ground on a generic congressional ballot test. That’s when pollsters ask who a respondent would vote for if the election were held today, a Republican or Democrat.

There is uncertainty with just days to go in the election. Most midterms are referenda on the sitting president and the party in power. It’s mostly the case with Biden’s approval rating going down, Democrats losing ground on which voters want control of Congress and voters saying that they trust Republicans more on the inflation issue.

More than four-in-five Republicans said they would “likely” vote for a candidates they agree with on most issues — even if that candidate thinks the 2020 election was stolen, which it was not.

While white women with college degrees, who are an important bloc for Democrats, are among the most enthusiastic to vote, Black voters, Latinos and young voters are among the least.

In this survey, it’s tied 46%-46% — and that tends to be bad news for Democrats. Historically, they have needed a substantial lead on that question to do well in the House, because of how districts are drawn and with swing districts largely in right-leaning places.

Republicans are trusted by wide margins on inflation (R+20), crime (R+16) and immigration (R+12), the three issues the GOP has focused on most in these elections.

If their preferred candidate was declared the loser, Republicans were less likely to say they should concede. While almost two-thirds of Democrats said so, only 39% of Republicans did.

Most Americans have confidence in their local and state governments to conduct a fair and accurate election. Republicans were less likely to say so, but still almost two-thirds of them said they do have that confidence despite extreme rhetoric coming from candidates and people like Trump.

They say it’s better for the government to be controlled by the same party. Democrats, who are seeing their majority at risk this year, are driving that, but only a small minority of independents and about half of Republicans agree.

Also, overall, 27% of Americans say they have already voted with another 28% saying they plan to vote before Election Day. Forty-three percent say they will vote in-person on Election Day.

Independent Voters vs. Republicans: How Divided Government Can Prevent Disenfranchisement in the Post-Trump Era

Editor’s Note: John Avlon is a CNN senior political analyst and anchor. He is the author of “Lincoln and the Fight for Peace.” The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

America’s polarized, hyperpartisan politics are the prime driver of our division and dysfunction. The rise of independent voters represents a healthy pushback against that dynamic, a demand for something different.

The movement of independent voters to Republicans continued in the 2010 election with a 16-point exit poll showing that tea party voters turned out in larger numbers than in the previous election.

In many polls, people who initially self-identify as independent voters are often asked a second time to join one of the two parties.

There are some independents who are conservative and others who are liberal but the majority are moderate, not because of their ideological policy agenda but because of their desire to counterbalance the power of one party in power, as The Washington Post explains.

This instinct that divided government will provide a check and balance on partisan excess is less true in the post-truth, post-Trump era, where GOP moderates account for less than a quarter of their party. But this dynamic does help account for the independent Senate candidacy of Evan McMullin in Utah to challenge incumbent GOP Sen. Mike Lee — giving residents of that dependably conservative state their first competitive race in decades.