What GOP Candidates Think About the Views of the 2020 Election: Are They Afraid of Biden, Hobbs, Markers, and the Blue State?
One of the big questions heading into the 2022 cycle had been how Republican candidates would or not reflect the GOP base when it came to views of the 2020 election. Poll after poll has shown that a clear majority of Republicans falsely believe that President Joe Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election.
A lot of Republicans running for office think the same thing. I wonder if any of those candidates will run states where elections are close. The answer most of the time is no. Most election deniers running for governor have only a small chance of winning or are from states former President Donald Trump easily won.
Clinton won the state of Arizona in 1996 as a Democratic presidential nominee, and Biden did the same in 2020. Biden and Clinton are the only Democratic nominees who have won the state in the last 70 years.
Three polls out this past week, which were all well within the margin of error, illustrate the point well. Lake and Hobbs were both tied at 49% in a CBS News/YouGov poll. Fox’s poll put Hobbs at 44% to Lake’s 43%. Marist College had Lake at 46% and Hobbs at 45%.
On that issue, Lake – like Masters – is an election denier. Indeed, that’s what makes Lake so unique. There are other Republicans who are in a position to win the governorship of close 2020 states this year, and nearly all of them have either tried to have it both ways on the most recent presidential election (i.e. raising doubts about the legitimacy, but not saying it was stolen) or have accepted the 2020 results.
Losing gubernatorial campaigns in swing or blue states have been a hallmark of 2020 election denial. Blue-state Republicans Dan Cox in Maryland and Geoff Diehl in Massachusetts are getting blown out by their opponents in the polls, even though the current and departing governors of their respective states are Republicans.
You might think that Lake has a chance since voters in the Grand Canyon State believe that the 2020 election was not free and fair. That does not appear to be the case. An August Fox poll found that only 28% of voters were not at all confident that votes in the 2020 election were cast legitimately and counted fairly.
Additionally, the Marist poll showed that a mere 6% of voters are not at all confident that the 2022 election in Arizona will not be run fairly and accurately. There are another 23% that are not very confident, but the majority are sure that it will be.
The State that Biden Wins: Taking Arizona Back After Trump Flips a State and Reversing Its Turn-Swift
Lake has a secret. Part of it may be that her past as a television anchor is paying off. She seems to be doing a good job reaching voters who are in the middle of the electorate.
Republicans hope to take Arizona back after Democrats made inroads in the swing state in 2020 when Biden won the state and Mark Kelly flipped a Senate seat for Democrats. However, the GOP isn’t putting up moderate Republicans to help that cause. Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and GOP Senate nominee Blake Masters were both endorsed by Trump and have expressed skepticism that Biden legitimately won the state. According to exit polls, Latino voters who represented 18% of the Arizona electorate in 2020, could end up deciding these close races. The crucial Hispanic voting bloc broke for Biden who won 61% of the Latino vote. Democrats will need to perform well if they are to hold onto the Senate seat and flip the governorship. The majority of registered voters in Arizona are in the county which includes Phoenix. Largely white collar and home to a sizable high-tech economy, the county has historically leaned Republican, but has been drifting towards Democrats in recent years.
The case is that Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson is a slight favorite to win a new term against the Democratic Lieutenant Governor, who is also running against him. Likewise, Nevada’s Adam Laxalt has raised questions about the 2020 election and played a leading role in post-election legal efforts to reverse Biden’s victory in the state. He’s in a tight race with Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto.
That could be quite a big deal in two years’ time, if another close presidential election – like 2020’s between Biden and Trump – is on the line and Arizona is once again in the mix.
The state that put Biden over the top in 2020 will be home to a number of important Senate and governor’s races this year. Republicans hope to hold on to an open Senate seat, while Fetterman is trying to move the seat to the Democrats. The governor appoints the official responsible for elections in Pennsylvania, so Democratic control of the governorship is at stake. The Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano supported the efforts of Trump to overturn the 2020 election. The Democratic base in Pennsylvania resides in urban Philadelphia and Pittsburgh while Republicans run up the score in the more rural central portion of the state. The Philadelphia suburbs have been moving towards Democrats while Republicans have improved in the western and northeastern parts of the state.
These states all have multiple critical races that will determine control of the Senate, the House and state governments. The issues of abortion rights, economic policy, education, and the climate crisis are all impacted by what happens in these states.
CNN uses race ratings from Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzalez, a nonpartisan analysis of campaigns for Senate, House and governor.
Democrats need at least 50 seats to keep control of the Senate with Vice President Kamala Harris giving them the tie-breaking vote for a majority, while Republicans need 51 to gain control. Of the 35 seats on the ballot this year, Republicans are currently favored to win 20 seats, while Democrats are favored to win 12 seats. 3 seats were rated as toss-ups.
Biden became the first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992 to win the state’s electoral college votes in the 2020 presidential race, and only the second Democratic nominee since Jimmy Carter in 2000 to do so.
The last two election cycles have proven how close elections in Georgia can be – and that’s not likely to change this year. Just like Senate control came down to Georgia in 2020, the same could happen in 2022.Last cycle, Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock won Senate seats to flip control of the chamber to Democrats. The contest for a full term against Herschel Walker will now be waged by the man who has maintained GOP support despite several scandals. Kemp refused to campaign for Donald Trump in 2020 after being challenged by a Republican in the primary. He won his first term in office in 2018, beating Democrat Stacey Abrams by just 55,000 votes. The two will face each other again in November, and this time Kemp is a Republican who stood up to Trump. If Abrams wins, she would be the first female Black governor in U.S. history.
The state of Michigan will have a lot of attention on the gubernatorial race which is being viewed by Republicans as a sign that they want to return to power in the state. The right to abortion will also be on the ballot. Democrats hope the issue will help boost turnout among their base voters. Voting and elections will also be key issues, as Michigan voters will decide on a ballot measure to expand access to the ballot, and elect a new secretary of state. Incumbent Democrat Jocelyn Benson faces Republican Kristina Karamo, who has backed Trump’s lies about the 2020 election. Democrats will have to do well in the Detroit area and other areas of Michigan in order to keep the blue color of the state. Republicans will likely do well in the western and northern parts of the state and will try to drum up more support in the historically conservative area around Grand Rapids, which has become more Democratic in recent years.
Nevada voted for every presidential winner from 1980 to 2012. When Hillary Clinton won the Silver State in 2016 it ended that streak but it began again in 2020 by voting for Biden. Despite his improved performance nationally, Clinton lost the state by a small margin to Biden. The margin of victory for Democrats has narrowed every time they’ve won the presidential election in the state.
Wisconsin is one of the most evenly distributed states in the country, with both Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Republican Ron Johnson facing competitive reelection campaigns. The Democratic lieutenant governor, at one time supporter of removing police funding, is on the losing side in the race with Johnson. Evers faces Republican businessman Tim Michels, who won Trump’s support in the primary by aggressively amplifying the former president’s 2020 election lies. Milwaukee is a historically blue-collar town which supports Democrats the most. In the more affluent northern and western suburbs of Milwaukee and in less populated counties in central Wisconsin the GOP base is found.