Predictions of the Republican Party: Where Do We Stand? The Case Of Joe Biden, The Media, Crime, and Inflation
Less than a month from Election Day, the race for a seat in the Senate is in the eye of the beholder with ads about abortion, crime and inflation dominating the air in key states.
The Republicans need a net gain of just one seat to flip the evenly divided chamber and they decided to focus their attention on President Joe Biden. Then the US Supreme Court’s late June decision overturning Roe v. Wade gave Democrats the opportunity to paint a contrast as Republicans struggled to explain their support for an abortion ruling that the majority of the country opposes. Former President Donald Trump’s omnipresence in the headlines gave Democrats another foil.
But the optimism some Democrats felt toward the end of the summer, on the heels of Biden’s legislative wins and the galvanizing high court decision, has been tempered slightly by the much anticipated tightening of some key races as political advertising ramps up on TV and voters tune in after Labor Day.
Republicans have a good midterm history, and have hammered Biden and Democrats for their support of policies they argue makes inflation worse. Biden has an approval rating of 41% with 50% of people disapproving in the CNN Poll of Polls. And with some prices inching back up after a brief hiatus, the economy and inflation – which Americans across the country identify as their top concern in multiple polls – are likely to play a crucial role in deciding voters’ preferences.
The GOP has been resorting to a familiar criticism, depicting Democrats as weak on public safety, in a steady increase in crime ads. This cycle, law enforcement officers have testified on camera to their pro-police credentials in TV ads. Women in Democratic ads talk about the dangers of a national abortion ban if the Senate is taken by the Republicans, while Republicans try to portray Democrats as extremists on the issue.
A lot has been made of GOP candidate quality this cycle. The difference between the nominee of the Republican Party and the one they’d hoped for has altered the rankings in a number of states.
These rankings are based on CNN’s reporting, fundraising and advertising data, and polling, as well as historical data about how states and candidates have performed. It will be updated one more time before Election Day.
The Wolfenstein Project: Investigating Senator Adam Warnock and the Case for a National Roe V. Wade Judgment to Protect Your Family
Fetterman has been attacked on crime, specifically his time on the state Board of Pardons, which features an ad from the Senate Leadership Fund that says protect your family. Don’t vote Fetterman.” But the lieutenant governor is also using sheriffs on camera to defend his record. Suburban voters are crucial to the future of democrats, and this Senate Majority PAC ad features a female doctor as narrator, and plays Oz’s comments from the primary about abortion being murder. Oz’s campaign has said that he supports exceptions for “the life of the mother, rape and incest” and that “he’d want to make sure that the federal government is not involved in interfering with the state’s decisions on the topic.”
The Republicans tried to link the first-term senator to Washington spending and inflation, which may be relevant in a place where gas is back up to over $5 a gallon. Democrats are making a point of pointing out the threat that a GOP-controlled Senate could pass a national abortion ban. Former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt – the rare GOP nominee to have united McConnell and Trump early on – called the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling a “joke” before the Supreme Court overturned the decision in June. Laxalt has tried to get around the attacks by saying he does not support a national ban on abortion and that the right to an abortion is settled law in Nevada.
The closer we get to Election Day, the more we need to talk about the Georgia Senate race going over the wire. If neither candidate receives a majority of the vote in November, the contest will go to a December runoff. According to a recent survey, there was no clear leader in the race and neither was Republican challenger Herschel Walker.
Warnock’s edge from earlier this cycle has narrowed, which bumps this seat up one spot on the rankings. The good news for Warnock is that he’s still overperforming Biden’s approval numbers in a state that the President flipped in 2020 by less than 12,000 votes. And so far, he seems to be keeping the Senate race closer than the gubernatorial contest, for which several polls have shown GOP Gov. Brian Kemp ahead. Warnock’s trying to project a bipartisan image that he thinks will help him hold on in what had until recently been a reliably red state. He has never mentioned his party in an ad where he brags about his work with Alabama GOP Sen. Tommy Tuberville to eliminate regulations. But Republicans have continued to try to tie the senator to his party – specifically for voting for measures in Washington that they claim have exacerbated inflation.
Democrats are hoping that enough Georgians won’t see voting for Walker as an option – even if they do back Kemp. Democrats have amped up their attacks on domestic violence allegations against the former football star and unflattering headlines about his business record. The debate in October will show how Walker, whose history of making controversial and illogical comments makes him a risky bet, handles himself against the more polished incumbent.
A Marquette University Law School poll from early September showed no clear leader, with Johnson at 49% and Barnes at 48% among likely voters, which is a tightening from the 7-point edge Barnes enjoyed in the same poll’s August survey. Notably, independents were breaking slightly for Johnson after significantly favoring Barnes in the August survey. A Fox News survey taken in September put Barnes on equal footing with Johnson on the question of whether he was too extreme, as a result of the GOP’s advertising. Johnson supporters are very enthusiastic about their candidate.
Barnes was slow to respond, but has now gone on the air with an ad featuring a retired police sergeant. “Mandela doesn’t want to defund the police; he’s very supportive of law enforcement,” the retired sergeant says in the ad. Barnes is going after Johnson on abortion now, Democrats expect the race to be a one to two point race, similar to how many statewide races in Wisconsin have been.
Conservative groups are spending for Masters but still have work to do to hurt Kelly, since she is a well-funded incumbent with a strong personal brand. The gap between Kelly and Masters narrowed among those who said they were definitely going to vote in the September poll. A Fox survey from a little later in the month similarly showed Kelly with a 5-point edge among those certain to vote, just within the margin of error.
Masters has attempted to moderate his abortion position since winning his August primary, buoyed by a Trump endorsement, but Kelly has continued to attack him on the issue. And a recent court decision allowing the enforcement of a 1901 state ban on nearly all abortions has given Democrats extra fodder to paint Republicans as a threat to women’s reproductive rights.
The Close Race Between Burr and Beasley: The 2016 Open-Seat Democratic Primary in New Hampshire vs. the GOP Candidate
New Hampshire swaps places with North Carolina on the rankings. The open-seat race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Richard Burr hasn’t generated as much national buzz as other states given that Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat in the state since 2008.
The race for the state’s first black senator is a tight one, and is being fought by Democrat Corinna Beasley and Republican Ted Budd. Beasley lost reelection as state Supreme Court chief justice by only about 400 votes in 2020 when Trump narrowly carried the Tar Heel state. Democrats hope she will boost turnout for rural Black voters who will not go to the polls if Budd wins the election, and that more moderate Republicans and independents will see her as too extreme. One of Beasley’s recent spots features a series of mostly White, gray-haired retired judges in suits endorsing her as “someone different” while attacking Budd as being a typical politician out for himself.
Budd is leaning into current inflation woes, specifically going after Biden in some ads that feature half-empty shopping carts, without even mentioning Beasley. One recent spot from the Senate Leadership Fund almost made her look like the incumbent in the race, superimposing her photo over a picture of the US Capitol and showing her face next to Biden. SLF and Budd are targeting her because she supported the Democrats in the health care bill. “Liberal politician Cheri Beasley is coming for you – and your wallet,” the narrator from one SLF ad intones, before later adding, “Beasley’s gonna knock on your door with an army of new IRS agents.” (The new law increases funding for the IRS, including for audits. Democrats as well as the IRS Commissioner said the intention was to go after wealthy tax evaders, not the middle class.
The establishment wanted the other candidate, but the Republicans got their one. Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan looks to have an easier path than before the Republican primary, as she faces off against controversial Retired Army Brig. Don Bolduc was a general. He’s allied himself with Trump, he denies that he won the election and he’s boosted the vaccine conspiracy.
But polling still shows a tight race with no clear leader. Ryan had an edge with independents in a recent Siena College/Spectrum News poll, which also showed that Vance – Trump’s pick for the nomination – has more work to do to consolidate GOP support after an ugly May primary. Assuming he makes up that support and late undecided voters break his way, Vance will likely hold the advantage in the end given the Buckeye State’s solidifying red lean.
Democrats in the Senate need to win. The Florida Senate contest, with Republican Gov. Rick Scott challenging Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson, is one of the nation’s most expensive and closely watched – and if Nelson loses, it would severely diminish Democrats’ shot at a majority.
A strong candidate who has outraised the incumbent but not by enough to jeopardize his advantage is the Democratic Rep. Val Demings. Her background as a former police chief is prominently featured in her advertising, which rejects the thought of defunding the police. Still, Rubio has tried to tie her to the “radical left” in Washington to undercut her own law enforcement background.
Bennet is up against Joe O’Dea, a businessman who disagrees with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the Wade decision. His wife and daughter are in his ads as he tries to change his profile in order to win a seat in congress.
Bennet is attacking O’Dea for voting for a failed ballot measure to ban abortion after 22 weeks ofPregnancy and arguing that O’Dea would give McConnell the majority he needed to pass a national abortion ban.
The Momentum of the Midterm Elections: A Case Study of the House of Representatives Over the Last Two Years and the U.S. Senate
There is no question that the Republicans are in a better place today than they were a month ago. That doesn’t mean they are favored just yet to win the majority. But it does suggest that momentum may well be on their side.
For almost two decades, midterm elections have been a succession of partisan waves: for Democrats in 2006, Republicans in 2010 and 2014, and Democrats again in 2018. The outcome of the 2020 elections can be a cause for optimism for the Democrats, since the party has been punished in recent years.
The field has moved back in the Republicans’ direction because of increased television advertising supporting GOP candidates and a tighter race as voters get ready for the election.
The Senate Leadership Fund, a superPAC aligned with Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell, has spent $52 million on TV ads in just the past two weeks, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
A group aligned with the former President Trump has popped up and is starting to spend a lot. There are two states where Trump-endorsed Senate candidates are struggling and where they have poured in $2 million.
A month ago, Democrats had a 7-in-10 chance of keeping the majority in the US Senate in the midterm elections, according to a forecasting model built by the wizards over at FiveThirtyEight.
Polls will close on competitive House races in Iowa, Nevada and Washington state in this two-hour span – all states where Democrats believe it is likely they will pick up seats – but the biggest prize of these late-night hours comes from California, where at least nine House races up and down the state are worth watching.
It is expected to tighten and after a month of millions of dollars in ads by Republican outside groups, the lead held by Democrat John Fetterman has shrunk considerably.
The Case of Cortez Masto: A Voting Machine for the Most Vulnerable Senate in the State and the Implications for Latinos
The New York Times reported that the same woman said Walker urged her to have another abortion two years later. She said their relationship ended after she refused. Walker denies this allegation as well. The details of the stories have not been confirmed by NPR. Walker is staunchly anti-abortion rights, not believing in any exceptions, and his responses to the scandal have been muddled at best.
Democrats continue to say incumbent Catherine Masto is running a good campaign, but she’s starting to fall behind her opponent Adam Laxalt, who denies that he won the election. The bottom line is Cortez Masto is the most vulnerable incumbent senator in the country right now.
This is a state that has leaned Democratic in recent years, but their victories have been really close, and both sides expect another tight finish. Democrats say Laxalt has been vulnerable to attacks over his ties to Trump, and his lies that inspired the Jan. 6 insurrection, as well as on abortion rights.
The economy is a big reason why the Republicans are in this area. Some Democrats worry that the party is focused too heavily on abortion and not enough on the economy. The state has a high population of working-class whites, Latinos and Asian Americans still trying to recover from the economic effects of the pandemic.
Latinos are a key group to watch. They helped tip the balance toward Democrats in previous years and Republicans claim they have been able to appeal to the group over the economic effects of the vaccine, as well as their frustration with Democrats.
Democrats have traditionally done well in Nevada by turning out their base voters, and they say Cortez Masto has been up on the air with Spanish-language ads for months and is well-liked in the Latino community. But there are questions about the party’s ability to get out the vote locally. Democrats believe they have the resources and organization to do well, but it will be important to keep the Nevada turnout machine going in this election.
The Status of Republican Electoral Campaigns in the North Carolina and South Carolina: Blake Masters’s Campaign and Sen. Mark Kelly’s
- In Arizona, GOP nominee Blake Masters appears to be making up some ground on Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly. The incumbent remains the favorite in the race, but there’s no question there has been some tightening.
Masters ran an ad in the primary, that said that Donald Trump won the election. In a general-election debate against Kelly last week, he called President Biden the “legitimate president.” It’s just one of the changes he’s made.
That said, North Carolina, a Republican-controlled seat, has trended up the top 10, and both sides expect a close finish between Democrat Cheri Beasley and Trump-backed Rep. Ted Budd. Some Democrats have complained that there haven’t been enough resources poured into this race, which they see as winnable, to push Beasley over the finish line in this state that has leaned toward Republicans in recent presidential and Senate elections. So lately, there’s been a bit of an uptick in Democratic spending. We will see if it makes a difference.
Budd’s campaign, on the other hand, has confounded many Republicans. Budd doesn’t seem to be trying to court independent voters, even though a former Republican governor said his campaign was too risk averse. He hugged Trump, talked of immigration, called every county a border county, and accused Beasley of being deceptive in portraying herself as a moderate.
That’s going to be a tough sell in this state, where about 40% of people identify as independents – and even Republicans acknowledge abortion is effective as an issue. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has stopped spending money on ads for the state, and they are redirecting funds to other areas. Next: 6
MarcoRubio has been in the lead in this race for a while, despite Democratic challenger Val Demings raising a lot of money. There is an unknown effect Hurricane Ian will have, which is something to watch in the race.
Lee and Collier counties, which took direct hits from the hurricane, are heavily Republican areas, but lots of other places, like Orlando, where Demings was police chief, up to Jacksonville are also reeling and dealing with the after effects of devastating flooding. The campaigns and committees are still adjusting to the time of the election. Previous: 9
Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/10/11/1127573261/key-senate-races
Patty Murray: The Republican Senate Race is In A Dead Heat – Counting the Democrat-Peculiar Relation in Indiana and Kentucky
In the last few polls, the Washington state Senate race between incumbent Democrat Patty Murray and Republican TiffanySmiley is in a virtual tie. Murray has led in all of them and touted her tenure and items in recent Democratic-passed legislation, even as Smiley has tried to use those very things against her, saying they’ve led to inflation. Republicans are even running an ad showing Murray morphing into President Biden. Murray has focused on tangible items included in legislation she fought for, like lowering prices for prescription drugs and insulin.
-
In Pennsylvania, Democrat John Fetterman’s lead over Republican Mehmet Oz has narrowed, as concerns about the lieutenant governor’s health (he had a stroke in May) have persisted. President Joe Biden appeared with Fetterman during a visit to Pennsylvania on Thursday.
-
A CBS News/YouGov poll out in Nevada shows the Senate race is in a dead heat, with Republican nominee Adam Laxalt at 49% and Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto at 48%.
The Democrats are starting to point the finger of blame at Barnes, who has watched his lead over Johnson slip away over the last two months. “People are just hitting their heads against the wall. Tom Nelson was a Democrat who ran for the Senate nomination.
Most of the polling shows that the incumbent has a small lead over Herschel Walker, despite his past relationships with women.
We will have indicators of whether the Democrats will achieve a net gain of 23 seats in the House, or if the GOP will gain or lose seats in the Senate.
Most of Indiana and Kentucky have polls close at 6PM. Parts of both states are in the Central time zone, so it’ll take time to see whether Indiana Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly survives a challenge from Republican businessman Mike Braun.
The Democrat-Democrat Campaign: The Great National Bellwether in South Florida, Virginia, and South Florida (Wiscons with an Attorney General)
It might not be a great national bellwether. The race has largely become about one woman, and whether or not she is too progressive for the district, instead of a referendum on Trump or the incumbent congressman. A Barr loss would give Republicans cause for alarm and will be an indicator of the environment.
A building wave? Virginia might be the most important early sign of where the House is going. The Democrats’ must-win there is in the 10th District, where strategists in both parties say Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock is unlikely to hold onto her seat in the DC suburbs. Taylor is the Republican who is running in the Norfolk area 2nd District, which is more relevant to the national environment. If Republican congressman Dave Brat loses in Virginia, it will be a sign of a building Democratic wave.
There is a race for the 5th District in Virginia, where a former journalist is running against a Republican who is an Air Force veteran and distillery owner. A Democratic win here would be a sign of a tidal wave threatening to wipe out Republicans whose races weren’t even on the national radar.
If the Democrats win, it will mean they’re ready for a big night. Karen Handel, who won a special election against Jon Ossoff, will face Lucy McBath, the mother of a boy who was shot to death over a loud music dispute. Republicans are angry that Rep. Rob Woodall didn’t take his race seriously. “If you don’t think it behooves you to put paid media on air, we’re not going to come help you. A republican official said that they are not a welfare organization.
Miami is a house battleground. South Florida is home to two House battlegrounds. The 26th District has a Republican congressman, Carlos Curbelo, who is well-liked in the party’s left wing for his stance on issues such as immigration and climate change. In the 27th District, what should be an easy Democratic pick-up has become daunting, as former Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala – the non-Spanish-speaking Democratic candidate in a majority Hispanic district – faces former Spanish-language broadcast journalist Maria Elvira Salazar.
History-makers. In Georgia, the headliner is the governor’s race between Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams, an emerging Democratic star who has combined a progressive platform with an appeal to black voters – all with a chance to become the nation’s first black female governor. If neither candidate tops 50%, the race will head to a runoff.
We will need to wait an extra hour for the results of the governor’s race between Andrew Gillum and Ron DeSantis, a progressive favorite and a Trump supporter, because of the Panhandle being in Central time.
There is a Midwestern state-level resurgence. Richard Cordray, a former head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, is a Democrat and is in the running for governor of Ohio. He faces Republican state Attorney General Mike DeWine. It is the first of several tests that Democrats hope to reverse GOP gains in Michigan, Iowa and Wisconsin.
Tennessee is one of Democrats’ best pick-up opportunities on the map. Phil Bredesen repeatedly pledged to work with Trump in a bid to appeal to moderate Republicans away from Marsha Blackburn.
Missouri, where McCaskill is trying to keep her job, is one of the GOP’s three best pick-up opportunities.
The most crucial hour for House control. This could be when the next House starts to take shape. The two major battlegrounds are Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
The open 2nd District and the 11th District are both places where the Democrats need to win at least two races.
It is the next two that will show the Democrats how much they are going to have to fight for, as Leonard Lance and Tom MacArthur are both Republicans who voted for the tax bill. If he loses, it would show how important health care is to Democrats.
Democrats could also pick off House seats in Illinois. Sean Casten is the best bet to face Peter Roskam in the Chicago suburbs. Also near Chicago, Rep. Randy Hultgren faces a stiff challenge from Lauren Underwood, who campaigned with former President Barack Obama over the weekend. The 12th and 13th districts have two more wave-maker types with Republican incumbents Mike Bost and Rodney Davis.
– Mississippi Senate: Does Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith hold off conservative Chris McDaniel and advance to a one-on-one runoff against Democratic former Rep. Mike Espy?
An 8:30 p.m. ET House race: In Arkansas, Democrats got their strongest possible challenger in state lawmaker Clarke Tucker to take on Republican Rep. French Hill. It’s another member of the wave-maker category of districts that would signal a huge Democratic night.
All eyes will be on Minnesota, where Democrats are now poised to turn the state blue two years after it came close to going for Trump in 2016. Democrats appear likely to hold the state’s two Senate seats and the governor’s mansion, but four closely watched House contests, including two where Democrats are on defense, will indicate how successful Democrats are in breaking down Trump’s red wall.
The year of the suburban revolt against Republicans could be decided by the poll closing at 9 p.m. Democrats have a chance of taking control of the House by winning suburban Dallas seats with Colin Allred, Houston, and Detroit that are currently held by Republicans.
It could be an exceptional night for Democrats, with wins in deep red districts, without huge population centers that Trump won two years ago. Two good examples of that come in upstate New York, where Democrats Antonio Delgado and Anthony Brindisi are challenging Republican incumbents, and exurban Kansas City where Paul Davis is looking to defeat Republican Steve Watkins.
What is the history of Texas? Texas hasn’t elected a state-wide Democrat since 1988. Ted Cruz has given a real race to Rep. Beto O’Ryle due to the Democratic enthusiasm and Brinks Truck cash. Polls have the upstart Democrat down and Republicans believe the state’s Republican tendencies will be evident on Election Day, but staggeringly high early voting numbers and national attention on the race have given O’Rourke a chance. Democrats would be horrified by a win here.
There is a possibility that the 9 pm poll closing could bring a big loss for Democrats. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp has become the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the Senate due to a few campaign missteps and, if the polls are any indication, is more likely to lose on Tuesday night. She had a mistake in her campaign ad when she wrongly identified the victims of sexual assault.
Democrats are hoping that a win in Arizona by two congresswomen will erase a loss in North Dakota.
Is Scott Walker done? Scott Walker, a Republican, who Democrats have always hoped to oust from office, is facing Tony Evers, the state schools chief, in the governor’s race.
The race has become a judgment on Walker, who is asking voters for a third term in the state, an ask that even Republicans admit makes his re-election difficult.
The dark horse gubernatorial race of the 9 p.m. ET hour is in South Dakota, where Republican Rep. Kristi Noem is in a surprisingly tough fight against Democrat Billie Sutton, an anti-abortion, pro-gun Democrat who is running to oversee a state that backed Trump by 30 percentage points in 2016.
While Democrats are fighting in competitive races throughout California’s Central Valley – where Democrats Josh Harder and T.J. Cox are looking to oust Republicans in districts Clinton won two years ago – the bulk of Democratic focus will be on Southern California, namely the Los Angeles and Orange County area.
The five Democrats looking to flip seats are, left to right, Mike Levin, Harley Rouda, Gil Cisneros andKatie Hill. The five seats in Southern California are potentially being used as a jumping off point for a good night for the democrats or the focus of attention over the next weeks.
Democrats expect to hold Montana where Tester is running on his connections to the state and authenticity but Nevada is expected to be a fight despite the fact that Heller is the most vulnerable Republican incumbent running for Senate.
The most unlikely race of the night could be in Alaska, where the current governor, independent Bill Walker, ended his re-election campaign in October to back former Sen. Mark Goldsmith, who is running against Republican Mike Dunleavy Republicans believe the race will be an easy pick up for them, but the lack of reliable polling and unexpected withdrawal of the current governor has a chance of delivering a late-night surprise.
Several races have been arranged by poll close time so that you can get a sense of what the political wind is blowing.
The Top Ten Senate and Governor Races in Arkansas: Including New York City, South Dakota, and North Carolina in the Early ’20s
Expect a close race for Senate and governor of Arkansas that will be decided in the last hours of the election. Sanders, the former Trump White House press secretary, is set to follow in her father’s (Mike Huckabee) footsteps as governor of the state. She had surgery last month to remove her cancer. She said after her surgery that she was “cancer-free.”
As of now, we’re in the thick of it, with 15 more states and continued results from the previous 27. There are many close Senate races in Kansas, Louisiana, New York, North and South Dakota, as well as in gubernatorial races in Colorado, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wyoming.
In the north of New York City and on Long Island, watch the races. Moderate areas in New York have been some of the strongest bellwethers of control of the House for the last 15 years or so, and they are among the seven House races to watch.
Alex Padilla, who was appointed to replace Kamala Harris in 2021, is likely to be elected for the first time.