What Have We Learned about Israel in the First Three Years of Independence: Are You For or Are You Against the Return of Benjamin Netanyahu?
Editor’s Note: Aaron David Miller is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of “The End of Greatness: Why America Can’t Have (and Doesn’t Want) Another Great President.” The Middle East was a point of contention in both administrations. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. Read more opinion on CNN.
If he wasn’t hired to be a technical adviser to Israel’s Central Elections Committee, Bill Murray surely would have been. Based on pre-election polling it seemed that Israel was headed for yet another Groundhog Day-style hung election for the fifth time in just short of four years.
Like its four predecessors, this election had one central fault line, if not organizing principle. Are you for or against the return of Netanyahu? Netanyahu has been the longest governing prime minister in Israel history at 73 years old.
For Netanyahu this election was truly existential. Had he failed to secure a governing majority – one that is likely to pass legislation to postpone or even cancel his trial – he may well have had to face the consequences of a guilty verdict or a plea bargain that would have driven him away from politics.
The left and center-left in Israel once dominated by the iconic Labor Party, the driving political force for the first three decades of independence, has been reduced to a shadow of its former self with just a handful of seats in the Knesset.
The Netanyahu bloc had an advantage because of the fracturing of the left and the Arabs vote, which gave them more votes.
Religious Zionism doubled its numbers from the 2021 election and Gvir, the clear star of the bloc, attracted new voters – and according to exit polls, raised national turnout by about 6%.
As that previously unthinkable reality takes hold, a fundamental question will roil synagogues in America and across the globe: “Do I support this Israel or not support it?” It will haunt pro-Israel students on college campuses. The Abraham Accords were put into place to challenge the Arab allies of Israel, which wanted to trade with Israel and never signed up for protecting a government that was anti-Israeli. It will stress those U.S. diplomats who have reflexively defended Israel as a Jewish democracy that shares America’s values, and it will send friends of Israel in Congress fleeing from any reporter asking if America should continue sending billions of dollars in aid to such a religious-extremist-inspired government.
Israel has been drifting in a straight line for many years. In Israel, 60 percent of the electorate is right-wing and only 12 percent are left-wing, according to the Israeli Democracy Institute.
The new prime minister is now beholden to these extremists and the two ultra-Orthodox parties who will have a long list of demands. He is now a minority within his own government due to the fact that the right wing and ultras had as many or more seats than him.
One might be forgiven if they thought this kind of government wouldn’t last. There is more that bonds this coalition together than divides it. The two Orthodox parties have been out of power and are eager to secure support for their religious schools and institutions.
What will the government do? It’s safe to say as Israel’s 75th anniversary approaches next year, it won’t bring the country any closer to tackling the domestic and foreign policy challenges it faces and will almost certainly make them worse. At home, Israel will be increasingly polarized, with an independent judiciary and rule of law under serious threat.
Indeed, Netanyahu, much like Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, would be much more comfortable with the return of Donald Trump or his Republican avatar. Biden surely didn’t want Netanyahu’s return to a right wing coalition partners likely to roil the already tense situation with Palestinians – his dance card was full of matters foreign and domestic.
But there will be more settlements and support for settlers; more effort to consolidate control over Jerusalem; relations with Israel’s Arab citizens will likely deteriorate with fewer resources for their community and if there’s a serious confrontation with Palestinians in the West Bank or in Jerusalem the odds of it morphing into a conflict between Israeli Jews and Arabs will likely grow.
Even if Netanyahu had not been tethered to Gvir, his relationship with Biden would have been difficult and their views on settlements, Palestinians in the West Bank and building in Jerusalem would have clashed.
Itamar Ben-Gvir — A Jewish nationalist who could shake the U.S.-Israel relationship after he was re-elected
Imagine waking up after Donald Trump was re- elected and finding out that he had chose Rudy Giuliani to be attorney general, Michael Flynn for Defense Secretary, James Dobson for Education Secretary, and a former leader of the Proud Boys for Commerce Secretary.
Two major U.S. Jewish groups voiced concern. There are reports that top American officials are raising the issue as well. And according to Israeli news reports, the foreign minister of the United Arab Emirates also warned that including certain far-right politicians in the Israeli government could hurt their countries’ relations, even as Netanyahu hopes to forge more diplomatic deals with Arab countries.
Jewish nationalist Itamar Ben-Gvir, who met with Netanyahu on Monday, is expected to become a senior Cabinet minister. He could face a boycott by the Biden administration, according to a former Obama administration official.
“I think the U.S. is likely to boycott him,” said David Makovsky of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who worked on Israeli-Palestinian peace talks under former President Barack Obama. “I have reason to think that they are strongly considering this.”
Convicted by an Israeli court in 2007 for inciting anti-Arab racism, Ben-Gvir stoked tension with Palestinians this year when he visited the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, or Temple Mount, a contested religious site where there is often violence between Israeli police and Muslim worshippers. “We’re the master of the house here,” Ben-Gvir said.
“Having someone who’s going to, I fear, play with matches, given this flammable piece of real estate, I think is a real danger,” Makovsky said. If Netanyahu feels that he will be in a position to make changes to the position of Itamar Ben-Gvir, he will be swimming upstream.
Netanyahu assured people that his government’s policy wouldn’t be “pointless adventures”. Ben-Gvir said in an op-ed Monday, “I have matured, moderated.”
Danny Danon, a Netanyahu ally hoping to be the next speaker of parliament, argues Israel will maintain good ties with the Biden administration because Netanyahu, not Ben-Gvir, will be in charge of that relationship.
“I think all the issue of Ben-Gvir, it’s overblown,” Danon told NPR. “We will be running the government, and we will be dealing with the important issues … and we proved in the past that we can be responsible about many of the issues, concerning foreign and domestic issues.”
Sara Greenberg warned about allowing Extremism in the upcoming Cabinet, she was Netanyahu’s adviser for foreign affairs and worldwide Jewish communities.