The New York Times: What do we need to know about holiday shopping trends in 2019? A trade group forecast of the National Retail Federation (NRF)

The New York Times has reporters working on an article on changes in holiday shopping trends this fall and they would love to hear from you. The challenges of this season are different than in the past. People’s budgets and priorities may have changed, and we want to hear from you about those shifts.

Families might not skimp on holiday gifts for their loved ones, so they will most likely slim their list of recipients, turn to credit cards, and use savings to pay for them, according to an industry forecast Thursday.

Retail sales for the combined November-December shopping months will grow between 6% and 8% this year compared with the 2021 holiday season, to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion, according to projections released Thursday from the National Retail Federation, the industry’s largest trade group.

Matthew Shay, President and CEO of the NRF, said in a statement that the pressure of inflation and higher prices is being felt by consumers, but that they are still spending.

The group says the holiday online will rise to between $268 billion and $267 billion, up from $238 billion in 2011.

Shay added that retailers have done a good job kicking off the holiday season earlier than usual this year, in some cases rolling out some Black Friday-like promotions in early October. This has helped jump start holiday sales ahead of schedule and could support more sales increases in coming weeks..

That compares unfavorably with last year’s robust 15.1% increase, but this year’s expected slower growth is in line with where holiday retail sales were trending pre-pandemic.