Reply to Comment on Inflation Reduction Act Action” by K.J. Bennet and J. C. O’Dea

He said that they got none of that with Senator Lee. I am not going to allow him to sit on his hands and complain about the country on cable news as soon as it is time to vote no.

Mr. McMullin said that he would not have voted for the Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act “as written” but that he supported parts of it, including allowing Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices. He said he did not know if he would back federal legislation on abortion but that he opposed bans without exceptions for rape and incest and supported increasing access to contraception.

Biden blames some outside factors for the increase in living costs, one of which was the invasion of Ukraine by Russia and the subsequent spike in gasoline prices. Biden is blamed by Republicans for flushing the system with cash and sending the economy into an overheating cycle.

Mr. Bennet said he believed the Inflation Reduction Act would live up to its name once its provisions kick in fully next year. He said that the funding will allow the country to increase its energy independence and bolster its economy at the same time.

Mr. O’Dea called for loosening the permitting process for new energy projects, naming natural gas alongside renewable energy but, notably, not mentioning oil or coal. He said it would cause the price to come down and that it would cause inflation to go away.

What do he think about elections and what does he want to do next? A critical examination of midterm candidates in the U.S.

Mr. O’Dea also said, as he has before, that he did not want Mr. Trump to run for president again and would “actively campaign against” him in a Republican primary; he named Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley and Tim Scott as candidates he could support instead. He did not say what he would do in the general election if Mr. Trump won the primary.

Hundreds of Republican midterm candidates have questioned or spread misinformation about the 2020 election. Together, they represent a growing consensus in the Republican Party and a potential threat to American democracy.

In Oregon, an independent candidacy is snaring Democratic votes and Phil Knight, the co- founder of Nike, is pouring money into the GOP to defeat the candidate who is pro-life.

A new breed of veterans is running for the House on the far right, challenging assumptions that adding veterans to Congress would foster bipartisanship and cooperation.

Here’s the thing about elections: When they break, they usually break in one direction. All the indicators that make up my dashboard are red, toward the Republicans.

What Do We Really Need to Know About the Presidency of Donald J. Trump, and What Can They Tell Us About The State of the Art?

First there is inflation. The Federal Reserve was hamstrung in dealing with it because it hasn’t gone away as the Biden administration had hoped. Americans are being squeezed between exorbitant prices for consumer goods — inflation is still at 40-year highs — and interest rates that the Fed has ratcheted up as it seeks to rein in those prices. Anyone trying to buy a home now faces 30-year mortgage rates that have soared past 6 percent.

The latest New York Times/Siena poll, my colleague Nate Cohn wrote this week, suggests that “the conditions that helped Democrats gain over the summer no longer seem to be in place,” with voters’ sour view of the economy driving the downturn in the party’s prospects.

Editor’s Note: Julian Zelizer, a CNN political analyst, is a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University. He is the author and editor of 24 books, including, “The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: A First Historical Assessment.” You can follow him on social media. He has his own views on this commentary. View more opinion on CNN.

In the past few weeks, Republican enthusiasm has outpaced Democrats’, as more voters have begun tuning into the election. Republicans have increased their enthusiasm levels in that time so Democrats have not gained in their enthusiasm levels.

The Democrats have taken a hit due to concern about inflation and attention being diverted from the impact of the Dobbs decision. Americans are concerned about the future of our democracy, though they think the main problem is corruption, rather than threats from the GOP to overturn future results.

The implications of a strong showing by the GOP would be enormous. If the Republicans win the Senate and House, they could potentially shift control of the House, giving them power that could give Trump more influence over congress and make it easier for him to push his agenda.

According to The Washington Post, a stunning 291 Republicans who are running for office in November are election deniers who don’t accept that Biden won in 2020. While many of these candidates will lose, a large number have good odds of being victorious – potentially helping to create a path for former President Donald Trump’s reelection in 2024.

The Tea Party Republicans who came to Washington after the 2010 midterms formed the new Freedom Caucus, which is a powerful part of the House GOP. A new majority could push anti-democratic policies to the very top of the Republican agenda.

A majority of Americans will vote denier in the election. Some are hoping that if they win, they’ll be able to run state elections in the future.

The Transforming Party of Georgia: The Great Victories of the 1978 Georgia Election and the Rise of the 2020 Midterm Democratic Reicondilection

The party’s transformation has been captured in a recent New York Times Magazine profile of a Georgia lawmaker. In the piece, Robert Draper describes how Greene has been able to become a power broker in the GOP because she was too right-leaning.

The success of Republicans in the 2020 election will show that Trumpism isn’t a new phenomenon. Liz Cheney of Wyoming is no longer in congress.

Midterm elections frequently play a big role in defining what parties are about. Even though the pundits are spinning who will win or lose, what the voting says about the character of a party is equally important.

The 1978 election was a turning point in the direction of conservatives. Moderate Republicans like Tennessee Sen. Howard Baker changed their approach to issues as they read the way the political winds were blowing. Baker announced his opposition to the SALT II Treaty with the Soviet Union as hardliners wrestled control within the GOP.

Republicans gained six gubernatorial seats, an area where the Republican National Committee had heavily invested. Republicans celebrated securing control of 12 state legislative chambers, up from four. “This is the most profound change for us,” noted then-RNC Chair Bill Brock, in Time magazine.

The numbers were not as important as the inner substance. There were several up-and-coming Republicans, like Gingrich of Georgia, who championed a new generation of brash and aggressive conservatives and rejected the older generation of party leaders who believed in the need to stick to the center.

Republicans like Sen. Thad Cochran of Mississippi won seats that had been controlled by conservative Democrats for decades. Cochran took the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. James Eastland, one of the most famous opponents of civil rights. Dick Clark was defeated in Iowa by a senator who claimed that he was the senator from Africa. Republican themes included tax reduction and a stronger stance against communism.

There were new conservative political organizations that flexed their muscle. In 1975, when the National Conservative Political Action Committee was created, it helped to oust several prominent Democrats. With the PAC’s support, Republican Gordon Humphrey of New Hampshire, a conservative abortion opponent, defeated Democratic incumbent Sen. Thomas McIntyre.

Last week, Newsweek reported, America swung rightward after a half century of Democratic rule. The real message of the election returns was the ratification of a new and no longer partisan agenda for the nation – a consensus on inflation as the priority target and tax-and-spend government as the primary villain.”

“Trumpism” has already happened, but some still wonder if there will be any long-term change in the Republican party. While that kind of question is impossible to answer, the hold of election denialism on so many Republican candidates and the rightward shift on policies like immigration is a very strong indication of where things stand – even if some of the high-profile Trump-selected candidates, such a Herschel Walker in Georgia or J.D. Vance in Ohio, lose.

The anti-democratic theme that the former president promoted was part of his effort to overturn a presidential election. His strategy continues even though he was unsuccessful in doing so.

The midterms are turning into a moment for the Republicans to double down on this direction, reminding voters why conservatives such as Cheney don’t really have much room at the table. There will be no turning around in the next election cycles if they win in November.

Over the past nearly two years, we have made enormous progress. My administration and Democrats in Congress are working to make an economy that thrives from the bottom up and middle out.

The unemployment rate has been low for a long time. We’ve created 10 million jobs, including almost 700,000 manufacturing jobs. On my watch, “Made in America” isn’t just a slogan, it’s a reality.

Do we need to teach our kids how to survive the pandemic? It took a village to make it easier for families to get by

This election is turning out to be an object lesson in the pernicious political impact of inflation – a force that many adult Americans have never experienced since it last cast its dark shadow over everyday life back in the 1980s.

We need to make it easier, not tougher, for hard-working Americans to get by. That’s why I took action to ease the burden of student debt for families recovering from the pandemic. Republicans criticized the move, but I will never apologize for helping working- and middle-class Americans as they recover from the pandemic. Especially not to the same Republicans officials who voted for a $2 trillion tax giveaway that mainly benefitted wealthy Americans and the biggest corporations.

And partly because of the actions we’ve taken – including a historic release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve – gas prices are decreasing. They’re down $1.20 since their peak this summer and just this week they fell another 10 cents. Real savings for families are being added to by that.

Many Republicans in Congress are calling to roll back these provisions that lower prescription drug costs – some of which take effect in January. That means the $2,000 cap on prescription drugs for seniors would be gone. The cap on diabetes care for senior citizens would no longer be a problem. The average savings on health care premiums of $800 a year for millions of Americans would be gone. The Republicans would increase the costs.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/opinions/american-people-face-a-choice-joe-biden/index.html

The Case for Repatriation: Why We Are Here, What We Can Do to Protect, and Why We Can’t Get More Taxes

Democratic legislators are making sure corporations pay their fair share of taxes. 55 of the wealthiest corporations in America paid no federal income tax in 2020. No longer. A minimum tax was signed into law by me. I’m keeping my campaign promise, no one earning less than $400,000 a year will pay more in federal taxes.

Republicans said that they might refuse to raise the debt limit if they win control of congress, unless they got their way on social security cuts.

The fact is that this is not your father’s party, and many Republicans in Congress want to ban abortion. If we retain the House, I will move to codify it in January if we get more Senate Democrats.

America is putting democracy to the test. We are learning what every generation has to learn: nothing about democracy is guaranteed. You need to defend it. Protect it. Choose it.

I’m absolutely confident that, just as they did in 2020, the American people will again vote in record numbers and make it clear that democracy is a value that both defines us and unites us as Americans.

We didn’t relent despite some of the most difficult challenges in our history. And, I have never been more confident about our future. In 14 days, the American people will decide whether we keep moving forward or go backwards.

Joe Biden has warned of the perils of a divided congress with two years of misery to his White House if the Democrats lose the vote in the mid-term.

The President was in New York to promote the manufacturing of chips, not one of the Senate swing states. The fact that he showed up in a state he won by more than 20 points two years ago shows how his low approval ratings limit his capacity to help his party climb out of a hole.

The economy was in better shape than most Americans think, and if Republicans win control of Congress next month, they’ll put Medicare on the chopping block, said Biden, while arguing that the recovery was better than most people think.

His approach reflected the extraordinarily testing election environment facing Democrats, who are in danger of losing their control of the House of Representatives as their hopes of clinging onto the Senate appear to ebb.

Eleven days out from the election, Republicans are targeting deep blue territory that would enable them to build a wave that could translate into a significant House majority. Republicans only need a net gain of five seats to flip the chamber, and they could win enough seats in the Empire State alone to do that, CNN’s Harry Enten wrote Thursday.

In the case of the Arizona Senate race, Mark Kelly had a clear lead but now it appears he is in a dead heat. Democrats were also rattled this week by a shaky debate performance by Pennsylvania Senate nominee John Fetterman, who is still facing auditory and processing issues after a stroke. The commonwealth represents the party’s best chance to pick up a seat and could be critical to their hopes of holding control of the 50-50 Senate, where Vice President Kamala Harris casts the tie-breaking vote. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, in a conversation overheard with Biden and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul on Thursday, said he thought the Pennsylvania debate “didn’t hurt us too much,” but expressed concern about the high-profile race in Georgia, saying it’s the state “where we’re going downhill.”

The President is bracing for a lot of Republican investigations, as well as his handling of the US withdrawal fromAfghanistan and the business dealings of his son, who is under investigation by the Justice Department.

There is sufficient uncertainty in polling following recent elections that it is far too early to properly judge the state of the race. But Biden’s speech on Thursday reflected Democrats’ burden in this election and suggested that the historical pattern of first-term presidents getting a midterm election drubbing may be reasserting itself, after his party nursed hopes of bucking the trend this summer in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade.

His speech demonstrated the political impossibility of highlighting undeniably positive aspects of the economy – including hopeful GDP growth figures released Thursday and a historically low jobless rate – when inflation is raging at near 40-year highs.

Biden warned of a political fight with Republicans over entitlements if the debt ceiling is not raised, as well as a political fight with Republicans if political control is split between the parties.

“They’re going to shut down the government, refuse to pay America’s bills for the first time in American history to put America in default… unless we yield to their demands to cut Social Security and Medicare.”

“Nothing will create more chaos or do more damage to the American economy,” the President said, admitting that Democrats always charge Social Security is at risk in elections but also arguing that proposals by Republican Sens. Rick Scott of Florida and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin this time really do threaten the retirement program.

The issue is that if all of those measures are successful, they won’t be felt in this election. There’s a chance they could help Biden in 2024 if he decides to run for reelection, but for now, they are aspirational.

The survey shows that inflation is the top issue for voters who will be casting their ballot in the final days of the election.

The Problem of President Barack Obama, Janet Yellen, and the Competition in the New York City Gubernatorial Race: An Empirical Analysis

The latter has even made the gubernatorial race in New York – which hasn’t elected a Republican statewide in two decades – unexpectedly competitive. Biden was with Hochul on Thursday in Syracuse, which is also home to a competitive House race.

The President is in a tricky spot, trying to claim credit for the positive aspects of the economy while empathizing with the pain many Americans are feeling. The White House faced a similar problem when he was a vice president. The economy wasn’t coming back quickly after the recession because many Americans didn’t feel it. In the run-up to the 2010 mid-term elections, Barack Obama argued that if the Republicans took control of Congress, it would be like putting the keys of a car in the hands of people who drove it into a ditch. Republicans were able to take control of the House and made gains in the Senate.

When a voter’s income is not keeping up with their costs, especially for the staples of everyday life like meat, bread, eggs and gasoline, they are bound to look for scapegoats. Biden gets the blame as the president in power.

In an interview with CNN’s Phil Mattingly on Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen counseled patience since many of the measures the administration has taken to boost the economy will take time to come on line.

But she admitted, “Inflation is very high – it’s unacceptably high and Americans feel that every day,” in the interview broadcast on “Erin Burnett OutFront.”

“People are still struggling with inflation. When I was a kid, my dad would tell me at the end of the month, if you didn’t have enough money to cover your expenses, you were in real trouble.

Biden’s comment showed he understands the problem that appears to be dooming Democrats this election season. But there’s nothing in the short term he can do about it.

Amid growing concern from economists and finance officials that a recession is likely at some point in the next year, and with signs of a necessary slow down in key areas of the economy it was based on elements of the latest data that showed a path to a soft landing.

But Yellen agreed with the President’s assessment that the economy remains strong, standing out in comparison to how other economies around the world are fairing.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that the gross domestic product increased by 2.6% in the third quarter, the broadest measure of economic activity. The first and second quarter of the year saw declines of 1.6% and 0.6%, respectively.

Jill Yellen’s view of the Covid-19 crisis: Implications for the economic recovery and the recovery of the American economy

But Yellen’s view also underscored the complex balancing act President Joe Biden and his top economic officials have attempted over the course of this year, as they seek to highlight a rapid economic recovery and major legislative victories while also pledging to tackle soaring prices.

The administration has been frustrated that efforts to get the US economy out of crisis haven’t received the credit they believe is deserved.

There were a lot of difficulties that American families could have faced. The problems we do not have are because of what the Biden administration has done. Sometimes one doesn’t get credit for problems that don’t exist.

Yellen traveled to Cleveland as part of an administration push to highlight the major legislative wins – and the tens of billions of dollars in private sector investment those policies have driven toward manufacturing around the country.

It’s a critical piece of an economic strategy designed to address many of the vulnerabilities and failings laid bare as Covid-19 ravaged the world, with significant federal investments in infrastructure and shoring up – or creating from scratch – key pieces of critical supply chains.

Listing off a series of major private sector investments, including the $20 billion Intel plant opened a few hours drive outside of Columbus, Yellen said they were “real tangible investments happening now,” even as she acknowledged they would take time to full take effect.

“But you’re beginning to see repaired bridges come online – not in every community, but pretty soon. Many communities are going to see roads improved, bridges repaired that have been falling apart. We’re seeing money flow into research and development, which is really an important source of long term strength to the American economy. And America’s strength is going to increase and we’re going to become a more competitive economy,” she said.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/27/politics/janet-yellen-gdp-recession-cnntv/index.html

Counting the Debt Ceiling: Why Do Republicans Want to Stay in the White House? A Marist Poll Study of the House Minority Causal Debt Crisis

Yellen also addressed the battle lines that have been drawn this week over raising the debt ceiling, a now-perpetual Washington crisis of its own making that House Republicans have once again pledged to utilize for leverage should they take the majority.

“The President and I agree that America should not be held hostage by members of Congress who think it’s alright to compromise the credit rating of the United States and to threaten default on US Treasuries, which are the bedrock of global financial markets,” Yellen said.

She made clear that she didn’t intend to be one of the officials who left the administration as the administration moved toward a time period in which top officials usually leave. Asked about reports she had informed the White House she wanted to stay into next year, Yellen said it was “an accurate read.”

“I feel very excited by the program that we talked about,” Yellen said. “And I see in it great strengthening of economic growth and addressing climate change and strengthening American households. I would like to be a part of that.

Democrats are lagging behind on the congressional ballot test. Pollsters ask people who they’re going to vote for in a future election, Republican or Democrat.

The crosscurrents of this election are combining to make for uncertainty and volatility with just days to go. Most midterms are referenda on the sitting president and the party in power. That is largely the case with Biden’s approval rating slipping again, Democrats losing ground on which party voters want to control Congress and inflation being the top issue — with voters saying they trust Republicans more on the issue by 20 points.

But preserving democracy and abortion have also been key and hugely motivating factors, as former President Trump, whom the poll found is equally unpopular as Biden, has weighed in heavily in these elections. He’s endorsed a lot of candidates, which many of whom have followed his example and been unsuccessful in purple states.

The poll also found, though, that Republican voters are largely OK with voting for an election denier, as long as they agree on policy positions — and it found in this age of hyperpartisanship, a huge shift away from people thinking divided government is a good thing.

The survey of of 1,586 adults and 1,469 registered voters was conducted Oct. 24 through Oct. 27 by the Marist Poll and sponsored in partnership with NPR and PBS NewsHour. Results could be lower or higher than what is listed, if there is an error margin of more than 4 percentage points.

At the same time, key groups in the GOP are fired up to vote, including older voters, Trump voters, white evangelical Christians and rural voters. Those without college degrees are less enthusiastic about the election, but that’s driven by voters of color without degrees.

Before the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the abortion law of 1974, Democratic enthusiasm was way below that of Republicans. There was more Democratic activism, fundraising and interest in these elections. Democrats closed the enthusiasm gap and were on par with GOP voters over the summer and into September.

It tends to be bad news for Democrats when it’s tied in this survey. They need a large lead on the question in order to do well in the House, because of how districts are drawn.

The three issues the GOP has focused on most in these elections are inflation, crime and immigration, and they are all trusted by wide margins.

A majority of Republicans (53%) said they would “very likely” vote for someone who thought (incorrectly) that the election was stolen, as compared to one-in-five Democrats and a third of independents.

Three-quarters of Americans said they have confidence in their local and state governments to conduct a fair and accurate election, though. Republicans were less likely to say the same, but they still believe they have that confidence despite Donald Trump’s rhetoric.

Now by a 53%-to-38% margin, they say it’s better for the government to be controlled by the same party. Democrats, who are seeing their majorities threatened this year, are driving that with 73% saying so, but a slim majority of independents and about half of Republicans feel the same way.

Also, overall, 27% of Americans say they have already voted with another 28% saying they plan to vote before Election Day. A majority of people say they will vote in person on Election Day.

Biden’s price hike, Scott’s ultra-MAGA agenda, and the election of a new inflaton-reduction law

Along the way, there were costly communications mistakes. In the spring of 2015, administration economists were saying that inflation would be gradual. The assessment was wildly optimistic, and Republicans have not let voters forget it.

When the war in Ukraine drove a fresh jump in prices, Democrats deployed the phrase “Putin’s price hike” to try to mitigate the damage. Some liberal economists questioned the logic of whacking corporate America for “price-hiking,” but there were scattershot attempts to do that.

In remarks on inflation in May, Biden tried out a new phrase: “the ultra-MAGA agenda,” referring to a plan by Senator Rick Scott of Florida that would require Congress to reauthorize spending for Social Security and Medicare. Scott is one of the Republicans who distanced themselves from the idea.

The Inflation Reduction Act, passed by Democrats in August, had accomplishments they could credibly argue would address rising costs for families. The legislation included price caps for drugs and provisions for Medicare to negotiate their prices. According to the polls, those policies were very popular.

That sentiment may not have been genuine, as surveys show that majority of voters don’t think the new law will reduce inflation.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/03/us/politics/biden-raisin-bran-inflation.html

Biden hasn’t forgotten an inch of the ground: Dem Demography of the Midterm Economy and the Future of the U.S.

Biden has spoken about the economy in speeches far more often than any other subject; he has made 22 appearances since August for midterm-related events, according my count. Even so, progressives complain that Democratic candidates neither put significant resources or energy into promoting those achievements, nor do they adequately punish Republicans for their own positions.