Ukraine’s liberation of Krasny Liman and Kiev’s capture of the Kurdistan border city Lysychansk

Concerns have risen sharply that Moscow could resort to nuclear weapons use after Putin’s proclamation on Friday that Russia would seize nearly a fifth of Ukraine, declaring that the millions of people living there would be Russian citizens “forever.”

Mr. Putin is expected to speak in great detail in his speech. He is likely to downplay his military’s struggles in Ukraine and rising domestic dissent. He will probably ignore denunciations of the discredited referendums held in occupied Ukranian when they were forced to vote at gunpoint.

Russian stragglers in the key city of Lyman were taken back from Russia by Ukrainian forces on Sunday and despite Moscow’s baseless claims, they fled with empty eyes.

The ministry said in Telegram that allied troops were withdrawn from the settlement of Krasny Liman to better positions in the surrounding area.

Russian state media Russia-24 reported that the reason for Russia’s withdrawal was because “the enemy used both Western-made artillery and intelligence from North Atlantic alliance countries.”

The capture of the rail hub and gateway to the eastern region of the country by Ukrainian forces left no doubt as to their determination to push onward toward the city of Lysychansk which Russia seized three months ago. Any loss of territory in the Donbas undermines Mr. Putin’s objectives for the war he launched in February, which has focused on seizing and incorporating the region.

Serhii Cherevatye, the military spokesman for the eastern grouping of Ukrainian forces, said on Saturday that Ukrainian forces had entered the village of Stavyk.

It’s important that the liberation of Lyman takes place, since it’s another step towards the liberation of the Ukrainian Donbas. This is an opportunity to go further to Kreminna and Severodonetsk. Therefore, in turn, it is psychologically very important,” he said.

The head of Luhansk regional military administration Serhiy Hayday also revealed Saturday further details of the Lyman offensive, suggesting Russian forces had offered to retreat, but to no avail from the Ukrainian side.

The ocupiers asked for the chance to retreat and were refused. They have two options. Yes, they have three options. Hayday said to try to break through or everyone will die.

“There are several thousand of them. Yes, about 5,000. There isn’t an exact number yet. Five thousand is still a colossal grouping. A large group is gathered in the encirclement for the first time. He added that the group’s retreat routes are all completely blocked.

Yurii Mysiagin, Ukrainian member of Parliament and deputy head of the parliament’s committee on national security, referenced the move into Stavky on Saturday by publishing a video on Telegram showing a Ukrainian tank moving up the road with a clear sign indicating the region of Stavky. CNN could not independently verify the original source or the date.

A video posted on social media, and shared by President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, shows two Ukrainian soldiers standing on a military vehicle attaching the flag with tape to a large sign with the word “Lyman.”

The fate of the Zaporizhya director-general Murashov: a violation of international law and the role of the Kremlin

Ramzan Kadyrov, leader of the Chechen republic, said it was time for the Kremlin to make use of every weapon they have at their disposal.

“In my personal opinion we need to take more drastic measures, including declaring martial law in the border territories and using low-yield nuclear weapons,” Kadyrov said on his Telegram channel. There is no need for the community to be aware of every decision.

In his Telegram channel earlier this week, former president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, discussed the use of nuclear weapons if the state was threatened by conventional forces.

The United States and many other countries dismissed the news as illegal but the fear is the Kremlin might argue that attacks on those territories now constitute attacks on Russia.

In his speech in the Kremlin, the Russian leader made only passing reference to nuclear weapons, noting the United States was the only country to have used them on the battlefield.

The director-general of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was seized by a Russian patrol on Saturday.

Director-General Ihor Murashov was in his vehicle on his way from the plant when he was “stopped … taken out of the car, and with his eyes blindfolded he was driven in an unknown direction. For the time being there is no information on his fate,” Energoatom’s Petro Kotin said in a statement.

The owner of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant has responsibility for the nuclear and radiation safety, and his detention is a blow to that.

The director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was urged to take all possible immediate actions to free him by Kotin.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that it was another example of state terrorism from the side of Russia, and a violation of international law.

The UN, the IAEA and the G7 should take decisive measures to stop the spread of nuclear weapons, the ministry said in a statement.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/01/europe/ukraine-russia-lyman-donetsk-intl/index.html

U.S. President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion of Lyman, Ukraine, in the wake of the November 11 referendum: NPR’s State of Ukraine

The bodies of 22 people, including 10 children, were found on a convoy of cars that were bombarded by the Russians in eastern Ukraine, the Regional Prosecutor’s Office said.

The SBU and police discovered a convoy of cars that were killed near the village of Kurylivka, the prosecutors office said.

Two days after President Vladimir V. Putin held a grandiose ceremony to commemorate the incorporation of four Ukrainian territories into Russia, the debacle in the city — Lyman, a strategic railway hub in the eastern region of Donbas — ratcheted up pressure on a Russian leadership already facing withering criticism at home for its handling of the war and its conscription of up to 300,000 men into military service.

In an article published on Sunday, the Komsomolskaya Pravda reported that Russian forces in Lyman had trouble in the last days of their occupation because of desertion, poor planning and delayed arrival of reserves.

Russia is pouring the new conscripts across the whole of the front line in an attempt to halt recent Ukrainian advances while rebuilding ground forces decimated during eight months of war. Military analysts predicted the deployment of Russians to the front line areas with high numbers of deaths in the fall after chaos in September. Russian forces are attacking in the east, but on defense in the south.

Sept. 27: Russia claimed that staged referendums in four occupied regions of Ukraine showed the people chose to join the Russian Federation. United Nations leaders and many countries called the process a sham and a violation of international law.

Oct. 2: Leaders of nine European countries made a joint statement in support of Ukraine joining NATO. And Pope Francis made a strong plea for Putin to end the war.

You can read the previous recaps here. You can find more of NPR’s coverage here. Also, listen and subscribe to NPR’s State of Ukraine podcast for updates throughout the day.

American officials think there’s no chance that Russian forces would collapse and allow Ukraine to take a huge swath of territory. If individual Russian units broke under Ukrainian pressure, they could allow the army to continue retaking towns in the Donbas and possibly seize Kherson, a major prize in the war.

The Kremlin reflected the chaos on the ground, as it acknowledged that it was not yet aware of what new borders Russia would claim in southern Ukraine. “In terms of the borders, we’re going to continue to consult with the population of these regions,” Mr. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, told reporters on Monday.

The military conscription Mr. Putin ordered on Sept. 21 to bolster his battered forces has set off nationwide turmoil and protest, bringing the war home to many Russians who had felt untouched by it. Aging and disability were both considered in determining the eligibility of many men drafted.

CNN’s David v. Goliath Battles: From Ukraine to the Edge of Chaos, to Freedom and the Future of the World

Editor’s Note: Editor’s note: Frida Ghitis, (@fridaghitis) a former CNN producer and correspondent, is a world affairs columnist. She is a weekly contributor to CNN and a columnist for both The Washington Post and World Politics Review. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. You can give more opinion on CNN.

On Sunday, almost by accident, two groups of demonstrators came together in London. There were Ukrainian and Iranian flags being waved. They cheered each other and said, “All together we will win.”

Nobody knows what happens next. There is no one who knows how this ends. As the people in Ukraine and Iran fight for their freedom, for self-determination, the world stands at an inflection point. History is waiting to be written.

These David v. Goliath battles show bravery that is almost unimaginable to the rest of us – and is inspiring equally courageous support in places like Afghanistan.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/04/opinions/iran-ukraine-autocracies-struggle-democracy-ghitis/index.html

Violence in Iran: The spark of the Crimes of Mahsa Amini and the death of a 22-year-old female prisoner

In Iran, the spark was the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini last month. She died in the custody of morality police after being held for breaking the rules that mandated women to dress modestly.

In defiance, Iranian woman have stripped off their headscarves and thrown it into the flames in scenes of exhilarated defiance.

Their peaceful uprising is not really about the hijab; it’s about cutting the shackles of oppression, which is why men have joined them in large numbers, even as the regime kills more and more protesters.

After all, it was less than a decade ago that Russian President Vladimir Putin entered the civil war in Syria to save Bashar al-Assad.

Putin had built up his forces so that he could take over a country that was democratic. There was a prediction by US intelligence that Russia would capture the capital in a matter of days. That’s why the US reportedly offered to evacuate Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky to safety just after Russian forces moved in. Zelensky refused.

The key element of Russian terrorism will cease to work when Ukraine has a large number of modern and effective air defense systems.

The thought of a bloody new twist in the war that has gone through multiple strategic phases was weighing heavily on the minds of military and political leaders in Washington Monday. Revulsion was set off by the fact that Putin had once again been attacking civilians that resembled the 20th century horrors of Europe.

The regimes of Tehran and Moscow have been isolated and supported by a lot of autocrats.

Is it any wonder that Putin’s first trip outside the former Soviet Union since the start of his Ukraine war was to Iran? Russian forces have been trained by Iran and may have received advanced drones to kill Ukrainians.

While both regimes are very different in their ideals, they are both willing to project power abroad and have similar tactics of oppression.

Iran’s prisons are filled with regime critics and courageous journalists – including Niloofar Hamedi, first to report what happened to Mahsa Amini. In Russia as well, journalism is a deadly profession. So is criticizing Putin. Putin’s people tried and failed to murder Navalny, so they decided to keep him in a penal colony for a long time.

For people in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, there’s more than passing interest in the admittedly low probability that the Iranian regime could fall. It would change the lives of their countries, which had been influenced by Tehran. Iran has a constitution that calls for spreading its revolution.

For the rest of the world, it’s a time of uncertainty and expectation. Seven months ago, some viewed Putin as something of a genius. The myth has died down. The man who helped suppress uprisings, entered wars and tried to manipulate elections around the world is no longer around.

STAVKY, Ukraine — Racing down a road with his men in pursuit of retreating Russian soldiers, a battalion commander came across an abandoned Russian armored vehicle, its engine still running. Inside there was a sniper rifle, rocket propelled grenades, helmets and belongings. The men were not there.

The commander used the code name Swat and said they dropped everything from personal care to helmets. “I think it was a special unit, but they were panicking. They dropped everything and moved due to the rain and the road being bad.

Do Russian commanders really care about the consequences of their actions during the Ukrainian war? A recent interview with Vladimir Solovyov in the Ministry of Defense

The war has gone through different phases, with one side having an advantage and the other side not, and that makes it difficult to make wartime assessments. The Ukrainians defeated the Russians in the battle for Kyiv, only to see Russia grind forward during the brutal fighting in the Donbas over the summer.

Stremousov has been critical of the decision-makers in Moscow on the battlefield. He blamed commanders who didn’t hold them accountable for the military setbacks in Kherson.

In a recent interview with Russian arch-propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, the head of the defense committee in Russia’s State Duma demanded that officials cease lying and level with the Russian public.

Kartapolov complained that the Ministry of Defense was evading the truth about incidents such as Ukrainian cross-border strikes in Russian regions neighboring Ukraine.

Volovyk is a 33-year-old software engineer who learned English by playing video games. During the war, Russian tactics have improved, but some of their early actions were puzzling. The Russians deployed riot police who went toward Kyiv, only to be wiped out.

Near the border with Ukraine, Valuyki is in the Belgorod region. When it comes to striking Russian targets, Kyiv has usually adopted a neither confirm nor deny stance.

“There is no need to somehow cast a shadow over the entire Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation because of some, I do not say traitors, but incompetent commanders, who did not bother, and were not accountable, for the processes and gaps that exist today,” Stremousov said. Many say that the Minister of Defense could shoot himself if he wanted to, because he allowed this to happen. But, you know, the word officer is an unfamiliar word for many.”

Kadyrov has been more willing to attribute blame to Russian commanders after the retreat of Russia from the Ukrainian city of Lyman.

Kadyrov blamed Lapin, the commander of the Central Military District, for the fiasco, accusing him of moving his headquarters away from his subordinates and failing to adequately provide for his troops.

According to I SW, the Russian information space has deviated from the narratives preferred by the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Kremlin.

Putinism’s main feature is a desire to remember World War II in Russia as the Great Patriotic War. The use of punishment battalions, sent soldiers accused of desertion, cowardice or wavering against German positions as cannon fodder, and the brutality of the tactics used by the Red Army in the war against Hitler are said to be admired by those in Russia.

Kadyrov – who recently announced that he had been promoted by Putin to the rank of colonel general – has been one of the most prominent voices arguing for the draconian methods of the past. He recently said that he would give the government of Russia extraordinary wartime powers if he had his way.

The Kerch Bridge Bombing and Zaporizhia, Ukraine, are Relics of a Russian-Putant War

The barrage continued on a day when the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to human rights activists in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, an implicit rebuke to Russia and its president, Vladimir V. Putin, for his invasion of Ukraine.

Overnight nearly 40 Russian rockets hit Nikopol, on the Dnipro River, damaging at least 10 homes, several apartment blocks and other infrastructure, according to the head of the regional military administration, Valentyn Reznichenko. A man was killed and another was wounded in shelling on Friday.

There is a global affairs analyst named Michael Bociurkiw. He is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and he was a spokesman for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. He writes for CNN Opinion. The opinions expressed in his commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

Recent days have showed that sites beyond the current theater of ground fighting are not impervious to attacks. It remains unclear exactly how the Kerch bridge bombing was carried out – and Kyiv has not claimed responsibility – but the fact that a target so deep in Russian-held territory could be successfully hit hinted at a serious Ukrainian threat towards key Russian assets.

The assault killed many people and knocked the power out to a number of areas in the country. They showed the nature of the threat from Russia. For many months, the Russian objective has been to destroy Ukraine rather than possess it.

The significance of the strikes on central Kyiv, and close to the government quarter, cannot be overstated. It is being crossed on the 229th day of the war, so Western governments should see it as a red line.

As of midday local time, the area around my office in Odesa remained eerily quiet in between air raid sirens, with reports that three missiles and five kamikaze drones were shot down. Usually at this time of the day, nearby restaurants would be heaving with customers and chatter of upcoming weddings and parties.

Just a few hours earlier, Zaporizhzhia, a southeastern city close to the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, was hit by a series of strikes on apartment buildings. At least 17 people were killed and several dozens injured.

Ukrainian energy operators are getting used to repairing power plants. Zelensky said most of the towns and villages that terrorists wanted to leave had electricity and communication.

The early days of the war were very similar to this, with some outlets moving their operations to underground bomb shelters. In one metro station serving as a shelter, large numbers of people took cover on platforms as a small group sang patriotic Ukrainian songs.

At the urging of officials, businesses have been asked to shift work online more than once, while millions of people will be spending most of the day in bomb shelters.

Just as many regions of Ukraine were starting to roar back to life, and with countless asylum seekers returning home, the attacks risk causing another blow to business confidence.

Russia is struggling on the ground and has failed to achieve supremacy in the air, but Monday’s attacks may have achieved one goal – sending a signal of strength towards the growing list of Putin’s internal critics.

Hardwiring newly claimed territory with expensive, record-breaking infrastructure projects seems to be a penchant of dictators. Putin drove a truck across the opened the longest bridge in Europe. That same year, one of the first things Chinese President Xi Jinping did after Beijing reclaimed Macau and Hong Kong was to connect the former Portuguese and British territories with the world’s longest sea crossing bridge. The road bridge opened after two years of delays.

The explosion of social media: A message of desperation for the world, and for the Kremlin to be safe from the enemy

The explosion lit social media like a Christmas tree, with funny meme’s spreading like wildfire across the internet. Many shared their sense of jubilation via text messages.

The message was clear for the world to see. Putin does not intend to be humiliated. He won’t admit defeat. And he is quite prepared to inflict civilian carnage and indiscriminate terror in response to his string of battlefield reversals.

It was also an act of selfish desperation: facing increasing criticism at home, including on state-controlled television, has placed Putin on unusually thin ice.

It is important that Washington and other allies use urgent phone diplomacy to try to convince China and India not to use more deadly weapons.

To allow Putin’s violence and the humanitarian crisis that will erupt throughout Europe to continue will only make it worse. A weak reaction will be taken as a sign in the Kremlin that it can continue to weaponize energy, migration and food.

Russian Air Attacks on Ukraine – a Threat to the Security and Security of the Middle East – Has Putin Reached the Cold War?

High tech defense systems are needed to protect the energy infrastructure around the country. With winter just around the corner, the need to protect heating systems is urgent.

The time has also come for the West to further isolate Russia with trade and travel restrictions – but for that to have sufficient impact, Turkey and Gulf states, which receive many Russian tourists, need to be pressured to come on board.

The attacks took away the sense of security that city dwellers had after they had spent months in air raid shelters, as well as their fear of new strikes.

The targets on Monday had little military value and, if anything, reflected Putin’s need to find new targets because of his inability to beat the Ukrainians on the battlefield.

The bombing of power installations, in particular, Monday seemed to be an unsubtle hint of the misery the Russian President could cause as winter sets in, even as his forces retreat to the side of Ukrainian troops.

The White House didn’t say what kind of air systems would be sent, but the president spoke to the Ukrainian president and said that they would help defend against Russian air attacks.

The National Security Council has a strategic communications team led by John Kirby who reports that the US is looking favorably on Ukranian requests. He told Kate that they did the best they could in the subsequent packages.

Kirby was also unable to say whether Putin was definitively shifting his strategy from a losing battlefield war to a campaign to pummel civilian morale and inflict devastating damage on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, though he suggested it was a trend developing in recent days and had already been in the works.

It would have been something they had been planning for a long time. Now that’s not to say that the explosion on the Crimea bridge might have accelerated some of their planning,” Kirby said.

The rain of fire against the Ukrainian civilians on Monday was very chilling and it occurred in the wake of the debate over whether or not Putin might use a tactical nuclear weapon. It seems unlikely that he would make a decision to spare innocents from such a horrendous weapon if he didn’t. Kirby said that there was no indication that the US needed to change its nuclear posture or that Russia was doing so.

But French President Emmanuel Macron underscored Western concerns that Monday’s rush-hour attacks in Ukraine could be the prelude to another pivot in the conflict.

He was telling everyone where he was going during the winter. He is going to try to force the Ukrainian population to compromise, to give up territory, by going after this infrastructure,” Vindman said on CNN’s “New Day.”

Igor Zhovkva, Zelensky’s chief diplomatic adviser, told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on “The Situation Room” that Ukraine had shot down 56 of the 84 missiles and drones that were fired by Russia, in apparent revenge for an explosion on a strategic bridge leading to annexed Crimea that is critical for Moscow’s war effort and is a symbol of Putin’s rule.

“So imagine if we had modern equipment, we probably could raise the number of those drones and missiles downed and not kill innocent civilians or wound and injure Ukrainians,” Zhovkva said.

Giles believes that Russia can make the war personal by trying to get governments to remove their support for the people of Ukraine.

The lesson of this horrible war is that even though he doesn’t believe in the right of a nation to exist, Putin has made the nation stronger and united it.

Olena Gnes told Anderson Cooper live from her basement in Ukraine he was angry at the return of fear and violence to the lives of Ukrainians, from a new round of Russian “terror.”

“This is just another terror to provoke maybe panic, to scare you guys in other countries or to show to his own people that he is still a bloody tyrant, he is still powerful and look what fireworks we can arrange,” she said.

Russia’s state media insisted for a long time that their country was only hitting military targets in Ukraine, leaving out the suffering caused by the invasion.

On Monday, state television not only reported on the suffering, but also flaunted it. There was smoke and carnage in central Kyiv, along with empty store shelves, and a long-range forecast for months of freezing temperatures.

Over the last three days, the Russians have been using a mix of their missile stocks. The majority were air-launched cruise missiles, delivered by bombers near the Caspian Sea. They deployed Kalibrs from the Black Sea, ground-launched Iskander cruise missiles and dozens of attack drones.

It is already known that there is a risk of greater havoc for the civilian population if the Russians persist with their tactic of using missiles inundating air defenses.

“The barrage of missile strikes is going to be an occasional feature reserved for shows of extreme outrage, because the Russians don’t have the stocks of precision munitions to maintain that kind of high-tempo missile assault into the future,” Puri said.

It is difficult to estimate Russian missile inventories. In May, Zelensky said Russia had launched 2,224 missiles and used up 60 percent of the precision-missile arsenal. That now looks like a mirage.

The Russians have been experimenting with adapting the S-300 missile as an offensive weapon. Their speed makes them very difficult to intercept, and they wreaked devastation in Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv. But they are hardly accurate.

He told CNN’s Richard Quest that this was the “first time from the beginning of the war” that Russia has “dramatically targeted” energy infrastructure.

An official from the Defense Department said that work was being done on improving Ukrainian air defenses, including finding Soviet-era capabilities to make sure that countries were ready and could donate them.

Estimating the amount of Shahed drones that are eliminated is difficult because so many are being used. Zelensky said that “every 10 minutes I receive a message about the enemy’s use of Iranian Shaheds.” But he also said the bulk of them were being shot down.

This need is understood by the allies of Ukraine. The chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff said that after Russia attacked the Ukrainian civilians, we will be looking for air defense options that will help the Ukrainians.

Ukraine’s wish-list – circulated at Wednesday’s meeting – included missiles for their existing systems and a “transition to Western-origin layered air defense system” as well as “early warning capabilities.”

He said the system would not control all the airspace over Ukraine but they were designed to protect priority targets. What you’re looking at really is short-range low-altitude systems and then medium-range medium altitude and then long-range and high altitude systems, and it’s a mix of all of these.”

Western systems are starting to reach other parts of the world. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Tuesday that a “new era of air defense has begun” with the arrival of the first IRIS-T from Germany, and two units of the US National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAM) expected soon.

But these are hardly off-the-shelf-items. The IRIS-T had to be manufactured for Ukraine. Western governments have limited inventories of such systems. Missiles are being fired from three different directions into the country of Ukraine.

Russian military evacuation of Kherson residents after the September 11 attack on the Ukrainian-occupied Donetsk prisoner of war camp

The head of the military in Ukraine thanked Poland as a brother in arms on Tuesday, for training an air defense battalion that destroyed nine Shaheeds.

He said that Poland had given the Ukrainians tools to destroy drones. Last month there were reports that the Polish government had bought advanced Israeli equipment (Israel has a policy of not selling “advanced defensive technology” to Kyiv) and was then transferring it to Ukraine.

Russia announced on Thursday it would help evacuate the residents of Kherson from the region as the Ukrainians continued to make gains. The announcement came after the head of the Moscow-backed administration in Kherson appealed to the Kremlin for help moving residents out of harms way, the latest indication that Russian forces are struggling in the face of Ukrainian advances.

Saldo said local Russian leadership had “decided to organize the possibility of Kherson families traveling to other regions of the Russian Federation.”

Saldo claimed cities throughout Kherson, one of four Ukrainian regions Russia claimed to have annexed in violation of international law, were being hammered by dangerous airstrikes.

“We suggested that all residents of the Kherson region, if there is such a wish, to protect themselves from the consequences of missile strikes, should go to other regions … to take their children and leave.”

The residents of Kherson have been stocking up on food and fuel in preparation for a battle between the Russians and the Ukrainians.

According to Hromov, who was a senior Ukrainian military official, the forces have regained some 120 settlements in late September as they advance in the Kherson region. On Wednesday, Ukraine said it had liberated more five settlements in its slow but steady push in Kherson.

However, Kirill Stremousov, the deputy head of the Kherson region’s military administration, said that the civilian transports were not an “evacuation.”

Ukraine is demanding that the International Committee of the Red Cross immediately send a delegation to the Russian prisoner of war camp at Olenivka in the Russian-occupied Donetsk region.

The Russian Defense Ministry has not yet revealed the HIMARS attack. Insights from CNN’s Keir Giles, a senior consultant at Chatham House

The Russian Defense Ministry said a Ukrainian HIMARS rocket attack was responsible for the strike. After analyzing video and photos from the scene and satellite imagery from before and after the attack, the CNN investigation concluded that the Russian story was probably a fabrication.

In the aftermath of the attack, the Russian Defense Ministry said it was ready for the Red Cross to visit the camp. Despite requests from the organization, no visit was arranged.

He said the conditions under which Ukrainian inmates are held and the places they face in the Russian Federation and temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine are very important.

The war is getting close to an unpredictable new phase, not for the first time. Keir Giles is a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House and he said that this is the third, fourth, or fifth war they have been observing.

Though hesitant to make predictions, American and Ukrainian officials agree the fighting will continue for months more despite the fact that the war has favored Ukraine. The extent to which President Putin is willing to escalate the fight in December, as well as whether Europe can keep its unity this winter, are all possible variables that could become relevant in changing the trajectory of the conflict.

The stakes in the war have been raised as winter approaches. “There’s no doubt Russia would like to keep it up,” Giles said. The success of the Ukrainians in recent weeks has sent a message to the Kremlin. Giles said that they are capable of doing things that take us by surprise.

These counter-offensives had shifted the war’s momentum and disproved a suggestion that while Ukraine could defend territory, it wasn’t good enough to seize ground.

“The Russians are playing for the whistle – (hoping to) avoid a collapse in their frontline before the winter sets in,” Samir Puri, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the author of “Russia’s Road to War with Ukraine,” told CNN.

“If they can get to Christmas with the frontline looking roughly as it is, that’s a huge success for the Russians given how botched this has been since February.”

Even though he was appointed, analysts think the appointment is unlikely to have a big impact on how Russian forces are carrying out the war. It is also, in part, likely meant to “mollify” the nationalist and pro-war base within Russia itself, according to Mason Clark, Russia Lead at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think-tank.

There is a likelihood that a major blow to the rebels in the area will cause another powerful signal, as Ukraine tries to win back ground before it gets cold on the battlefield.

There are so many reasons why things can be done quickly in Ukraine. It is always a test of resilience for the people ofUkraine, and its western backers, when the winter energy crisis in Europe and the damage done to Ukraine’s power infrastructure is taken into account.

The electricity company Ukrenergo says it has restored power to parts of the country that were cut off after Russian missiles hit the country. The Ukrainian Prime Minister warned that there were a lot of repairs to be made, and asked Ukrainians to use less energy during peak hours.

Russian commanders on the ground know that their supplies are running out, Jeremy Fleming, a UK spy chief, said in a speech on Tuesday.

The ISW said in its daily update on the conflicts Monday that the strikes waste some of Russia’s dwindling precision weapons against civilian targets, as opposed to militarily significant targets.

Exactly how much weaponry and manpower each side has left in reserve will be crucial to determining how the momentum will shift in the coming weeks. Ukraine said it was able to intercept 18 cruise missiles on Tuesday and dozens more on Monday but it’s urging its western allies to have more defensive gear.

Any further Belarusian involvement in the war could also have a psychological impact, Puri suggested. “Everyone’s mind in Ukraine and in the West has been oriented towards fighting one army,” he said. It would be possible for Russia to see that this war is about getting the lands of ancient Rus states back.

Giles said that reopening the northern front would be a challenge for Ukranian. It would provide Russia a new route into the Kharkiv oblast (region), which has been recaptured by Ukraine, should Putin prioritize an effort to reclaim that territory, he said.

Now Zelensky will hope for more supplies in the short-term as he seeks to drive home those gains. More than half of the missiles and drones launched at Ukraine in a second wave of strikes on Tuesday were brought down by the Ukrainians, according to the leader.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Tuesday that more systems were needed for Ukraine in order to better stop missile attacks.

On the experience of Sergei Sergei Irisov in the Russian air force: how he fought with the Kremlin and Russia during the Cold War

He was the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Air Force during the time when the Russian military wreaked havoc in rebel-held areas in Syria.

Surovikin is “more familiar with cruise missiles, maybe he used his connections and experience to organize this chain of devastating attacks,” Irisov said​, referencing the reports that cruise missiles have been among the weapons deployed by Russia in this latest surge of attacks.

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with military personnel who were involved in operations in Syria at the Kremlin.

After spending time in Syria, where his political views clashed with his own, he quit his career in the military. “You understand who’s right and who’s wrong,” he said. I saw a lot of things inside the system.

The invasion of Ukraine began on February 24th, 2022, and the defense ministry told the TASS that everyone will be prosecuted if they don’t execute the propaganda scheme.

He had family in Kyiv, hiding in bomb shelters, and told CNN he knew “nothing could justify this war.” He knew from his military contacts that there were a lot of casualties in the first days of the war.

While serving at Latakia air base in Syria in 2019 and 2020, the 31-year-old says he worked on aviation safety and air traffic control, coordinating flights with Damascus’ civilian airlines. He ​says he saw Surovikin several times during some missions and spoke to high-ranking officers under him.

“He made a lot of people very angry – they hated him,” Irisov said, describing how the “direct” and “straight” general was disliked at headquarters because of the way he tried to implement his infantry experience into the air force.

Irisov says he understands Surovikin had strong connections with Kremlin-approved private military company the Wagner group​, which has operated in Syria.

In 2004, according to reports by the Russian media, he berated a junior person so much that he took his own life.

And a book by the think tank the Washington DC-based Jamestown Foundation says that during the unsuccessful coup attempt against former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev in August 1991, soldiers under Surovikin’s command killed three protesters, leading to Surovikin spending at least six months in prison.

In a 2020 report, Human Rights Watch named him as “someone who may bear ​command responsibility” for the dozens of air and ground attacks on civilian objects and infrastructure in violation of the laws of war​” during the 2019-2020 Idlib offensive in Syria. ​The attacks killed at least 1,600 ​civilians and forced the displacement of an estimated 1.4 million people, according to HRW​​, which cites UN figures.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/15/europe/russian-general-surovikin-profile-intl-cmd/index.html

Vladimir Putin and Sergey Surovikin: “True brutality is nothing new” after he was named commander of Russian operations in Syria

Vladimir Putin (left) toasts with then-Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev next to Sergey Surovikin after a ceremony to bestow state awards on military personnel who fought in Syria, on December 28, 2017.

In February this year, the European Union imposed sanctions on him for his actions which undermined and threatened the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukrainian as well as the stability or security of the country.

But Clark, from the ISW, suggests the general’s promotion is “more of a framing thing to inject new blood into the Russian command system” and “put on this tough nationalist face.”

His appointment “got widespread praise from various Russian military bloggers as well as Yevgeny (Prigozhin), who’s the financier of the Wagner Group,” Clark said.

He believes what’s happening now is a reflection of what happened in April, when another commander, Alexander Dvornikov, was appointed overall commander of the operations in Ukraine.

Clark said that he was a commander in one of the groups of Russian forces and had a reputation for brutality comparable to the one of Surovikin in Syria.

Russian Air Forces Aren’t Going To Be Used: Their Role in the Regime of the March 23rd Ukrainian Reaction

That’s not to say mobilized forces will be of no use. If used in support roles, like drivers or refuelers, they might ease the burden on the remaining parts of Russia’s exhausted professional army. They could also fill out depleted units along the line of contact, cordon some areas and man checkpoints in the rear. They are unlikely to be a good fighting force. Already there are signs of discipline problems among mobilized soldiers in Russian garrisons.

A day after the two men opened fire on their colleagues at a camp in the Belgorod area, there was another burst of blasts, which Russia blamed on Ukrainian shelling.

Inevitably, some draftees have already been killed or captured, stirring ever harsher criticism of the mobilization effort announced on Sept. 21 and considered a shambles from the start.

Critics said that the draft pulled in virtually anyone because it was of men in the reserves with military skills that needed refreshing.

“The result of the mobilization is that untrained guys are thrown onto the front line,” Anastasia Kashevarova, a military blogger who has supported the war, wrote in an angry post, one of several such broadsides.

“Chelyabinsk, Yekaterinburg, Moscow — zinc coffins are already coming,” she added. “You told us that there would be training, that they would not be sent to the front line in a week. Were you telling the truth again?

The mayor of Kyiv said there were at least two Russian airstrikes in the city. According to Ukraine’s public broadcast, two more hit the city.

The key places on the front line in the war are neighboring towns. Soledar and Bakhmut, where extremely heavy fighting continues,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video address Sunday.

Ukraine’s actions on Sunday as a probe of “forced deportation” of civilians by pro-Kremlin fighters

Zelenskyy accused Russia of including convicts “with long sentences for serious crimes” in its front-line troops in return for pay and amnesty — something Western intelligence officials have also asserted.

Zelenskyy’s office said that Moscow was bombarding towns and villages along the front line in the east on Sunday while hostilities continued in the south.

The area of Zaporizhzhia was annexed to Russia last month, despite the fact that some 20% of it is under Ukrainian military control.

— France, seeking to puncture perceptions that it has lagged in supporting Ukraine, confirmed it’s pledging air-defense missiles and stepped-up military training to Ukraine. A French defense minister said in an interview with Le Parisien that up to 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers would be embedded with military units in France and that they would receive specialized training in logistical and other needs.

The Institute for the Study of War accused Moscow of conducting “Massive, Forced deportations of Ukrainians,” which it said likely amounted to ethnic cleansing.

It referenced statements made this week by Russian authorities that claimed that “several thousand” children from a southern region occupied by Moscow had been placed in rest homes and children’s camps amid the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The original remarks by Russia’s deputy prime minister, Marat Khusnullin, were reported by RIA Novosti on Friday.

The Russian authorities said they had put children from Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine in need of a home in violation of an international treaty on genocide prevention.

— The Ukrainian military accused pro-Kremlin fighters of evicting civilians in occupied territories to house officers in their homes, an act it described as a violation of international humanitarian law. The eastern Luhansk region has been identified as the location of the evictions. It didn’t have any evidence to back up its claim.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/10/16/1129387209/ukraine-donetsk-separatist-russia-rocket-mayor

Investigating the case of Vladimir Putin over the MH17 flight downing: A court hearing on “Geran-2” bomb fragments

Girkin has been on an international wanted list over his alleged involvement in the downing of Kuala Lumpur-bound flight MH17, which killed 298 people. The Dutch court is expected to deliver its verdict in the case on Nov. 17.

The Moscow’s battlefield failures have been lashed out at recently by Girkin on social media. A $100,000 reward will be offered to anyone who captures him.

Several residential buildings were damaged. He said that rescue workers pulled 18 people from the rubble and are looking for two more. The city’s central streets are closed when emergency services are called in.

Zelenskyy’s chief-of-staff, Andriy Yermak, again called on the west to provide Ukraine with more air defense systems. He said that there was no time for slow actions.

When he uploaded a photo of bomb fragments labeled “Geran-2,” Russian’s designation for the Iranian drones, he was criticized by some commenters for showing them and removing the picture.

Putin’s martial law in Moscow vs. Moscow’s response to “concrete evidence” of Russian influence on Ukraine’s affairs

The foreign ministers of the European Union are in Luxembourg. Before the meeting, Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat, told reporters that the bloc would look into “concrete evidence” of Iran’s involvement in Ukraine.

Nuclear deterrence exercises are going to be held by NATO. NATO says the “Steadfast Noon” drills are a routine, annual training activity, despite warnings that Russia shouldn’t use nuclear weapons on Ukraine.

Russian agents have been questioning eight people suspected of carrying out a large explosion on a bridge.

The mayor of Moscow, Sergey Sobyanin, seemed to be taking pains to offer reassurances. “At present, no measures are being introduced to limit the normal rhythm of the city’s life,” Mr. Sobyanin wrote on his Telegram channel.

The new power of Mr. Putin was not enough to stop the regional governors from relaxing their entry and exit restrictions.

Analysts say that Russians will see a warning message in the martial law imposed by Moscow for the first time in 66 years.

“People are worried that they will soon close the borders, and the siloviki” — the strong men close to Mr. Putin in the Kremlin — “will do what they want,” Ms. Stanovaya said.

Russia has redeployed some of its troops from Syria as a result of the invasion of Ukraine, according to three senior officials in the Middle East.

Putin Prolonge War: European Manifold Forces in the Winter after a Cold War and the Fate of the Russian Economy

David A. Andelman, a CNN contributor and author of the book “A Red Line in the Sand”, is also a member of the French Legion of Honor. He formerly was a correspondent for The New York Times and CBS News in Europe and Asia. The views are his own, but not in this commentary. You can read more opinion at CNN.

First, he’s seeking to distract his nation from the blindingly obvious, namely that he is losing badly on the battlefield and utterly failing to achieve even the vastly scaled back objectives of his invasion.

There are a number of variables that affect this ability to keep going, ranging from the availability of critical and affordable energy supplies for the winter to popular will across a broad range of nations.

In the early hours of Friday in Brussels, European Union powers agreed a roadmap to control energy prices that have been surging on the heels of embargoes on Russian imports and the Kremlin cutting natural gas supplies at a whim.

An emergency cap on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, and permission for EU gas companies to create a cartel to buy gas on the international market are included in these.

While French President Emmanuel Macron waxed euphoric leaving the summit, which he described as having “maintained European unity,” he conceded that there was only a “clear mandate” for the European Commission to start working on a gas cap mechanism.

Still, divisions remain, with Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, skeptical of any price caps. Now energy ministers must work out details with a Germany concerned such caps would encourage higher consumption – a further burden on restricted supplies.

All of these divisions are part of Putin’s dream. Manifold forces in Europe could prove central to achieving success from the Kremlin’s viewpoint, which amounts to the continent failing to agree on essentials.

Many of these issues are already at odds between Germany and France. Though in an effort to reach some accommodation, Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have scheduled a conference call for Wednesday.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/opinions/putin-prolonge-war-ukraine-winter-andelman/index.html

Italy’s new prime minister has not done anything but stay: Prolonging the War ukraine WWAndelman frustrated with the EU, Poland, and Hungary

There is a new government in Italy. Giorgia Meloni was sworn in Saturday as Italy’s first woman prime minister and has attempted to brush aside the post-fascist aura of her party. One of her far-right coalition partners has a lot of respect for Putin.

Berlusconi, in a secretly recorded audio tape, said he’d returned Putin’s gesture with bottles of Lambrusco wine, adding that “I knew him as a peaceful and sensible person,” in the LaPresse audio clip.

The other leading member of the ruling Italian coalition, Matteo Salvini, named Saturday as deputy prime minister, said during the campaign, “I would not want the sanctions [on Russia] to harm those who impose them more than those who are hit by them.”

At the same time, Poland and Hungary, longtime ultra-right-wing soulmates united against liberal policies of the EU that seemed calculated to reduce their influence, have now disagreed over Ukraine. Poland has taken offense at the statements of Hungary’s populist leader, Viktor Orban.

The leader of the House, Kevin McCarthy, who is poised to become Speaker if Republicans take control, has predicted that people are going to be sitting in a recession. They will not do it.

On Monday, the influential 30- member Congressional progressive caucus called on Biden to meet with Russia and start talks on ending the conflict while its troops are still occupying large swaths of the country and its missiles and drones are hitting deep into the interior.

Hours later, caucus chair Mia Jacob, facing a firestorm of criticism, emailed reporters with a statement “clarifying” their remarks in support of Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also called his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba to renew America’s support.

Indeed, while the US has proffered more than $60 billion in aid since Biden took office, when Congress authorized $40 billion for Ukraine last May, only Republicans voted against the latest aid package.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/opinions/putin-prolonge-war-ukraine-winter-andelman/index.html

The End of the Soviet Era: Implications for High-Tech Weaponry Production in the Cold War with the West and the Kremlin

Many of the forces in the Western world would be able to kick in if the conflict were to continue for as long as possible. A long, cold winter in Europe, persistent inflation and higher interest rates leading to a recession on both sides of the Atlantic could mean irresistible pressure on already skeptical leaders to dial back on financial and military support.

This support in terms of arms, materiel and now training for Ukrainian forces have been the underpinnings of their remarkable battlefield successes against a weakening, undersupplied and ill-prepared Russian military.

All these actions point to an increasing desperation by Russia to access vitally-needed components for production of high-tech weaponry stalled by western sanctions and embargos that have begun to strangle the Kremlin’s military-industrial complex.

Russian production of hypersonic missiles has stopped due to the lack of necessary semi-conductors, says a report. Plants making anti-aircraft systems are shutting down, aircraft are being cannibalized and Russia has reverted to Soviet-era defense stocks. More than 30 years ago, the Soviet era ended.

On the day before the report, the US announced it had taken property of a top Russian procurement agent and his agencies that were responsible for procuring US-origin technologies for Russian end- users.

The Justice Department also announced charges against individuals and companies seeking to smuggle high-tech equipment into Russia in violation of sanctions.

“I know what you are doing,” Says Nikitin and Volovyk, two veterans of the Ukrainian army in Mykolaiv

However, there are still hardliners like the leader of Russia’s puppet city in eastern Ukraine, who claimed that he would not kill Ukrainians but would convince them. If you do not want to be persuaded, we will kill you. We’ll kill as many as we have to: 1 million, 5 million, or exterminate all of you.”

MykolaIV is in Ukranian On the second day of the war with Russia, Anatoliy Nikitin and Stas Volovyk, two Ukrainian army reservists, were ordered to deliver NLAW anti-tank missiles to fellow soldiers in the suburbs north of Kyiv. The battle nickname Concrete says they received new orders as they stood exposed on the highway.

A guy is on the radio and says two Russian tanks are about to attack. Hit one and livestream it, that’s what Nikitin says as he sits on a park bench in the southern city of Mykolaiv.

There was one problem: neither soldier had ever fired an NLAW. As the tanks approached, they hid amongst some trees, and watched a video on how to do it. They prepared the missiles and took their positions.

The commander said “Oh, it’s ours!” It’s ours!’” recalls Volovyk, who goes by the nickname Raptor. We did not fire. It was a really close call.”

Nikitin and Volovyk have fought in both environments and describe their on-the-job training as a mix of terror, adventure and black comedy. The two men offer an unvarnished view of the fighting and say the first days of the war were filled with confusion.

“It was total chaos,” recalls Nikitin, who is 40, wears a salt-and-pepper beard and heads a construction company. It was lucky that the Russians were a bit more chaotic than us.

Volovyk, who wears a camouflaged cap with a message that says “Don’t worry, be ready”, was worried that they were just mocking him.

The Russians began to retreat from the suburbs. The two men left after this and went south to fight a different kind of war. They left behind the protection of suburban buildings and forests outside the capital for sweeping farm fields with little cover. They started at the bottom: working the trenches.

Volovyk says it sucks. “You dig. You dig. That’s the only thing you can do, because this is an artillery war and unless you dig, you’re pretty much dead.”

New jobs were offered to the men after two weeks. It’s a dangerous job to get close to enemy lines and try to avoid detection. But the men leapt at the opportunity — anything to get out of the trenches.

They now operate drones and serve as the eyes of the artillery, helping to guide fire on everything from Russian tanks to ammunition depots in the Kherson region.

Nikitin and Volovyk say they prefer military-grade surveillance drones to commercial ones. The military drones are a lot harder to jam than other drones.

The soldiers have had some heart-stopping moments. Nikitin recalls traveling with a team of engineers when they came across a Russian soldier in a field.

“He looks at me, I look at him and he just jumps into the bushes,” recalls Nikitin. He then told the engineers to go shoot the Russian and any of his fellow soldiers.

Nikitin and Volovyk joined the army reserve six years ago, after the Russians invaded Crimea. They knew Russia would try to take the rest of Ukranian. They are aiming to liberate Kherson, the regional capital.

Grisly videos filmed by Ukrainian drones showing Russian infantry being struck by artillery in poorly prepared positions have partly supported those assertions, as has reporting in Russian news media of mobilized soldiers telling relatives about high casualty rates. The videos have not been independently verified and their exact location on the front line could not be determined.

The Russian military was staging 80 assaults a day, according to a statement from General Zaluzhnyi, the supreme allied commander in Europe.

An assessment from the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based analytical group, also said that the increase in infantry in the Donbas region in the east had not resulted in Russia’s gaining new ground.

The institute said on Thursday that Russian forces would have had more success in such operations if they had waited until enough personnel had arrived.

In the south, where Ukrainian troops are advancing toward the Russian-occupied city of Kherson, the Ukrainian military said Friday morning that its artillery battalions had fired more than 160 times at Russian positions over the past 24 hours, but it also reported Russian return fire into Ukrainian positions.