New SuperPACs: The Challenge of Representing the U.S. Senate and Implications for Democratic Electoral Representation
The field has shifted slightly back in the Republicans’ direction due to the fact that races are coming into focus for more people and a lot of television advertising for GOP candidates.
The Senate Leadership Fund, a superPAC aligned with Republican Senate LeaderMitch McConnell, has spent over fifty million dollars in the last two weeks.
A very new group aligned with the former President Trump has popped up and is spending a lot. They have poured in about $2 million in two states — Pennsylvania and Ohio, places where Trump-endorsed Senate candidates are struggling.
Democrats are in control because of the White House, but they still have a majority in the Senate. Republicans need to get a single seat to wrest control of the chamber.
If Democrats take Pennsylvania, Republicans would need to pick up two seats to win control. That makes Nevada critical to the GOP’s chances. If they aren’t able to take Georgia or Nevada, they’d likely need to sweep both Arizona (next on our list) and New Hampshire, which is tougher for them and has slipped down the list to No. 7 because of a weaker Republican candidate. Previous: 4
Democrat Ginzburg-Landau: The Case for an Abrupt Campaign and the Case for a Woman’s Dilemma
The lead held by Democrat John Fetterman over Republican Mehmet Oz has changed significantly following a month of million of dollars in TV ads spent by Republican outside groups.
Fetterman had a stroke that halted his campaign for a long time, and Oz’s struggles with swing voters and his base are at issue as well. Fetterman’s deft social media team capitalized on several stumbles made by Oz, from the appearance of his party in front of “Hitler’s limo” to the fact that he didn’t say anything. All eyes will be on the Oct. 25 debate between the two.
If ever there was a test of whether scandals still matter in this era of hyper-partisanship, this is it. Republican Herschel Walker’s problems continue with the allegation that he paid for an ex-girlfriend, who says she’s the mother of one of his other children, to have an abortion. He denied the allegation. Walker received an abortion receipt and a check from his ex, and also signed a get well card according to the Daily Beast. The outlet also reported that a friend of the ex-girlfriend, who was not named but was told the story at the time, also corroborated the report.
Republicans are warily watching what happens here. Even though Walker collected lots of money after the news, he hasn’t regained the same level of enthusiasm. Still, Republicans in the state don’t have any other GOP options, Brian Kemp is expected to do well in his gubernatorial election, which could help Walker in the end, and this is still a place that at least leans toward Republicans despite its swing-state status. But this is the kind of allegation that would have sunk previous campaigns. The result will say a lot about our politics — although Republicans already voted for a candidate who was accused of sexual misconduct by almost two dozen women and who bragged about assaulting women. Next: 2
While Democrats maintain that Catherine Cortez Masto is running a good campaign, she’s fallen behind Adam Laxalt, the opponent of the 2020 presidential election. The most vulnerable incumbent senator right now is Cortez Masto.
Democrats started to spend more money in the state to help shore it up. They are hitting O’Dea particularly on gun safety and accusing him of “talking out of both sides of his mouth” on abortion. Resources, however, are finite and Republicans are happy to see Democrats have to use some in this Democratic-leaning state. Next: 10
The economy is one of the reasons for the Republican opportunity here. Some Democrats fear the party is not focusing on the economy in a focused way and is too focused on abortion. The state has a high population of working-class whites, Latinos and Asian Americans still trying to recover from the economic effects of the pandemic.
Latinos are a key group to watch. Republicans say they have been able to convert the group over the effects of the epidemic and their frustration with progressive Democratic positions.
Democrats have traditionally done well in Nevada by turning out their base voters, and they say Cortez Masto has been up on the air with Spanish-language ads for months and is well-liked in the Latino community. There are questions about the ability of the party to get out the vote. Democrats believe they have the resources and organization to do it well, but this election will be a big test of whether they can keep the Nevada turnout machine going.
The race has gotten tighter according to operatives in both parties. Arizona is a place where Republicans outnumber Democrats and where independents really matter. Both incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly and his opponent, Trump-backed challenger, Blake Masters, are dealing with that hurdle.
Masters ran an ad earlier in the cycle, when he was trying to win the primary, saying that Trump won the 2020 election. In a general-election debate against Kelly last week, he called President Biden the “legitimate president.” He’s made more than one shift, but this one is quite the one.
Masters also backtracked on his hardline stance on abortion. He had called himself “100% pro-life” and advocated for a federal “personhood” law “that recognizes that unborn babies are human beings that may not be killed.” His stance in ads was described as “common sense” by him while trying to portray Kelly as an “extremist” on the issue.
The Senate Leadership Fund, which is tied to the Senate’s minority leader, has stopped spending money in the state. That makes it even more challenging for Masters without that air support. Kelly, meanwhile, in this border state where Republicans outnumber Democrats, distanced himself from Biden in the recent debate, saying he criticized the president when he “decided he was going to do something dumb” on immigration. Next: 3
Incumbent Ron Johnson hasn’t backed down from controversial positions, and his favorability ratings have struggled. He knows how he’s viewed, and has run a hard-nosed campaign. Republicans are more confident about this race now than a month ago, though, as they’ve run a deluge of ads attacking Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes on crime – and Johnson has seen a boost in the polls as a result.
Barnes was slow to respond, but has now gone on the air with an ad featuring a retired police sergeant. “Mandela doesn’t want to defund the police; he’s very supportive of law enforcement,” the retired sergeant says in the ad. Barnes is also going after Johnson on abortion now and Democrats expect this race to tighten and be a 1-to-2 point race, as so many statewide races in Wisconsin have been.
North Carolina, which is a Republican-controlled seat, has trended up in the top 10, and both sides believe it will be a close finish between the two candidates. There aren’t enough resources poured into the race, which they think is winnable, and so they want the race to be competitive in order to push Beasley over the finish line. So lately, there’s been a bit of an uptick in Democratic spending. We will see if it makes a difference.
Beasley, first Black woman to serve as chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, has run a fairly nonantagonistic campaign in this state with a high number of right-leaning independents. She cares about abortion rights, as well as voting by black people in rural counties, like other democrats in the country.
Budd’s campaign has caught the attention of many Republicans. Budd doesn’t appear to be doing much to court independent voters after he called his campaign a risk averse. He hugged Trump, called every county a “border country”, and accused her of being deceptive when she said that she was a moderate.
Republicans got their candidate – and it’s not the one the establishment wanted. The path for the Democratic incumbent could be easier than before she faces off against a retired army brigadier. Gen. Don Bolduc. He has been in alignment with Trump, he denied the election results and he has boosted vaccine conspiracy.
It’s going to be difficult to sell in this state, where about 40% of people are independents and abortion is an issue. It was reported on Friday that the National Republican Senatorial Committee decided to stop advertising in the state. Previous: 6
Because it’s right-leaning Ohio, Ryan has deemphasized party and is focusing on a message of finding “common ground,” like in this ad with his wife. Vance has been trying to soften his image in ads with his wife – and hitting Ryan on crime – after coming across as a firebrand who won Trump’s endorsement and made controversial statements about women. Previous: 8
Incumbent Marco Rubio has continued to hold a consistent lead in this race against Democratic challenger, Rep. Val Demings, despite Demings raising a significant amount of money. Something else to watch in this race, though, is what effect Hurricane Ian will have, which is unclear at this point as the cleanup continues.
Many other places are still dealing with the aftermath of the flooding caused by the hurricanes, like the city of Jacksonville, which is a mostly Republican area but took direct hits from the storm. The campaigns and committees are still trying to adjust with just a month to go in the election. Previous: 9
Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/10/11/1127573261/key-senate-races
A Look at the Bellwether Democratic Races in Washington State, and the Case Against Inflation: The Case For A New Senator
O’Dea will be challenging incumbent Senator Michael Bennet in a race that is moderate in tone and will see the Republican challenge an incumbent Democrat. The race could be decided in single digits, though Bennet is still favored.
Worth keeping an eye on: The Senate race in Washington state, between incumbent Democrat Patty Murray and Republican veterans advocate Tiffany Smiley, has been in single digits in the last several polls. Murray has led in all of them and touted her tenure and items in recent Democratic-passed legislation, even as Smiley has tried to use those very things against her, saying they’ve led to inflation. Republicans are even running an ad showing Murray morphing into President Biden. Murray has focused on tangible items included in legislation she fought for, like lowering prices for prescription drugs and insulin.
Below are several of the key bellwether districts to watch on election night on Nov. 8 that might tell us how big (or small) a GOP wave might be (organized by poll-closing time):
IN-1 (D-Mrvan) Toss Up: After redistricting, incumbent Frank Mrvan (D) is in a district that became more Republican, but would have gone for Biden by 3 points in 2020. His challenger is Jennifer-Ruth Green, an Air Force veteran who would be the only Black Republican woman in Congress, if elected. One that could be decided by a single vote, it is a race that Democrats would need to win to maintain control of the House.
VA-7 (D-Spanberger) Toss Up: Incumbent Abigail Spanberger (D) has outraised and outspent challenger Yesli Vega (R), though this remains a close and crucial election. The district Biden had been in would have been won by 7 points if the district had been redistricted. Republicans represented the district from 1971 until 2018 when Spanberger defeated then-incumbent David Brat (R), who had upset then-Republican House leader Eric Cantor in a 2014 primary. Spanberger has highlighted her bipartisan record and hammered Vega for her hardline stance on abortion. The campaign of a law enforcement officer is about cost of living and public safety. She also makes an appeal mixing Spanish and English in this district where about one-in-five voters is Latino.
NC-13 was newly created. Toss Up: State Sen. Wiley Nickel (D) is running against Republican Bo Hines, a 27-year-old former college football player. Hines has the backing of Trump and is a self-described “MAGA Warrior,” but Nickel, who is a criminal defense attorney, has criticized Hines for his lack of qualification. Independent and moderate Republicans who disagree with him on issues like abortion, which is termed genocide by some, are being pushed for support.
OH-9 (D-Kaptur) Lean Democrat: This district was made more Republican and opened up Democratic incumbent Rep. Marcy Kaptur to a challenge from Republican Air Force veteran J.R. Majewski. If reelected, Kaptur will be the longest-serving woman ever in Congress. Kaptur was a tough out for Majewski, who painted his lawn in the image of a giant Trump lawn sign and was at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, but says he left before. Majewski was criticized for having lied about his military service. The House GOP campaign arm decided not to go ahead with an ad buy in the district if Kaptur stumbles.
PA-17 (D-Open) Toss Up: Democrat Chris Deluzio and Jeremy Shaffer (R) are in a tight race for this seat vacated by incumbent Democrat Rep. Conor Lamb. The race is seen as a barometer for working-class voters. Deluzio is a moderate Democrat and he wants to make bipartisanship a central part of his campaign. This race has drawn lots of attention from outside groups, who have spent $12 million in this suburban Pittsburgh district that would have gone for Biden 6 points after redistricting. One of the democrats should hold onto it. It will be a long night for the party in power if they don’t.
Messing in Maine can really be bad. pinch. It all came to a … boil … when Republican Bruce Poliquin hit Democratic incumbent Jared Golden during a debate for not returning a campaign donation from the head of a group that warned against buying Maine lobsters because of their supposed danger to whales. Golden says the money will be used for the defense of the fishing industry. So it goes in politics Down East. It has been a trio of times that the Golden and Poliquin game is being played. Golden is a rare species – not crustacean, but a Democrat in a district Trump won twice.
NH-1 is the D-Pappas. Toss Up: Incumbent Democrat Chris Pappas is facing Karoline Leavitt (R), a conservative Gen Z candidate who served in the Trump administration. Pappas leads Leavitt in fundraising, but the two remain neck and neck. During the primary, establishment Republicans supported Leavitt’s opponent, but since her win, Republican House leaders have donated to her campaign.
PA-7 (D-Wild) Toss Up: Incumbent Susan Wild (D) is in a rematch with Lisa Scheller (R). The second time is the charm, because this district has changed with the redrawn map. Wild has focused on health care, childcare, Scheller’s record on abortion and has attacked her for outsourcing jobs as a businesswoman. The goal of Scheller is to open up Pennsylvania’s energy resources. Scheller has avoided commenting on whether she supports controversial GOP gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano.
CO-08 (R-Newly created) Toss Up: This district stretches north of Denver along I-25 up toward Fort Collins in a quickly growing – and heavily Latino – area. He would have won with only a small percentage of the vote. abortion rights and energy are the two issues dominating this campaign. The Democrats in the race are headed by state Rep. Yadira Caraveo. Caraveo’s opponent is focusing on inflation, the budget, energy jobs, and trying to paint her as aligned with progressive Democrats.
MI-10 was newly created. There is a newly formed district that would have gone for Trump by only a point. John James is favored here. The margin can be used as an indication of control of the House or the size of the wave.
Republican Don bacon won his last election by 4 points despite the district voting for Biden. State Sen. Tony Vargas (D) has leaned into abortion and lowering prescription drug and medical care costs.
Democrats have targeted the heavily Latino district for years and it is one of their top targets this year. David Valadao’s seat became even more tilted toward Democrats after redistricting, going from one President Biden won by 9 points in 2020 to one he would have won by 13. Rudy Salas is hardly campaigning on the far left in this Central Valley district as Valadao is stressing his cross sectional appeal. He touts both helping get overtime for farmworkers and raising the minimum wage, but also being the only Democrat in the state Assembly to vote against a gas tax increase.
CA-45 (R-Steel) Lean Republican is the type of district that Republicans will need to hold in order to get a large majority in the House. Biden won this mostly Asian American district narrowly with 52% of the vote, yet Steel is favored. The latest controversy here erupted with Steel, who is Korean American, sending mailers into a heavily Vietnamese neighborhood, accusing her opponent Jay Chen, who is Taiwanese American, of being a Communist sympathizer. It’s not the first spat over identity – earlier in the campaign, Steel took offense to comments Chen made about Steel’s accent.