The North Korean Launch of a High-Speed, Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile over the Tohoku Region: Security Threats for Japan
The weapons fired include both cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, the latter of which have formed the large majority of North Korea’s tests this year.
The missile flew over 4,600 kilometers (2,858 miles), with an altitude of over 1,000 kilometers (621 miles), and a top speed of 17 times the speed of sound according to Japanese officials.
Two experts told CNN these flight details suggest the missile fired was likely a Hwasong-12 – an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) last tested in January.
“This is a missile that North Korea started testing in 2017 … Jeffrey Lewis said that it wasn’t a new missile.
Lewis said the risks are low, particularly in the Pacific and high above Japan. Mostly, it’s an escalation simply because “it’s provocative to fire a missile over your neighbor.”
And if the test had failed, causing the missile to fall short, it could have endangered major population areas. The missile flew over Japan’s Tohoku region, according to Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, which is home to more than 8 million people.
US planes have been grounded for a while because of North Korean missile launches. Several commercial jet pilots saw what appeared to be the re-entry of a North Korean missile into the sea in late November of last year.
“For the Japanese especially, it feels like a violation of their sovereignty,” Lewis said. We would have a fit if Russia shot a missile over Florida.
Robert Ward, senior fellow for Japanese Security Studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, pointed to the multiple security threats faced by Japan, from an aggressive Russia to its north and China to its south.
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The North Korea’s are not interested in having a conversation. Jeffrey Lewis is the director of the East Asia Nonproliferation project at the Institute of International Studies.
Analysts reported that with Monday’s reports, North Korea began to reopen its testing program. Before that, an announcement and images of the tests were usually made available the next day.
Joseph Dempsey, research associate for defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, added that Tuesday’s flight path could just make for a better test.
Kim, the professor, said the missile’s estimated 600-kilometer (370-mile) flight indicated the launch could be a test of exploding a nuclear weapon above South Korea’s southeastern port city of Busan, where the Reagan previously docked. He said the missile tested appeared to be a new version of North Korea’s highly maneuverable KN-23 missile, which was modeled on Russia’s Iskander missile.
North Korean state media believes the missile tests were part of a series of simulations intended to demonstrate its readiness to fire nuclear weapons at targets in South Korea.
He said this was an “introductory” course for the main course. “I would expect that when North Korea has more confidence in one of their ICBMs, they might fly one of those to full range over Japan.”
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, added that North Korea could be waiting until after China holds its Communist Party Congress in mid-October to “conduct an even more significant test.”
The test posed a challenge to the South Koreans effort to strengthen their relationship with the United States and improve their ties with Japan, a former colonial ruler of Korea. The longest distance ever traveled by a North Korean missile was about 2,800 miles, officials in Tokyo and South Korea said.
The launch was called dangerous and reckless by a spokeswoman for the White House National Security Council. She described the missile as a long-range missile unlike the South Korean government. Jake Sullivan, the National Security Adviser, spoke with his counterparts in Japan and South Korea on Tuesday about how to respond to any future attacks on the United States.
Here are the things you need to know about North Korea, why they’re ramping up and what the US can do to stop them.
The leaders of South Korea and Japan met at the United Nations last month in New York. The two leaders talked about the threat from North Korea. The United States, Japan and South Korea have conducted their first trilateral anti-submarine and missile-tracking exercises in a long time.
The bases in Guam were within reach of the launch. Jake Sullivan called his counterparts in Japan and South Korea to coordinate the response to the launch, according to the White House.
The new conservative government in South Korea, that took office in May, has emphasized deterrence over diplomatic engagement, raising concerns about the possibility of more missile tests from North Korea.
Observers say Kim may use his country’s missile and nuclear tests to pressure the U.S. and other countries into lifting international sanctions placed on North Korea.
The US and South Korea conducted a precision bombing exercise on Tuesday which involved a South Korean F-15K fighter jet firing two missiles at a virtual target in a firing range west of the Korean Peninsula.
The launch took place in the early hours of the morning at the west coast of North Korea, but the vehicle traveled about 700 kilometers before falling into the Sea of Japan.
A statement by the South Korean Joint Chiefs said that Wednesday’s launch included four missiles. These weapons can fly around 200 miles (320 kilometers) and are known as Army Tactical Missile Systems.
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Kirby stated that this was not the first time they had done this in response to provocations from the North to make sure they could demonstrate their capabilities.
There isn’t a lot of a plan at the moment to get North Korea to negotiate and make concessions on denuclearization.
International leaders are now watching for signs of a further escalation such as a potential nuclear test, which would be the hermit nation’s first in nearly five years – a move that would present US President Joe Biden with a new potential foreign policy crisis.
Then the Covid-19 pandemic hit, pushing North Korea further into isolation. Foreign diplomats and aid workers fled the country after it sealed its borders. In 2020, there will be four launches and in 2021, there will be eight.
First, it could simply be the right time after the events of the last few years, with Kim declaring victory against Covid in August, and a new US administration in place that has focused on shows of unity with South Korea.
“They’ve been unable to test for quite a few years due to political considerations, so I’d expect North Korean engineers and generals to be very eager to make sure their toys are going to work well,” said Andrei Lankov, a professor at South Korea’s Kookmin University.
“They want to remind the world that they should not be ignored, that they exist and their engineers are working around the clock to develop both nuclear weapons and delivery systems,” said Lankov.
In a statement Thursday, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Pyongyang’s repeated launches “of ballistic missiles are a serious provocation that harms the peace and stability of not only the Korean Peninsula but also the international community.”
Schuster said the missile tests began in January and that they were beginning to report on what Putin was doing outside of his country. “Kim Jong Un is doing what he thinks he can get away with – he’s not expecting any kind of strong US reaction.”
He added that Kim’s weapons testing serves a dual purpose: apart from making a statement to the international community, it also boosts his own image domestically and cements the regime’s power.
The US and its allies did not have much to do to stop North Korea from conducting weapons tests.
“The Americans sent the Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier. Lankov said that the missiles that the South Koreans are launching are not necessarily working well. “What is the impact of all these American aircraft carriers cruising around Korea? It was pretty much nothing.
Launch of a Tactical Missile in North Korea: The US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield and a Professor at the Ewha University
The North does not have the widespread use of technology which facilitates economic and societal advances, as well as providing critical opportunities to glean information for the intelligence services of the US and its allies.
Chris said it was a hard intelligence problem to get inside the leader of North Korea’s head since he has a lot of what the country does driven by him.
The UN would be putting pressure on Russia and China to improve sanctions on North Korea, according to US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield.
The law shows that North Korea wants to strengthen its ties with both China and Russia, according to a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.
An Army Tactical Missile System is fired during a military training session between the United States and South Korea.
Since its last report of a launch in March, the KCNA, North Korea’s state-run media, has made no mention of missile launches.
The meeting of the party elite is the most important event of the Chinese political calendar this year, with the Chinese leader expected to be re-elected as the most powerful Chinese leader in decades.
Kim “depends too much on Chinese aid to keep his country afloat,” meaning he can’t afford to “do anything to detract from the Party Congress,” said Schuster. “So although China can’t dictate to him what he must do … he will not cause them problems.”
North Korea has many reasons for publishing a high-profile missile story at the moment, says a professor at Ewha University. “Kim Jong Un’s public appearance after a month-long absence provides a patriotic headline to mark the founding anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party.”
Three days later, they had a simulation of putting a tactical nuclear warhead on a missile in the event of war that would destroy airports in South Korea.
The Korean Central News Agency said that the actions were taken in response to the South Korean live-fire exercises near the border.
The missile launches by the North Korean army marked the first time that they have done such drills, said a person at the private Sejong Institute.
The public launch of a missile by the North was the first of its kind and it has conducted previous tests of missiles from a submarine.
Kim says that it is likely that North Korea aims to expand the launch sites so that they are harder to detect in the event of a missile liftoff.
KCNA said when the weapon launched from the reservoir was flying above the sea target, North Korean authorities confirmed the reliability of the explosion of the missile’s warhead, apparently a dummy one, at the set altitude.
North Korea released a slew of photos on the launches. One showed Kim and Ri Sol Ju, both dressed in field jackets, frowning and covering their ears. Ri’s elevated political standing is due to the fact that she was the first person to observe a weapons launch with her husband.
Kim said the South Korean military was aware of the situation in a timely manner and maintained their readiness by working with the US.
“What I find notable is that these launches are not framed as tests of the missiles themselves, but rather of the units that launch them. That suggests these systems are deployed,” Lewis said on Twitter.
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The largest US military installation outside of the United States is Camp Humphreys in South Korea, with a population of more than 36,000 US servicemembers, civilian workers, contractors and family members.
North Korea had many motives for making an announcement Monday, according to a professor at Ewha Womans University.
The ruling party of it’s 77th anniversary is making an explicit nuclear threat behind the recent missile launches and providing a patriotic headline for domestic consumption.
He said that the KCNA report was a sign that Kim would conduct a nuclear test with a type of warhead that would arm the units he visited in the field.
Kim said that his regime will take all military countermeasures if the need arises.
A US Navy aircraft carrier strike group participated in several days of bilateral and trilateral exercises with South Korean and Japanese units that ended Saturday, a statement from the US Navy’s Task Force 70 said.
“Our commitment to regional security and the defense of our allies and partners is demonstrated by our flexibility and adaptability to move this strike group to where it is needed,” said Rear Adm. Michael Donnelly, commander of Task Force 70/Carrier Strike Group 5.
The security environment around Japan is getting more severe and the exercises with the US Navy are bolstering the alliance’s ability to respond to threats.
According to the report, the cruise missiles flew for almost three hours above the sea before hitting their target.
Progress of the No-Fly Zone in the North of the Korean Warfare Converging with a Live-fire Artillery Drilling
The details of these reports can’t be trusted, said an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University. “The Kim regime is sometimes surprisingly transparent about weapons development goals, but it also tends to exaggerate strength and capabilities.”
The professor at the University of North Korean Studies says the program is progressing even if current strengths are overstated.
A cruise missile is powered by a jet engine, stays inside Earth’s atmosphere during its flight and is maneuverable with control surfaces similar to an airplane’s.
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It is not okay for policymakers in Tokyo and Washington to allow domestic politics and other challenges to prevent them from increasing international coordination on military deterrence and economic sanctions.
New tensions are flaring between the Koreas, with the North flying warplanes near their shared border and launching the latest in a series of missiles and the South holding a live-fire artillery drill.
North Korean aircraft approached the no-fly zone straddling the border between 10:30 p.m. Thursday and 12:20 a.m. Friday, according to the South’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, in a move that Pyongyang followed up just hours later with its 27th missile launch of the year.
According to CNN, the South Korean military confirmed that an exercise had taken place 10 kilometers away from the border but said it didn’t violate an agreement with the North. According to the Korean government, the agreement was broken by the firing of 170 rounds of bombardment into the sea off its west coast.
The South Korean government expects the sanctions will have “the effect of blocking illegal fund transactions with these North Korean agencies and individuals and remind the domestic and international community of the risks of transacting with them,” the ministry said.
It was the highest number of missiles fired by North Korea on a single day, and it included a missile that flew close to the South Korean coastline, according to the JCS.
Next week, South Korea is set to conduct a large-scale joint air force training with the US involving the US’ F-35B stealth jet, according to the South Korean Air Force.
The United Nations’s nuclear watchdog is concerned about a possible test of the Holocene for a future North Korean missile launch
Speaking to reporters on Thursday, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog said “everyone is holding its breath about” a potential North Korean nuclear test which could provide further confirmation of a program that is moving full steam ahead.
We are following this very closely. We hope it doesn’t happen but indications unfortunately go in another direction,” said IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi.
The US Defense Department states that the exercises involve over 200 aircraft and thousands of service members from both countries.
In Japan, the presumed ICMB launch triggered warnings to take shelter in the northern Miyagi, Yamagata and Niigata prefectures, where the Japanese Prime Minister’s office initially said it was expected to fly over. Japan’s Defense Ministry later evaluated that the missile did not cross over Japan.
It could, at least theoretically, put the entire US mainland in range of a North Korean nuclear warhead, but there’s a lot of unknowns about the missile’s capability to deliver a nuclear payload on target.
Thursday’s launches take the count of North Korean missile tests to at least 30 so far this year, according to a CNN tally – though the count of individual missiles is far higher.