Ukranian War, Russia, and Putin: The End Game in the War and the Ruling of the Russo-Republikan Correspondence

Putin seems to be following this logic, rubber-stamping the sham referendums in Ukranian regions and declaring them part of Russia.

The spokesman for Mr. Putin said that the Russian leader is expected to give a speech. He is likely to downplay his military’s struggles in Ukraine and rising domestic dissent. He will probably ignore worldwide denunciations of discredited referendums held in occupied Ukraine on joining Russia, where some were made to vote at gunpoint.

In a post on Telegram, Medvedev – who served as President of Russia between 2008 and 2012 – said: “The Ukrainian state in its current configuration … will pose a constant, direct and clear threat to Russia. In addition to protecting the people of the country and the borders of it, the goal of our actions in the future should be the dismantling of the political regime of Ukranian.

Hill advises the presidents of the US on national security and thinks Putin may be attempting an end game. “He feels a sense of acute urgency that he was losing momentum, and he’s now trying to exit the war in the same way that he entered it. The person is in charge with him framing the terms of a negotiation. There is a sign

Putin is running up a dangerous political tab because of his recent drive to have 300,000 troops drafted, which will not reverse his battlefield losses.

Independent Russian media quoting Russia’s revamped KGB, the FSB, put the total exodus even higher. They say more military age men have fled the country since conscription – 261,000 – than have so far fought in the war – an estimated 160,000 to 190,000.

Traffic tailbacks at the border with Georgia are one of the things that CNN is unable to verify, but there are other things that show Putin is losing his touch.

Kortunov says he doesn’t know what goes on in the Kremlin but that he understands the public mood over the huge costs and loss of life in the war. “Many people would start asking questions, why did we get into this mess? Why, you know, we lost so many people.”

This pressure from the West may finally be producing real results. Putin’s announced martial law in Ukrainian territories Russia now only partly controls, attacks on civilian targets deep in Ukraine’s interior, and a new, hardline commander in Ukraine, General Sergei Shurokin, nicknamed “General Armageddon” by colleagues, all suggest a growing frustration bordering on fear that the Russian people may begin noticing what has long been blindingly obvious: Putin is losing.

He used the same playbook annexing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and now, like then, threatens potential nuclear strikes should Ukraine, backed by its Western allies, try to take the annexed territories back.

The rain of fire against Ukrainian civilians on Monday was also chilling, given that it occurred following Putin’s latest nuclear threats and days of debate over whether he might use a tactical nuclear weapon. If he does not, it seems unlikely – given his obliviousness to civilian pain – that any such decision would be motivated by a desire to spare innocents from such a horrific weapon. Kirby said that there was no indication that the US should change its nuclear posture or that Russia was using nuclear weapons.

Explosive Shock Waves from the Seabed: U.S. Response to Putin’s Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage

Both Danish and Swedish seismologists recorded explosive shockwaves from close to the seabed: the first, at around 2 a.m. local time, hitting 2.3 magnitude, then again, at around 7 p.m., registering 2.1.

Within hours, roiling patches of sea were discovered, the Danes and the Germans sent warships to secure the area, and Norway increased security around its oil and gas facilities.

The Nord Stream pipeline sabotage could, according to Hill, be a last roll of the dice by Putin, so that “there’s no kind of turning back on the gas issues. And it’s not going to be possible for Europe to continue to build up its gas reserves for the winter. Putin is throwing everything at this right now.

Brennan thinks that Russia is most likely to have been behind the sabotage, and that Putin is trying to send a message to Europe. He is not sure what he will be planning next.

When Europe was attempting to replenish gas reserves ahead of the winter, Putin diverted the flow of Russian supplies into Nord Stream 1 while he remained in charge of the other two.

The bottom line, said Hill, is that “this is the result of Ukraine gaining momentum on the ground on the battlefield and of Putin himself losing it, so he’s trying to adapt to the circumstances and basically take charge and get every advantage.”

Putin is trying to split Western allies over terms for peace, after failing in the face of military unity on the part of the West.

It is anticipated that Putin will pitch France and Germany first because they need to end the war, protect their territories, and put pressure on the Ukrainians.

Putin doesn’t seem to realize how small his space is, which is a worry, since he might make good on his nuclear threats.

They join an army already degraded in quality and capability. In the war inUkraine, the composition of Russia’s military has changed as a number of its active duty personnel have been wounded or killed and some of its best equipment has been destroyed. The Russian military leadership is unlikely to know with confidence how this undisciplined composite force will react when confronted with cold, exhausting combat conditions or rumors of Ukrainian assaults. According to recent experience, the troops might abandon their positions and equipment in panic like they did in September in the Kharkiv region.

Sept. 28: Moscow-backed officials in occupied parts of Ukraine made appeals for the regions to join the Russian Federation. The approval rating of Putin fell in a Levada Center poll. The U.S. Defense Department, meanwhile, announced $1.1 billion in additional security aid to Ukraine.

NATO leaders have promised to stand behind Ukraine regardless of how long the war takes, but several European countries rely heavily on Russian energy and are in danger of a cost-of-living crisis, if there isn’t more progress on the battlefield.

Here, you can read past recaps. For context and more in-depth stories, you can find more of NPR’s coverage here. Listen and subscribe to the State ofUkraine magazine for daily updates.

Democracy is not a crime: Iranian women and men in sexism and terrorism demonstrate the courage of the Palestinian people to fight back

Former CNN producer and correspondent, Frida Ghitis, is a world affairs columnist. She’s an opinion columnist for The Washington Post, a columnist for World Politics Review and a weekly opinion contributor to CNN. Her own views are expressed in this commentary. View more opinion on CNN.

On Sunday, almost by accident, two groups of demonstrators came together in London. One was waving Ukrainian flags; the other Iranian flags. When they met, they cheered each other, and chanted, “All together we will win.”

On the surface, the conflict in Iran and the war inUkraine are very different. They are being fought by individuals who risk their lives to defend their right to live as they choose; to push back against violent, entrenched dictatorships.

Bravery is almost unthinkable for the rest of us and these David v. David battles inspire equally brave support in places like Afghanistan.

The death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini last month in Iran sparked a fire. Known as “Zhina,” she died in the custody of morality police who detained her for breaking the relentlessly, violently enforced rules requiring women to dress modestly.

In scenes of exhilarated defiance, Iranian women have danced around fires in the night, shedding the hijab – the headcover mandated by the regime – and tossing it into the flames.

The peaceful uprising is more about cutting the shackles of oppression than about the hijab; men have joined them in large numbers even as the regime kills more and more protesters.

The rise and fall of the Iranian regime in the Middle East: a tale of genius, tragedy and loss for the world and for the rest of the world

Russia has a large military presence in Syria and helps maintain the government’s grip on power. The change may change the balance of power in one of the most complex conflict zones in the world and may lead Israel to rethink its stance on the Ukraine conflict.

An onslaught on civilians would be consistent with the resume of the new Russian general in charge of the war, Sergey Surovikin, who served in Syria and Chechnya. In both places, Russia indiscriminately bombarded civilian areas and razed built-up districts and infrastructure and is accused of committing serious human rights violations.

The repressive regimes in Moscow and Tehran are now isolated, pariahs among much of the world, openly supported for the most part by a smattering of autocrats.

Iran is emerging as a rare ally of the Kremlin, giving both weapons and international support, as evidenced by the Iranian-made drones that Russia used to bomb Ukraine’s capital.

While very different in their ideologies, the two regimes have in common many of the same tactics and willingness to project power abroad.

Multiple Putin critics have died. Many have fallen out of windows. According to Freedom House, both Iran and Russia have become leading practitioners of the practice of “torturers on foreign soil.”

For people in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, there’s more than passing interest in the admittedly low probability that the Iranian regime could fall. It would have a profound impact on their countries and their lives. Iran’s constitution calls for spreading its revolution.

For the rest of the world, it’s a time of uncertainty and expectation. Seven months ago, some viewed Putin as something of a genius. The myth has ended. The man who helped suppress uprisings, entered wars and tried to manipulate elections around the globe now seems to be in deep trouble.

Monday night attacks on the Kerch bridge in Kiev, Ukraine: Russia’s largest city accused of terrorist attacks and its response to Kiev’s actions

The owner of a limousine company fell out with his partner and later sought a new business opportunity: selling rockets to the Ukrainian military.

They wrote to the ministry of defense about time being of the essence. The plan was to sell American, Bosnian and other weapons to Ukraine.

Indeed, while the US has proffered more than $60 billion in aid since Biden took office, when Congress authorized $40 billion for Ukraine last May, only Republicans voted against the latest aid package.

Michael Bociurkiw is a global affairs analyst. He is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and used to work for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. He is a regular contributor to CNN Opinion. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

In some ways, Monday’s attacks were not a surprise – especially after Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday accused Kyiv of attacking the Kerch bridge, calling it an “act of terrorism.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin claims the strikes were a response to acts of terrorism by Kyiv. Specifically, he referred to Saturday’s explosion on the Kerch Bridge linking Russia and Crimea – which he blamed on Ukraine’s “special services” – and a list of other alleged “crimes.”

The strikes occurred when people headed to work and students were dropping off at schools. A friend told me that she had just left the bridge when it was struck.

The area around the office remained quiet as air raid sirens sounded, with unconfirmed reports that five drones and three missiles were shot down. At this time of the day, nearby restaurants would be filled with customers and chatter of upcoming weddings and parties.

Monday’s attacks also came just a few hours after Zaporizhzhia, a southeastern city close to the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, was hit by multiple strikes on apartment buildings, mostly while people slept. At least 17 people were killed and many more injured.

Anton Gerashcenko, a spokesman for Ukraine’s Internal Ministry, reported attacks on infrastructure near the city’s main rail station, but lines were operating as normal midmorning Monday.

In the northeastern city of Kharkiv, which has seen more bombardments than Kyiv, residents shifted to war footing and stocked up on canned food, gas and drinking water. Yet they also entertained themselves at the Typsy Cherry, a local bar. The owner told The Times that the mood was cheerful. “People drank, had fun and wondered when the electricity will resume.” (Power came back hours later.)

Indeed, millions of people are going to spend most of the day in bomb shelters, at the urging of officials, as businesses have been asked to shift work online as much as possible.

Just as many regions of Ukraine were starting to roar back to life, and with countless asylum seekers returning home, the attacks risk causing another blow to business confidence.

The symbolism of the only bridge connecting mainland Russia and the peninsula of Crimea cannot be overstated by Putin. A day after his 70th birthday, the attack took place, and creative social media denizens created a split-screen video of Marilyn Monroe singing Happy Birthday, Mr President, which can be seen as an added blow to an aging autocrat.

It is thought that dictators have a penchant for hardwiring newly claimed territory with expensive infrastructure projects. Putin opened the longest bridge in Europe by driving a truck across it. When Beijing reclaimed Macau and Hong Kong, it made sense to connect them with the world’s longest sea crossing bridge. The $20 billion, 34-mile road bridge opened after about two years of delays.

Ukraine’s Security Crisis in the Light of Kravets-Bedi-Kolimov Spectroscopes and the Kremlin

The reaction among Ukrainians to the explosion was instantaneous: humorous memes lit up social media channels like a Christmas tree. People shared their jubilation with text messages.

For Putin, consumed by pride and self-interest, sitting still was never an option. He responded in the only way he knows how, by unleashing more death and destruction, with the force that probably comes natural to a former KGB operative.

It was also an act of selfish desperation: facing increasing criticism at home, including on state-controlled television, has placed Putin on unusually thin ice.

Before Monday’s strikes, the Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate at Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, had told Ukrainian journalist Roman Kravets in late August that, “by the end of the year at the minimum we have to enter Crimea” – suggesting a plan to push back Russian forces to pre-2014 lines, which is massively supported by Ukrainians I’ve spoken to.

Important is that Washington and other allies use urgent telephone diplomacy to convince both China and India to resist the urge to use more deadly weapons.

Anything short of these measures will only allow Putin to continue his senseless violence and further exacerbate a humanitarian crisis that will reverberate throughout Europe. The Kremlin will take a weak reaction as proof that it can weaponize energy, migration and food.

Furthermore, high tech defense systems are needed to protect Kyiv and crucial energy infrastructure around the country. With winter just around the corner, it’s essential to protect heating systems.

The Russian Air Defense Mission to Ukraine: What Do We Expect to Learn from the White House, and Where Does It Come From? When Will We Contact the US?

The time has also come for the West to further isolate Russia with trade and travel restrictions – but for that to have sufficient impact, Turkey and Gulf states, which receive many Russian tourists, need to be pressured to come on board.

The White House did not specify which air defense systems Biden discussed with Zelensky, but the United States previously committed to providing Ukraine with National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems. Russian cruise missiles could be hit by NASAMS.

Biden, the statement said, “also underscored his ongoing engagement with allies and partners to continue imposing costs on Russia, holding Russia accountable for its war crimes and atrocities, and providing Ukraine with security, economic, and humanitarian assistance.”

A senior administration official said there was no plans to make any announcements about what the US would consider giving Ukraine, but that they will continue to provide the country with air defense systems.

NASAMS has yet to be delivered to Ukraine according to the Department of Defense. At that time, it was called the brigadier. Gen. Patrick Ryder said two systems were expected to be delivered in the next two months, with the remaining six to arrive at an undetermined date.

Estimating Russian missile inventories is guesswork. In May, President Volodymr Zelensky said Russia had launched 2,154 missiles and had probably used up 60% of its precision-missile arsenal. It looks like a bad idea now.

According to the deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, Russia should aim for the complete dismantling of Zelensky’s regime.

John Kirby, a spokesperson for the National Security Council, said Monday that there will likely be additional support packages for Ukraine announced “in the very near future.”

“It’s clear that he’s feeling the pressure both at home and overseas, and how he reacts to that only he can say,” Kirby told CNN’s Kate Bolduan on “Erin Burnett OutFront.”

Last week, Biden delivered a stark warning about the dangers of Putin’s nuclear threats, invoking the prospect of “Armageddon.” Multiple US officials have said the comment wasn’t based on any new intelligence and was just a comment on existing information.

The lessons of Kiev from the air raids in Kiev: Putin’s new “terror” and his “war” against Ukrainian civilians

The city dwellers who took shelter in the air raid shelters after the war in subways lost a sense of security and were afraid of new strikes.

But the targets on Monday also had little military value and, if anything, served to reflect Putin’s need to find new targets because of his inability to inflict defeats on Ukraine on the battlefield.

The bombing of power installations, in particular, Monday appeared to be an unsubtle hint of the misery the Russian President could inflict as winter sets in, even as his forces retreat in the face of Ukrainian troops using Western arms.

Kirby could not say whether Putin was officially shifting his strategy from a losing battlefield war to a campaign to damage Ukrainian cities and infrastructure or if it was just a trend that had already begun.

They probably had been planning this for a long time. Now that’s not to say that the explosion on the Crimea bridge might have accelerated some of their planning,” Kirby said.

While the French President believes that the Monday attacks inUkraine could be a sign of a new pivot in the conflict.

According to a former director for European Affairs of the National Security Council, Putin was sending a message about how he would prosecute the war by attacking targets that were designed to hurt Ukrainians.

“When Ukraine receives a sufficient number of modern and effective air defense systems, the key element of Russian terror – missile strikes – will cease to work.”

“So imagine if we had modern equipment, we probably could raise the number of those drones and missiles downed and not kill innocent civilians or wound and injure Ukrainians,” Zhovkva said.

Any prolonged campaign by Putin against civilians would be aimed at breaking Ukrainian morale and possibly unleashing a new flood of refugees into Western Europe that might open divisions among NATO allies that are supporting Ukraine.

The lesson of the war was that Putin has only strengthened and unified a nation he doesn’t believe has the right to exist.

Olena Gnes told CNN’s Anderson Cooper she was angry at the return of fear and violence to the lives of Ukrainians from the new round of Russian “terror.”

She said that it is a terror to scare you guys in other countries because he is still a bloody tyrant, and that we can arrange fireworks to show you that.

The Belarusian strongman and a new joint force: a warning against the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus after the February 28 invasion

Russia massed tens of thousands of troops in Belarus before its February invasion and used Belarusian territory as a staging ground for its initial, unsuccessful assault on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. Moscow has hundreds of troops from which it launches missiles and bombing raids in neighboring Belarus but their number is now expected to increase.

“This won’t be just a thousand troops,” Mr. Lukashenko told senior military and security officials in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, after a meeting over the weekend with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in St. Petersburg.

He did not give a specific reason for the new joint force or its purpose, raising speculation that it may be used to help Russia in its war with Ukraine. He could be preparing for the arrival of thousands of freshly drafted Russian soldiers, some of them former convicts, and many who are ill trained.

The Belarusian strongman, who has so far resisted pressure from Moscow to send in his own troops, accused Ukraine, which shares a long border with Belarus, of planning attacks from the south, without citing evidence.

The establishment of a joint force with Russia will reinforce the view in Ukraine that Belarus is clearly a “co-aggressor,” a label that Mr. Lukashenko has rejected but which took on new force on Monday after a barrage of Russian missile attacks on Kyiv and elsewhere, some of them launched from Belarusian territory, according to Ukrainian officials.

During his visit to St. Petersburg, Belarusian state media reported that Mr. Lukashenko had “stressed the need to take measures in case of the deployment of nuclear weapons in Poland,” a remark that some analysts interpreted as preparing the ground for the possible deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus, something that he has long said would never happen.

Mr. Sannikov, who served as a deputy foreign minister under Mr. Lukashenko but fled into exile after being imprisoned, said Mr. Lukashenko’s fear of losing control over his army made him flee to exile.

MOSCOW — For months, Russia’s state media has insisted that the country was hitting only military targets in Ukraine, leaving out the suffering that the invasion has brought to millions of civilians.

On Monday, state television not only reported on the suffering, but also flaunted it. It showed plumes of smoke and carnage in central Kyiv, along with empty store shelves and a long-range forecast promising months of freezing temperatures there.

A video from Monday showing a soldier using a shoulder-held missile to bring down a Russian projectile is just the latest example of Ukrainian air defense battalions being innovative.

Until more arrive, there is the risk – all too familiar to the government and people of Ukraine – that the Russian mix of missiles will wreak much greater havoc among the civilian population, especially if the Russians persist with the tactic of using swarms of missiles, inundating air defenses.

Experts believe it remains unlikely that Russia’s aerial bombardment will form a recurrent pattern; while estimating the military reserves of either army is a murky endeavor, Western assessments suggest Moscow may not have the capacity to keep it up.

Moscow had more than half of its pre-war inventory, but Russia was the lowest on cruise missiles, particularly air- launched cruise missiles, according to the Pentagon.

Some of that inventory was dispatched this week. But Russia has recently resorted to using much older and less precise KH-22 missiles (originally made as an anti-ship weapon), of which it still has large inventories, according to Western officials. They’re designed to take out aircraft carriers. A KH-22 was responsible for the dozens of casualties at a shopping mall in Kremenchuk in June.

The Russians have adapted the air defense missile, known as the S-300, as a weapon that can be used on the offensive. They wreaked havoc in Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv and their speed makes it hard to intercept them. But they are hardly accurate.

He told CNN’s Richard Quest that this was the “first time from the beginning of the war” that Russia has “dramatically targeted” energy infrastructure.

The NATO Allies provided the Ukrainian air defense systems that shot down many of the incoming missiles this week.

The US had seen evidence that the Iranian drones had failed, according to the deputy undersecretary of defense.

Ukraine’s wish-list – circulated at Wednesday’s meeting – included missiles for their existing systems and a “transition to Western-origin layered air defense system” as well as “early warning capabilities.”

He said that the system would not be able to control all of the airspace, but was designed to keep priority targets out of the way. It has both short-range low- altitude systems and medium- range medium altitude systems, as well as long-range and high altitude systems.

The western systems are starting to arrive. Two units of the US National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAM) are expected to be installed in the US in a few months, according to the Ukrainian Defense Minister.

“This is only the beginning. The first item on the agenda is to improve Ukraine’s air defense. I feel like I’m optimistic.

These are not off-the-shelf items. The IRIS-T was made in Ukranian. Western governments have limited inventories of such systems. And Ukraine is a very large country under missile attack from three directions.

Poland’s help in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the Chern-Simons bombing on April 5, 2005: a Russian air defense officer tells the press conference

Poland helped train a Ukrainian air defense battalion that successfully destroyed nine of 11 Shaheeds. General Valerii Zaluzhnyi gave thanks to Poland on Tuesday.

He said Poland had helped the Ukrainians destroy drones. There were reports last month that Poland purchased advanced Israeli equipment, and was transferring it to Ukranian.

Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, told the international community how much money his nation needed to rebuild and keep its economy afloat. He shared that figure with the boards of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Mr. Zelensky said $17 billion would be needed to rebuild schools, hospitals, transport systems, and housing, and $2 billion would be spent on expanding exports to Europe and restoring Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

The images captured hundreds of cargo trucks backed up and waiting to cross from Crimea into Russia by ferry, some five days after the bombing. There is a big back up at the port in Kerch and a line of trucks miles away at the airport that is being used as a staging area.

The long ferry crossing lines were made worse by the security check set up after the bridge explosion, says a senior Russia analyst.

The Middle East War is Moving Faster than It Should Have Be: KIM Giles’ Comment on the recent Ukrainian successes in Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk

For the first time the war is headed towards a new phase. Keir Giles is a senior consultant at Chatham House and he said that this is the third, fourth, or fifth war they have been observing.

Despite the fact that the fighting has favored Ukrainians recently, American andUkrainian officials say the fighting will continue for months more. Some variables could become pertinent in shifting the trajectory of the conflict: more difficult fighting conditions in December, the extent to which President Putin will escalate the fight, and the effect of energy prices on unity in Europe.

It means that, as winter approaches, the stakes of the war have been raised once more. Giles thinks that Russia would like to keep it up. The Ukrainian successes of recent weeks have sent a direct message to the Kremlin. Giles said that they can do things that take us by surprise and that they must be used to it.

Oleksii Hromov, a senior Ukrainian military official, said last week that Kyiv’s forces have recaptured some 120 settlements since late September as they advance in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Kherson regions. On Wednesday, Ukraine said it had liberated more five settlements in its slow but steady push in Kherson.

Russia said Thursday its forces would help evacuate residents of occupied Kherson to other areas, as Ukraine’s offensive continued to make gains in the region. The announcement came shortly after the head of the Moscow-backed administration in Kherson appealed to the Kremlin for help moving residents out of harm’s way, in the latest indication that Russian forces were struggling in the face of Ukrainian advances.

These counter-offensives have shifted the momentum of the war and disproved a suggestion, built up in the West and in Russia during the summer, that while Ukraine could stoutly defend territory, it lacked the ability to seize ground.

The Russians are playing for the whistle, hoping to avoid a collapse in their frontline before the winter sets in, according to an International Institute for Strategic Studies expert.

It would be a huge success for the Russians if they can get Christmas with the frontline looking the way it is.

Moscow is likely to defend Starobilsk and the Luhansk region in the coming months, with the Institute for the Study of War saying that Ukrainian troops are focused on pushing Russian forces eastwards.

A big blow to the rebels in the eastern part of the country would act as a strong signal to the Ukrainians that they need to improve their game before it’s too late.

Giles said there were many reasons why the Ukrainian government wanted to get things done quickly. “The winter energy crisis in Europe, and energy infrastructure and power being destroyed in Ukraine itself, is always going to be a test of resilience for Ukraine and its Western backers.”

Ukraine’s national electricity company, Ukrenergo, says it has stabilized the power supply to Kyiv and central regions of Ukraine after much of the country’s electricity supply was disrupted by Russian missile attacks on Monday and Tuesday. Ukrainian Prime Minister asked the people to reduce energy use during peak hours, as there is a lot of work to be done to fix damaged equipment.

Jeremy Fleming, a UK’s spy chief, said in a speech on Tuesday that Russian commanders know that their supplies are running out.

“Russia’s use of its limited supply of precision weapons in this role may deprive Putin of options to disrupt ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensives,” the ISW assessed.

Exactly how much weaponry and manpower each side has left in reserve will be crucial to determining how the momentum will shift in the coming weeks. Ukraine said it was successful at intercepting 18 cruise missiles on Tuesday but called on the Western allies to have more protection from future attacks.

The impact of such an intervention in terms of pure manpower would be limited; Belarus has around 45,000 active duty troops, which would not significantly bolster Russia’s reserves. It would threaten another assault on the northern flank of the country.

“The reopening of a northern front would be another new challenge for Ukraine,” Giles said. He said that should Putin prioritize his effort to regain control of that region, there would be a new route into it.

Zelensky will hope for at least a short-term increase in supplies in order to push those gains home. More than half of the missiles and drones launched at Ukranian in a second wave of strikes on Tuesday were brought down by the Ukrainian defense forces, according to the leader.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that more systems were needed to stop missile attacks, as NATO’s defense ministers prepared to meet.

Explosions Ukrainianraine-kyiv-week-after-russian-strikes-intensifies east-east

That’s not to say mobilized forces will be of no use. If used in support roles, like drivers or refuelers, they might ease the burden on the remaining parts of Russia’s exhausted professional army. They could also fill out depleted units along the line of contact, cordon some areas and man checkpoints in the rear. They are not likely to become a capable fighting force. There are problems among soldiers in Russian garrisons.

Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko said at least two Russian airstrikes targeted downtown Kyiv. Two more also hit the city, according to Ukraine’s public broadcaster.

The office says some residential buildings were damaged. He added that rescuers pulled 18 people from the rubble of one building and are looking for two more. The city’s central streets are closed down for emergency services to respond.

The enemy can attack but it won’t break us. The occupiers will get only fair punishment and condemnation of future generations, and we will get victory,” wrote Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The chief- of-staff at Zelenskyy called on the west to give Ukraine more air defense systems. “We have no time for slow actions,” he said online.

After commenters criticized him for posting the photo of “Geran-2”, he removed it.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/10/17/1129399013/explosions-ukraine-kyiv-week-after-russian-strikes-intensifies-east

EU-Russia relations with Ukraine and the tension between the epochs of war and diplomacy: an update from the Minsk crisis

European Union foreign ministers are scheduled to meet today in Luxembourg. Josep Borrell, the European Union’s top diplomat, told reporters before the meeting that the EU would look into “concrete evidence” of Iran’s involvement in Ukrainian politics.

It’s a partnership of convenience between two dictatorships, said an Iran expert.

Both countries are suffering from a deep crisis. Iran is attempting to quell street protests that pose the most serious challenge in years to the government, while Russia tries to manage a falling war effort and an unpopular draft.

NATO will hold nuclear deterrence exercises starting Monday. NATO told Russia not to use nuclear weapons on Ukraine but they also said the “Steadfast noon” drills are a yearly activity.

Russian agents detained eight people on Oct. 12 suspected of carrying out a large explosion on a bridge to Crimea, including Russian, Ukrainian and Armenian citizens.

The Russian Defense Ministry said two men shot at Russian troops and killed eleven people and wounded fifteen others before taking their own lives.

Russian troops began arriving in Belarus Oct. 15, which Minsk said were the first convoys of almost 9,000 service members expected as part of a “regional grouping” of forces allegedly to protect Belarus from threats at the border from Ukraine and the West.

Moscow’s crisis in Ukraine and the U.S. midterm elections: How much do we care about the future? A comment by Marta Makarova

Some regional officials — including the mayor of Moscow, Sergey Sobyanin — appeared to be taking pains to offer reassurances. Mr. Sobyanin said that no measures are being instituted to limit the normal rhythm of the city’s life.

And despite the new power granted them by Mr. Putin, the regional governors of Kursk, Krasnodar and Voronezh said no entry or exit restrictions would be imposed.

Many Russians are likely to notice the warning message in the martial law imposed in Ukraine by Moscow, which is the first one since World War II.

“People are worried that they will soon close the borders, and the siloviki” — the strong men close to Mr. Putin in the Kremlin — “will do what they want,” Ms. Stanovaya said.

On Tuesday, the newly appointed commander of the Russian invasion, Gen. Sergei Surovikin, acknowledged that his army’s position in Kherson was “already quite difficult” and appeared to suggest that a tactical retreat might be necessary. The general said he had the ability to make tough decisions about military deployment, but did not say what those might be.

In a signal that the faltering invasion of Ukraine has eroded Moscow’s influence elsewhere, Russia has recently redeployed critical military hardware and troops from Syria, according to three senior officials based in the Middle East.

KYIV, Ukraine — Sitting on a park bench by a tram stop in Kontraktova Square, Marta Makarova, a 21-year-old budding social media influencer, takes a break from talking with two friends about Instagram to talk instead about the war. The amount of their safety depends on U.S. support.

The upcoming U.S. elections and comments made by billionaire Musk are the topics that are the most discussed on his social media channels.

Plugged-in Ukrainians are keeping a close eye on next month’s U.S. midterm elections. There is concern about long term support for the war effort if Republicans take control of the House.

Similar forces seem to be at work in Washington where House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy, poised to become Speaker of the House if Republicans take control after next month’s elections, told an interviewer, “I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. They won’t do it.

He told the publication that people are going to be sitting in a recession, and that they wouldn’t write a check for Ukraine.

Dozens of House Republicans voted against a Ukraine aid bill in May. Last month, all but ten House Republicans voted against a government funding package that included billions of dollars earmarked for Ukraine.

A line of Ukrainian politicians, activists — even soldiers — have been traveling to Washington in advance of the midterms to keep up relations and lobby for more aid.

There is a member of the parliament that is part of the Servant of the People party. Since the start of the war she traveled to Washington twice to meet with leaders from both sides of the aisle.

But Kniazhytskyi worries about the influence of a vocal group of Republicans, many aligned with former President Donald Trump, as well as conservative TV personalities who have been speaking out against the billions of dollars going to Ukraine.

Over roughly the same time, the percentage of Americans who said they were extremely or very concerned about Ukraine’s defeat fell from 55% in May to 38% in September.

The war in Ukraine is becoming an engine that fuels a far-right push for more influence; a symbiotic relationship between Putin and his fans in the West. Just as a political action committee linked to the former Trump aide Stephen Miller is arguing against spending on Ukraine, somehow linking it to poverty and crime in the US, like-minded figures in Europe are trying to promote their views by pointing to their country’s hardships as the cost of helping Ukraine. Support for the country remains strong in Europe and the US.

Burkovskiy laments how Ukraine got sucked into Trump’s first impeachment, after Zelenskyy came close to submitting to Trump’s demand to announce an investigation into the family of then-candidate Joe Biden.

“When there is someone, let’s say a member of House, and he or she speaks about ‘why are we spending money and Ukraine is corrupt, is not winning,’ and people in Ukraine hear this — it means, like, ‘Oh my God, that’s a new American position that’s going to prevail,’” he says.

The balance of power in Washington makes it difficult for a few Republicans to change the course of the war. And he emphasizes that Ukraine has much bigger problems than U.S. politics.

This support in terms of arms, materiel and now training for Ukrainian forces have been the underpinnings of their remarkable battlefield successes against a weakening, undersupplied and ill-prepared Russian military.

The European War on the Warground: David A. Andelman and the Europe-France Conference on Energy Policy, Oil, and Natural Gas

Editor’s Note: David A. Andelman, a contributor to CNN, twice winner of the Deadline Club Award, is a chevalier of the French Legion of Honor, author of “A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen” and blogs at Andelman Unleashed. He worked as a correspondent for The New York Times in Europe and Asia. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

He is trying to distract the nation from the obvious fact that he is losing badly on the battlefield and failing to achieve even scaled back objectives of his invasion.

It’s important to understand that the ability to keep going depends on a number of factors, from the availability of critical and affordable energy supplies for the winter to the popular will across a broad range of nations.

In the early hours of Friday in Brussels, European Union powers agreed a roadmap to control energy prices that have been surging on the heels of embargoes on Russian imports and the Kremlin cutting natural gas supplies at a whim.

These include an emergency cap on the benchmark European gas trading hub – the Dutch Title Transfer Facility – and permission for EU gas companies to create a cartel to buy gas on the international market.

While the French President said after the summit that European unity was maintained, he admitted that the European Commission needed to start working on a gas cap mechanism.

Still, divisions remain, with Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, skeptical of any price caps. Now energy ministers must work out details with a Germany concerned such caps would encourage higher consumption – a further burden on restricted supplies.

These divisions are all part of Putin’s fondest dream. The Kremlin thinks that the continent failing to agree on essentials is a key factor to achieving success.

Germany and France are already at loggerheads on many of these issues. There is a conference call to be held on Wednesday between the leaders of Germany and France.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/opinions/putin-prolonge-war-ukraine-winter-andelman/index.html

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the Chancellor of Italy, and the United Nations Secretary of State during a High-Energy War on Ukraine

And now a new government has taken power in Italy. Giorgia Meloni was sworn in Saturday as Italy’s first woman prime minister and has attempted to brush aside the post-fascist aura of her party. One of her far-right coalition partners meanwhile, has expressed deep appreciation for Putin.

Silvio Berlusconi, himself a four-time prime minister of Italy, was recorded at a gathering of his party loyalists, describing with glee the 20 bottles of vodka Putin sent to him together with “a very sweet letter” on his 86th birthday.

The other leading member of the ruling Italian coalition, Matteo Salvini, named Saturday as deputy prime minister, said during the campaign, “I would not want the sanctions [on Russia] to harm those who impose them more than those who are hit by them.”

At the same time, Poland and Hungary, longtime ultra-right-wing soulmates united against liberal policies of the EU that seemed calculated to reduce their influence, have now disagreed over Ukraine. Poland took offense at the sympathies of Hungary’s populist leader, Viktor Orban.

Meanwhile on Monday, the influential 30-member Congressional progressive caucus called on Biden to open talks with Russia on ending the conflict while its troops are still occupying vast stretches of the country and its missiles and drones are striking deep into the interior.

Hours later, caucus chair Mia Jacob, facing a firestorm of criticism, emailed reporters with a statement “clarifying” their remarks in support of Ukraine. The Secretary of State telephoned the Ukranian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba to thank him for America’s support.

Russia is desperate to get vital parts for production of high-tech weaponry that is stalling due to western sanctions and embargos.

Russian production of hypersonic missiles has all but ceased “due to the lack of necessary semi-conductors,” said the report. Plants that make anti-aircraft systems have stopped producing them, and Russia has reverted to Soviet-era defense stocks for replenishment. Thirty years ago, the Soviet era ended.

The property of a top Russian procurement agent was seized by the US on the eve of the report.

The Justice Department also announced charges against individuals and companies seeking to smuggle high-tech equipment into Russia in violation of sanctions.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/opinions/putin-prolonge-war-ukraine-winter-andelman/index.html

The Iran War: Gubarev, Malley, Kirby, and a U.S. Representative to the Russian Embassy in Donetsk

Still, there remain hardliners like Pavel Gubarev, Russia’s puppet leader in Donetsk, who voiced his real intention toward Ukrainians: “We aren’t coming to kill you, but to convince you. But if you don’t want to be convinced, we’ll kill you. We’ll kill as many as we have to: 1 million, 5 million, or exterminate all of you.”

The last shipment of weapons from Iran to Russia included about 450 drones, officials said, which the Russians have already used to deadly effect in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials said last week that they have shot down more than 300 Iranian drones.

The Iranian drones are known as a “loitering munition” because they are capable of circling for some time in an area identified as a potential target and only striking once an enemy asset is identified.

Ties with the US are likely to be further damaged by sending more Iranian weaponry to Russia. On Monday, the US envoy to Iran Rob Malley said the Biden administration is not going to “waste our time” on talks to revive the nuclear deal “if nothing’s going to happen.” The US imposed more sanctions on Iran after Tehran supported Russia in the Ukraine war and the death of Amini, an anti-government protester.

Earlier this month John Kirby, the communications coordinator at the National Security Council, said the presence of Iranian personnel was evidence of Tehran’s direct engagement in the conflict.

There are drones used to target civilians and infrastructure. Iran is lying and denying that it is happening, and we know it, because of all the evidence.

The US imposed sanctions on a provider of air transportation after it was found that it was involved in the shipment of Iranian drones to Russia. Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence said the US is ready to target producers and procurers who contribute to the program.

The Russian-Ukraine Black Sea Grain Initiative: A High-Energy Continuum Stream to End World War II

Russia said on Wednesday that it was returning a deal that allows the shipment of grain from Ukrainian ports through the Black Sea, ending days of uncertainty about the fate of an agreement that had offered hope to countries facing severe food shortages.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative, signed in July, allowed cargo ships to go through a sea corridor to Istanbul in order to restart Ukraine’s exports. There, officials from Russia, Turkey, and the United Nations would inspect the ships to make sure they weren’t used to distribute arms to the Ukrainians.

“The Russian Federation considers that the guarantees received at the moment appear sufficient, and resumes the implementation of the agreement,” the defense ministry said in a statement.

Global wheat prices soared immediate after Russia’s announcement and leaders around the world criticized Moscow’s decision and urged Russia to resume its participation, fearing global food shortages and even mass hunger in developing countries.

Turkey and the United Nations – brokers of the deal – pushed on with the initiative despite Russia’s suspension, continuing the inspection of dozens of grain ships already in Istanbul, and managing the safe travel of ships through the maritime humanitarian corridor set up in the Black Sea.

Moscow has also said that it wants to facilitate its own exports of grain and fertilizer and address the concerns of its trading partners who fear that, by dealing with Russia, they could violate Western sanctions. It was not immediately clear whether that Russian demand had been addressed.

“Based on our conversation with Mr. Putin yesterday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu called our National Defense Minister Hulusi Akar today to say that as of 12:00pm today the exports of grain will continue as they had,” said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a meeting of ruling party lawmakers in Ankara, referring to a call he had Tuesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russian and Ukrainian officials have been working to extend the agreement, which is due to expire on Nov. 19, in talks with Turkey, the United Nations, and other parties.

The direction of human history is at stake, says the historian Yuval Noah Harari, because a victory for Russia would lead to wars of aggression and invasions by another nation, something most nations had come to reject since the Second World War.

Much of what happens today far from the battlefields still has repercussions there. When oil-producing nations, led by Saudi Arabia, decided last month to slash production, the US accused the Saudis of helping Russia fund the war by boosting its oil revenues. (An accusation the Saudis deny).

Weapons supplies to Ukraine have become a source of tension with Israel, which has developed effective defense systems against incoming missiles. Israel refused to provide the Iron Dome and David’s Sling systems, citing its own strategic concerns, even though Ukraine asked for them.

Everyone is being affected by the war in Ukraine. The conflict has also sent fuel prices higher, contributing to a global explosion of inflation.

Families and individual lives are affected by higher prices. They are powerful when they come with a political punch. Inflation, worsened by the war, has put incumbent political leaders on the defensive in countless countries.