What do pandemic movers want from their political careers? A critical analysis of the 2020 presidential election results from the House and Senate maps, with an accompanying commentary by Justin Gest

To show his conclusion, he mapped the 2020 presidential vote into the House map from the recent census. When he did, he found that 226 of the current districts voted for Joe Biden in 2020, and only 209 voted for Trump.

Drawing state legislature districts is a real problem for American democracy, as reported by Jane Mayer in The New Yorker. Even if the Supreme Court restricts the ability of state courts, some states, like North Carolina, are likely to redraw their congressional maps. If you were to rank the threats to American democracy, gerrymandering would not be at the top of the list.

The movement inside the Republican party to not accept a loss in an election was at the top of the list. The influence the Senate gives to residents of small states, as well as the winner-take-all nature of the Electoral College, would follow after that.

Editor’s Note: Justin Gest is an associate professor at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government. He is the author of six books on the politics of immigration and demographic change including, most recently, “Majority Minority.” His own views are expressed here. There is more than one opinion on CNN.

One of the reasons Republicans have managed Electoral College victories and congressional majorities while losing the national popular vote so frequently over the last two decades is that Democrats are inefficiently distributed across the country’s electoral districts. Liberals in America have focused on their urban strongholds in order to drive up their margin in coastal metropoles at the expense of their chances in more competitive suburbs.

Outstanding questions persist. How many of the workers returned to their homes before they left? Were so many of the pandemic movers really Democrats? Have they even registered to vote in their new homes? Given their differences in values, would Democrats be willing to live in Republican-leaning regions?

The analysis of US Postal Service data shows that total internal migration only marginally increased in 2020. But given the initially dismal pandemic job market, it is likely that the people who did move were those who kept their jobs and worked remotely or those who lost their jobs and downsized to cheaper regions. More than one million permanent moves took place in December and March of 2020 when there was a swine flu.

According to the US Census Bureau, the country’s top 12 fastest-growing regions and those with the largest population increases since 2019 are almost exclusively in Arizona, Florida, Nevada and Texas – all of which feature hotly contested electoral contests every two years.

An Ipsos/Axios poll from last summer revealed that Democrats thinking about moving to another state are about twice as likely to consider blue states than red or swing states, and Republicans’ preference for red states over the alternatives is even more pronounced. This comes after decades of growing partisan segregation.

But this trend wouldn’t preclude urban Millennials from continuing to move to the suburbs of cities where they already live, many of which were already trending blue. There are rising voter registration in suburban counties of Georgia, Florida and New York.

To be clear, political headwinds also confront Democrats. The party recently voted out of power – in this case, Republicans in 2020 – historically wins seats in midterm elections, especially amidst inflationary pressures and a slowing economy. The Supreme Court decision to repeal abortion rights was seen as a benefit to the Republican Party by election observers. And so the pandemic’s demographic sorting effects may be offset.

Still, some of the tightest House electoral districts involve the suburbs of Albuquerque, Charlotte, Denver, Portland and Tucson. Sun Belt destinations like Georgia, Arizona and Nevada have some of the tightest Senate races. And the most competitive gubernatorial races are in Arizona, Nevada and Oregon. Forecasters don’t know what to expect.

The election analysts won’t be able to determine whether their margins were helped by mobility for years. It is similar to the coronaviruses, but it is nearly invisible.