The North Korean Missile Over Japan: Implications for Security and Security in the Middle East and the Pacific Ocean, as Revealed by the South
“North Korea has a bunch of missiles that are shorter range, and that wouldn’t go over Japan – but they have a small number of missiles that could make that journey,” he said.
The missile flew approximately 2,796 miles to the east, reached an altitude of 603 miles and a top speed of Mach 17 before it landed in the Pacific Ocean, according to the South’s joint chiefs. A body traveling at Mach 1 is traveling at the speed of sound. The speed of sound is twice that of Mach 2.
The South Korean government source said officials suspect it was a Hwasong-17, North Korea’s most advanced intercontinental ballistic missile that was first successfully tested on March 24.
Lewis said that since talks with Trump ended, the leader of North Korea laid out a program to develop missiles with nuclear capability.
However, Lewis emphasized, such risks are statistically low, especially that far out in the Pacific and that high above Japan as it flew overhead. Mostly, it’s an escalation simply because “it’s provocative to fire a missile over your neighbor.”
And if the test had failed, causing the missile to fall short, it could have endangered major population areas. The missile flew over Japan’s Tohoku region, according to Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, which is home to more than 8 million people.
Following North Korean missile launches, the US has had to ground planes. Several commercial jet pilots reported to have seen a North Korean missile re-enter the atmosphere as it flew toward the Sea of Japan.
Lewis said it felt like a violation of the Japanese’s sovereignty. “If Russia fired a missile over Florida, we would have a fit.”
Robert Ward, senior fellow for Japanese Security Studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, pointed to the multiple security threats faced by Japan, from an aggressive Russia to its north and China to its south.
North Korea’s latest missile launch: a challenge to South Korea, Japan and the United States, and its commitments to the defense of its allies
The North Korean people aren’t interested in talking. Jeffrey Lewis is the director of the East Asia Nonviolent Project at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.
Analysts noted that with Monday’s reports, North Korea broke six months of silence on its testing program. Images and an announcement about the tests were usually available the next day.
Joseph spoke about Tuesday’s flight path being a good chance for a better test.
The UN Security Council has repeatedly imposed sanctions on North Korea, as the country has continued to violate them since the last of three meetings with Donald Trump.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Thursday warned adversaries his nuclear forces are fully prepared for “actual war,” a day after the isolated country’s latest launch in a recent flurry of missile tests.
Following a 25-minute phone call with US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said North Korea’s latest launch posed “a grave challenge to peace and the stability of Japan, the region and the international community” and that Biden shared this view completely.
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, added that North Korea could be waiting until after China holds its Communist Party Congress in mid-October to “conduct an even more significant test.”
The test was seen as a direct challenge to South Korea’s effort to strengthen its alliance with the United States and improve ties with Japan, a former colonial ruler of Korea with longstanding historical disputes with Seoul. The missile flew about 2,800 miles, the longest distance ever traveled by a North Korean missile, officials in Tokyo and Seoul said.
The launch was called a dangerous and reckless decision by a spokeswoman for the White House. Unlike the South Korean government, she described the North Korean weapon as “a long-range ballistic missile.” The National Security Adviser spoke with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts on Tuesday to discuss a range of responses, including Washington’s ironclad commitments to the defense of its allies.
The five-year plan to beef up its missile and nuclear arsenals is intended to force the U.S. to make concessions, such as sanctions relief. Washington insists these will not happen.
President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in New York last month on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. The two leaders discussed security cooperation in the face of North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile threat. In recent weeks, the United States, Japan and South Korea have conducted their first trilateral anti-submarine and missile-tracking exercises since 2017.
The US military said it was aware of the North Korean launch, which “does not pose an immediate threat to US personnel or territory, or to our allies,” according to a statement from the US Indo-Pacific Command.
In South Korea, a new conservative government took office in May and has emphasized deterrence over diplomacy, raising fears of a potential cycle of escalation and counter-appliquement.
Kim is conducting at least seven missile tests in the next two weeks. Kim’s recent attire is indicative of his military strategy according to an expert.
Joint response to the North Korean launch of a suspected ICBM in the East Sea of Japan: The missiles are serious threats to the Korean peninsula and the international community
US Marines and Japan Air Self-Defense Force fighter jets flew over the Sea of Japan on Tuesday in a joint response to the North Korean launch.
The suspected ICBM was launched from the west coast of North Korea at around 7:39 a.m. local time, and flew about 750 kilometers (466 miles) before falling into the Sea of Japan, also known as the East Sea, east of the Korean Peninsula, Japan’s Defense Ministry said.
Wednesday’s launch included four ATACMS missiles, the statement by the South Korean Joint Chiefs said. Also known as Army Tactical Missile Systems, such weapons are surface-to-surface missiles that can fly around 200 miles (320 kilometers).
The launching was designed to show that the US and its allies have the military capabilities to respond to provocations by the North.
There is no plan in place to bring North Korea to the negotiating table and try to get rid of its nuclear weapons.
International leaders are watching for signs of a further increase in tension on the Korean peninsula, and a potential nuclear test by the nation, which would be a big problem for US President Joe Biden.
Then the Covid-19 pandemic hit, pushing North Korea further into isolation. The borders of the country were sealed off with diplomats and aid workers fleeing in droves. During this time, the number of missile launches also remained low – just four in 2020 and eight in 2021.
First, it could simply be the right time after the events of the last few years, with Kim declaring victory against Covid in August, and a new US administration in place that has focused on shows of unity with South Korea.
North Korean engineers and generals would want to make sure their toys work well, so I would think that they were very eager to make sure that did happen, since they have been unable to test for a long time.
They want the world to know that they exist and that their engineers work around the clock to develop nuclear weapons and delivery systems.
In a statement Thursday, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Pyongyang’s repeated launches “of ballistic missiles are a serious provocation that harms the peace and stability of not only the Korean Peninsula but also the international community.”
According to a CNN count, Wednesday was the 26th missile test of either cruise or ballistic missiles by the Kim regime, but analysts advised against reading too much into the reports as North Korean state media have previously overstated the success of such launches.
Lankov said that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may have also boosted Kim’s confidence because “it demonstrated that if you have nuclear weapons, you can have almost impunity. And if you don’t have nuclear weapons, you’re in trouble.”
The US and its allies have a lot of time to prepare for North Korea’s weapons tests even though there is little they can do.
“The Americans sent the Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier. South Koreans are launching these missiles, which are not necessarily working well,” said Lankov, referring to a South Korean missile on Wednesday that crashed right after launch. The impact of American aircraft carriers is something that has not yet been answered. Pretty much nothing.”
Observations on South Korea’s Nuclear Tactical Missile System: a Cold War Threat to the United States and to the Cold War
There is no widespread use of technology that facilitates economic and societal advances in the North, but also provides opportunities to glean information from the intel services of the US and its allies.
The hard intelligence problem in North Korea is the leader himself and how much of his actions are MzE MzEd by him.
Linda Thomas-Greenfield told CNN that the UN would put pressure on China and Russia to improve and enhance sanctions against North Korea.
According to the professor at the University of North Korean Studies, the law shows North Korea’s hopes to strengthen its relations with China and Russia.
An Army Tactical Missile System is fired during a joint training session between the United States and South Korea, on October 5 at an undisclosed location.
Since it last report of a missile launch in March, North Korea’s state-run media, KCNA, has made no mention of missile launches.
The most significant event on the Chinese political calendar this year is a meeting of the party elite where the leader of the country is expected to be appointed to a third term in power, making him the most powerful Chinese leader in decades.
Schuster said that Kim is too dependent on Chinese aid to keep his country afloat and he can’t afford to detract from the Party Congress. “So although China can’t dictate to him what he must do … he will not cause them problems.”
The North’s statement, released on the 77th birthday of its ruling Workers’ Party, is seen as an attempt to burnishes Kim’s image as a strong leader at home as he pushes to enlarge his weapons arsenal to wrest greater concessions from his enemies.
“Through seven times of launching drills of the tactical nuclear operation units, the actual war capabilities … of the nuclear combat forces ready to hit and wipe out the set objects at any location and any time were displayed to the full,” the North’s official Korean Central News Agency said.
The KCNA report said the recent drills, from September 25 to October 9, were designed to send a “strong military reaction warning to the enemies” and to verify and improve the country’s fighting capabilities.
Cheong Seong-Chang at the private Sejong Institute in South Korea said the missile launches marked the first time for North Korea to perform drills involving army units tasked with the operation of tactical nuclear weapons.
The public launch of a missile under an inland dam was the first of its kind by the North and it has previously tested missiles from a submarine.
Kim Dong-yub, a professor at Seoul’s University of North Korean Studies, said North Korea likely aims to diversify launch sites to make it difficult for its enemies to detect its missile liftoffs in advance and conduct preemptive strikes.
KCNA said when the weapon launched from the reservoir was flying above the sea target, North Korean authorities confirmed the reliability of the explosion of the missile’s warhead, apparently a dummy one, at the set altitude.
A lot of photos on the launches have been released by North Korea. One of them showed Kim and his wife Ri Sol Ju, both wearing ochre field jackets, frowning while covering their ears. Some observers say the image indicated Ri’s elevated political standing because it was likely the first time for her to observe a weapons launch with her husband.
“The South Korean military was aware of the situation in real time and maintained a readiness posture by closely cooperating with the US while strengthening surveillance and vigilance,” Kim said at a briefing on Thursday.
The units that launch the missiles are framed as the tests of the missiles, not the missiles themselves. Lewis said that this suggests that these systems are deployed.
Korean President Kim Jong-Unruh and Security Advisors for the US Army’s Camp Humphreys Experiment
Among the key military installations in South Korea is the US Army’s Camp Humphreys, the largest US military installation outside of the United States with a population of more than 36,000 US servicemembers, civilian workers, contractors and family members.
A professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul said Monday’s announcement was made for a number of reasons.
On the 77th anniversary of the ruling party, it is making explicit the nuclear threat behind its recent missile launches and providing a “patriotic headline” for domestic consumption.
He said that the KCNA report could be a sign of a nuclear test for the kind of tactical warhead that Kim visited in the field.
Kim further emphasized that Pyongyang will thoroughly monitor enemies’ military movements and “strongly take all military countermeasures” if needed, KCNA stated.
The US Navy’s Task Force 70 said that the aircraft carrier strike group of the US Navy took part in trilateral exercises with South Korean and Japanese units.
The commander of Task Force 70/Carrier Strike Group 5 said that his commitment to regional security was demonstrated by his ability to move the strike group to where it’s needed.
The Joint Staff of Japan said that the security environment around Japan was getting more severe, and that there were drills with the US Navy to strengthen the alliance.
The cruise missiles were able to fly for almost three hours above the sea before hitting their target, according to the report.
South Korea is progressing, but does not cooperate: North Korean missile tests have failed a live-fire test, and the South is planning a large-scale exercise
The details of the reports can’t be trusted, says an associate professor at Ewha Womans University. The Kim regime is often transparent about its weapons development goals, but also exaggerates strength and capabilities.
Kim Dong-yub, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said North Korean missile tests show a progressing program even if current strengths are exaggerated.
A ballistic missile is fired from a rocket or rockets and goes outside of Earth atmosphere and then glides in space before it lands on its target.
Cruise missiles have smaller payloads than ballistic missiles, so would require a smaller nuclear warhead than a missile designed to hit the mainland United States, such as an intercontinental ballistic missile.
He said that policymakers should not allow domestic politics and other challenges to prevent them from increasing military deterrence and economic sanctions on North Korea.
The North flew warplanes near the border with the South and the South held a live-fire artillery drill on Tuesday in a show of force.
The South said that North Korea launched a missile just hours after it had approached the no-fly zone.
The South Korean Air Force said in a statement that they were able to extend the large-scale exercises because of the failed test.
The South Korean government expects the sanctions will have an effect of blocking illegal fund transactions with these North Korean agencies and individuals in order to remind the domestic and international community of the risks of doing business with them.
The highest number of short-range missiles fired by the North in a single day, and a missile that landed close to South Korean waters, is according to the JCS.
The US and South Korea will conduct a large-scale training next week involving the F-35B stealth jet.
The UN nuclear watchdog “has no hope” of detecting a nuclear test of aggression from the South Korean peninsula in the Vigilant Storm
The head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog said Thursday that “everybody is holding its breath about a potential North Korean nuclear test,” which could provide confirmation of a program which is moving full steam ahead.
“We are following this very, very closely. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said they hope that it doesn’t happen, but that the indications go in another direction.
The two countries are conducting joint exercises called ‘Vigilant Storm’ which involve over 250 aircraft and thousands of service members.
The projectiles, including a suspected intercontinental ballistic missile, have triggered alerts, prompting some residents to seek shelter in two countries — South Korea and Japan — on both days.
It might be possible to put the entire US mainland in range of a North Korean nuclear warhead, but there are a lot of unknowns about the missile.
The tally of North Korean missile tests so far this year is at least 30 according to CNN, though the count of individual missiles is much higher.
“And the region where the North Korean missile fell,” he adds, “has many fishing boats catching squid,” suggesting that it could put South Koreans’ livelihoods at risk, and “pose existential threat to South Korea, if need be.”
Last week, it pointed to 12 days of “National Defense” field exercises. While the allies insist the drills are defensive in nature, they are aimed at defeating threats from North Korea.