What polarization does a politician really care about: Demography, abortion, immigration, and the outcome of the November biden midterm election
But another critical factor is that many of the voter groups that Democrats most rely upon are relatively less focused on the issues where public concerns about Biden’s performance are greatest, and more focused on issues where anxieties are greatest about the intentions of Republicans. According to a long-time GOP pollster, the blue team cares about abortion and democracy while the red team cares about crime and immigration. There is a bit of overlap on the inflation front. But we have become so polarized that the two different teams care about different things and are motivated by different things.”
Many voters view the Donald Trump-era Republicans as a threat to their rights and so Democrats are highly competitive this year. The question for November may be whether those considerations allow the Democratic candidates to levitating above negative assessments of the economy and Biden’s performance.
In a strategy memo to be released this week and shared with CNN, the Way to Win group argues that Democrats should rebut the Republican attacks by painting the broader GOP agenda as an extension of the assault on individual freedom and autonomy evident in the drive to restrict abortion. Democrats, the group writes, must “tie the salience of Roe being overturned to other issues at stake that are important to voters” and make the case that “Republicans have no plan to lower prices, but do have a plan to end Social Security and Medicare and raise taxes on millions of lower and middle-income Americans.”
The push and pull between these competing priorities have been demonstrated in several Senate debates in the first week of general election. During last week’s televised Arizona encounter, Republican challenger was very strong and kept Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly on the defensive by relentlessly linking him to Biden while the conversation was initially focused on border security. As the discussion centered on abortion and integrity, Masters struggled to explain his support for Trump and his belief that there is widespread fraud in 2020.
Do voters view this election as a choice or a referendum? If it is the latter, Biden has two years in office with Republicans in control of the House and Senate.
These results partly reflect the sheer intractability of our modern political divisions, which leaves fewer voters open to shifting allegiance no matter how unhappy they are with current conditions. Republicans have been hurt by nominating candidates in Senate races that voters view as unqualified, extreme or both.
The new snapshot of the divergence was offered by the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll. Asked what issue they considered most important in 2022, Republicans overwhelmingly chose inflation (52%) and immigration (18%). A comparable share of Democrats picked preserving democracy (32%), abortion (21%) and health care (15%). On one side of the aisle, there was inflation, immigration and democracy, while on the other side, there was abortion, health care and democracy. Voters with at least a four-year college degree leaned relatively more toward democracy and abortion; those without degrees (including Latinos) tended to stress inflation. (This survey did not include crime as an option, but it too has usually provoked the most concern from Republicans and non-college educated voters.)
Given these disparities, Democrats everywhere are stressing issues relating to rights and values, particularly abortion, but also warning about the threat to democracy posed by Trump and his movement. CNN reported recently that Democratic candidates have spent more money on abortion-related ads than Republicans over the last few months.
Biden’s Economic Legacy: How President Biden Has Known and Heard about the Problems of America and the Future of the American Economy
Biden’s speech made a case that when they come to full fruition, his policies will repair decades of declines in manufacturing and American industry. He argued that his signature bills passed during a legislative hot streak, including a bipartisan infrastructure measure, a law meant to ignite US semiconductor production and another that builds a clean energy economy, would bring jobs and prosperity. He said that the social spending measure he passed would make Americans more prosperous since it would cut long-term health care costs.
But those plant openings are mostly still in the future and only a few Democrats (such as Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Arizona Sen. Kelly, and Ohio Senate candidate Tim Ryan) are emphasizing those possibilities this year.
Democrats often stress legislation that they have passed, including the Inflation Reduction Act that allows Medicare to negotiate for lower drug prices, and that offers some relief on certain costs. According to the Democratic pollster, highlighting specific initiatives can let individual candidates overcome the negative overall judgement on Biden’s economic management. His main concern is that too many Democrats are sublimating any economic message while focusing preponderantly on abortion.
The Somos Votantes group, which mobilizes Latino voters for Democratic candidates, says that one of the keys to saving the party is that Republicans have not convinced voters that there is a specific answer to the economy. She said the concrete was not set yet after she had been door-to-door in Phoenix. “There is still a way to move people, connect with people.” Like Way to Win, her group stresses a message that tries to bridge the kitchen tables/values divide: Democrats are committed to providing people opportunities to help them meet their obligation to their families, while Republicans are focused on taking away rights.
Biden’s sharpened message, after all, has been delivered in Washington – not standing on stage next to Democratic candidates in the midst of the most heated races across the country.
But as things currently stand, despite the Democratic scramble and Biden’s own implicit acknowledgment that momentum has shifted back toward Republicans, White House officials see a path to bucking decades of history – and blunting a GOP wave.
Biden, in the last four days, has candidly summarized the pendulum swing of the last several months that drove the political narrative from a looming Republican wave, to Democratic momentum, to the current moment of Republicans again eying majorities in the House and Senate.
“The polls have been all over the place,” Biden said Monday in remarks at the Democratic National Committee. The Republicans are ahead. Democrats going in a direction. Republicans ahead. I think it will close because Democrats will be ahead in the closing days.
In a candid acknowledgment of a moment, Democrats once again scramble to find a message to undermine GOP momentum, areality amplified by differing views inside the party of where that message should actually land.
Fourteen days is enough to decide if that optimism is a mistake. It is the basis for Biden’s view as voters decide on two years of unified Democrat power in Washington.
Whether that will hold, particularly in a home stretch in which the small universe of undecided voters historically breaks toward the party out of power, is the definitive outstanding question.
“We’ve managed to suck ourselves back into our own circular firing squad,” one Democratic campaign official said. It wasn’t as bad as people thought it was, and it’s not as bad as some are acting now. It could be if we don’t pull together.
The weight of that history, not to mention the acute headwinds created by economic unease that continues to rank first among voter concerns in poll after poll, aren’t lost on Biden or his advisers.
That will start to change in the days ahead, advisers say, with continued insistence that he will hit the road for bigger campaign events after weeks of intentionally smaller scale official events designed to highlight legislative accomplishments.
The Road Towards a Frozen House: The Unexpected Progress of President Biden’s 2019 State of the State after the Supreme Court Seiberg vs. Wade
The gas prices have been on a downward trajectory for the last two weeks, and the GDP report for the third quarter will show robust growth after two quarters of contraction.
Despite significant legislative achievements and a fast recovery from the downturn, the deficit on the economy won’t flip within 14 days.
As a result of the close correlation between gas prices and Democratic electoral prospects over the course of the last several months, they see an opportunity to win over undecided voters or fight to a draw in the closing days.
It is one that officials say that has been laid bare in a particularly acute manner by the Republicans in recent weeks, whether on abortion, popular programs like Social Security and Medicare, or proposals to eliminate individual provisions enacted by Biden that polls in the favor of Democrats.
Biden has spent the last several weeks attempting to highlight the individual issues officials see as key motivators to base voters they need to turn out in a big way in order to counter GOP enthusiasm, whether that is on abortion rights or his actions to cancel student loans.
The burst of optimism among Democrats after a late summer string of major legislative wins and energy driven by the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Roe vs. Wade was viewed by many inside the West Wing as overly optimistic.
Eleven days out from the election, Republicans are targeting deep blue territory that would enable them to build a wave that could translate into a significant House majority. CNN’s Harry Enten stated Thursday that the Republicans only need a net gain of five seats to flip the chamber and that they could win enough seats in NY alone to do that.
But Democratic Senate candidates in battleground races are all polling with narrow leads or within striking distance. Even if a break away from Democrats endangers many of the party’s biggest new stars, the path to hold onto the Senate is still there.
The President was on the road Thursday – not in one of the most pivotal Senate swing states – but in New York to tout semiconductor manufacturing. The fact that he showed up in a state he won by more than 20 points two years ago shows how his low approval ratings limit his capacity to help his party climb out of a hole.
The President rode into his day on the back of some unexpected good news – the economy bounced back in the last quarter at an annualized rate of 2.6%, according to initial estimates. Biden held up the figures as “further evidence that your economic recovery is continuing to power forward.”
The State of the Election: Predictions for the Future of the Democrat-Republican Debt Problem in Arizona, and What Next in Washington
The election environment facing Democrats is so testing they are in danger of losing their House of Representatives control as their hopes of clinging onto the Senate appear to ebb.
In Arizona, a race where Mark Kelly was in the lead, now seems to be narrowing. Democrats were rattled by a shaky debate performance by Fetterman, who is still facing issues after a stroke. The commonwealth represents the party’s best chance to pick up a seat and could be critical to their hopes of holding control of the 50-50 Senate, where Vice President Kamala Harris casts the tie-breaking vote. Schumer, speaking with New York Gov. Hochul and Biden in a conversation, said he was worried about the Georgia race, but thought the Pennsylvania debate did not hurt us.
The loss of either chamber could be a disaster for the President, who is bracing for many Republican investigations into his administration, his handling of the US withdraw from Afghanistan and his son’s business affairs.
It is too early to properly judge the state of the race due to the lack of certainty in polling. The history of first-term presidents getting a heavy election loss may be coming back to haunt them after the Supreme Court overturned a landmark court decision this summer, according to Biden’s speech.
His speech demonstrated the political impossibility of highlighting undeniably positive aspects of the economy – including hopeful GDP growth figures released Thursday and a historically low jobless rate – when inflation is raging at near 40-year highs.
Biden’s warnings of fierce political fights with Republicans over entitlements and government spending in a possible showdown over raising the debt ceiling, meanwhile, served as a preview for what may be acrimonious years to come in Washington if political control is split between the parties.
“They’re going to shut down the government, refuse to pay America’s bills for the first time in American history to put America in default… unless we yield to their demands to cut Social Security and Medicare.”
“Nothing will create more chaos or do more damage to the American economy,” the President said, admitting that Democrats always charge Social Security is at risk in elections but also arguing that proposals by Republican Sens. Rick Scott of Florida and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin this time really do threaten the retirement program.
But the issue is that all of those measures – if they succeed – will not unspool in time to be felt in this election. If Biden runs for reelection they could help, but for now they are aspirational.
In all but one state, the economy and inflation was the most important issue affecting their vote. The number of people who exercised their right to abortion more than doubled in each state. Democrats had hoped outrage over the Supreme Court decision would have neutralized their economic liabilities heading into the November 8 election.
In New York the race for governor is suddenly competitive, since the GOP hasn’t won a statewide election in two decades. Biden was with Hochul on Thursday in Syracuse, which is also home to a competitive House race.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/28/politics/biden-blue-states-midterm-election-analysis/index.html
Inflation and the American Dream – The Treasury Secretary admits he is a scapegoat, but criticizes his actions
The problem, however, is that the President was conjuring a vision of an economy that many Americans do not recognize. Democrats could be doomed if the economy and lived experience are not in balance.
But she admitted, “Inflation is very high – it’s unacceptably high and Americans feel that every day,” in the interview broadcast on “Erin Burnett OutFront.”
When a voter’s income is not keeping up with their costs, especially for the staples of everyday life like meat, bread, eggs and gasoline, they are bound to look for scapegoats. Biden is the president in power.
Biden blames the invasion ofUkraine by Putin and the supply chain disruption caused by it on the rise in living costs, along with other outside factors. Republicans blame Biden for flushing the system with billions of dollars in cash and sending the economy into an overheating cycle.
In an interview with Phil Mattingly on CNN on Thursday, the Treasury Secretary advised patience since many of the policies the administration has taken to boost the economy will take time to come on line.
People are struggling with inflation. Biden said he grew up in a place where his dad told him at the end of the month if he didn’t cover his expenses, they were in real trouble.
His comment showed that Biden understands acutely the problem that appears increasingly likely to doom Democrats this election season. There is nothing that he can do about it in the short term.