The crisis in Ukraine is coming to an end: The air raid sirens and the eruptions of Russian attacks are a warning to the Kremlin

In Ukrainian cities far away from the country’s battlefields, the air raid sirens and the eruptions of Russian attacks shattered the relative calm.

Several people were killed and power was knocked out in pockets of the country as a result of the assault. Giles said they were an indication of the threat from Russia. “For many months now, the Russian objective has been to destroy Ukraine rather than possess it.”

The bombardment, like the early days of the initial invasion of Russia, was wide and long and confirmed that the conflict in Ukraine, which had been going on for months, is rearing its head once more as winter nears.

The war is close to an unpredictable new phase for the first time. Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, said that this is the third, fourth, or fifth war they have been watching.

The strikes followed weeks of Ukrainian ground gains and began two days after a huge explosion damaged the Kerch bridge, the only crossing between the annexed Crimean peninsula and Russia. That blast, which was used by the Kremlin as a justification for Monday’s onslaught, bruised the Russian psyche and handed Ukraine a significant strategic boost.

As winter draws closer the stakes of the war have been raised again. Giles said that Russia would like to keep it up. But the Ukrainian successes of recent weeks have sent a direct message to the Kremlin, too. “They are able to do things that take us by surprise, so let’s get used to it,” Giles said.

Russia is struggling on the ground and has failed to achieve supremacy in the air, but Monday’s attacks may have achieved one goal – sending a signal of strength towards the growing list of Putin’s internal critics.

In the south Kherson region, Ukrainian troops hoisted the country’s flag above a building. Ukrainian officials say they have liberated hundreds of settlements since their counter-offensive began.

Russia said Thursday its troops would help evacuate residents of Kherson to other areas, after Ukraine made gains in the region. The announcement came shortly after the head of the Moscow-backed administration in Kherson appealed to the Kremlin for help moving residents out of harm’s way, in the latest indication that Russian forces were struggling in the face of Ukrainian advances.

These counter-offensives have shifted the momentum of the war and disproved a suggestion, built up in the West and in Russia during the summer, that while Ukraine could stoutly defend territory, it lacked the ability to seize ground.

The Russians hope to avoid a collapse in their frontline before winter sets in, according to a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“If they can get to Christmas with the frontline looking roughly as it is, that’s a huge success for the Russians given how botched this has been since February.”

The Kremlin appointed a new overall commander of Russia’s invasion as they faced growing setbacks. The pace of the Ukrainian counter-offensives makes it unlikely that Gen. Sergey Stalin will be able to lead his forces back onto the front foot before the end of the year.

Ukrainian troops are focused primarily on pushing Russian forces eastwards, having crossed the Oskil River in late September, with Moscow likely preparing to defend the cities of Starobilsk and Svatove in the Luhansk region, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Landing a major blow in Donbas would send another powerful signal, and Ukraine will be eager to improve on its gains before temperatures plummet on the battlefield, and the full impact of rising energy prices is felt around Europe.

There are many reasons why Ukraine gets things done quickly. “The winter energy crisis in Europe, and energy infrastructure and power being destroyed in Ukraine itself, is always going to be a test of resilience for Ukraine and its Western backers.”

NATO leaders have vowed to stand behind Ukraine regardless of how long the war lasts, but several European countries that rely heavily on Russian energy are facing a crisis of living expenses which, without signs of Ukrainian progress on the battlefield, could endanger public support.

After Russian missiles disrupted much of the country’s electricity supply on Monday and Tuesday, Ukrenergo says it has been able to provide power to Kyiv and central regions. The Prime Minister of Ukraine asked people to reduce their energy usage during peak hours in order to fix damaged equipment.

While estimating the military reserves of either army is not straightforward, Western assessments suggest Moscow may not have the capacity to keep it up, since it appears that Russia’s aerial bombardment will form a recurrent pattern.

Russian commanders on the ground know that their supplies are running out, according to the UK’s spy chief.

“Russia’s use of its limited supply of precision weapons in this role may deprive Putin of options to disrupt ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensives,” the ISW assessed.

The ability of Ukrainians to intercept Russian cruise missiles has risen since the beginning of the invasion in February, according to a military expert with the Royal United Services Institute.

The Russian don’t have enough precision munitions to maintain the kind of high-tempo missile assault that will be reserved for shows of extreme outrage.

The impact of such an intervention in terms of pure manpower would be limited; Belarus has around 45,000 active duty troops, which would not significantly bolster Russia’s reserves. It would threaten another assault on the northern flank of the country.

Giles said that the reopening of a northern front would be another challenge for Ukraine. He said it would give Russia a new path into the region that has been regained by Ukraine.

Now Zelensky will hope for more supplies in the short-term as he seeks to drive home those gains. The leader wanted to highlight that half of the missiles and drones launched atUkraine in a second wave of strikes on Tuesday were brought down.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that Ukraine needed “more” systems to better halt missile attacks, ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels.

“These air defense systems are making a difference because many of the incoming missiles [this week] were actually shot down by the Ukrainian air defense systems provided by NATO Allies,” he said.

Ukraine “badly needed” modern systems such as the IRIS-T that arrived this week from Germany and the NASAMS expected from the United States, Bronk said.

The Russian War in the Cold War and the Tests of the EU–Australian War on Crime, and a Challenge for the Security and Security of Europe

Giles said there are a number of things Russia could do to make the war personal and to force the governments in Europe to withdraw their support for Ukraine.

The coming weeks are crucial for the battlefield as well as for Europe and around the globe, experts say. Giles said, “where Putin goes next depends on how the rest of the world is responding.” “Russia’s attitude is shaped by the failure of Western countries to confront and deter it.”

Since February, the European Union has named 1,236 people and 155 companies for sanctions, freezing their assets and blocking their access to the bloc. It has banned the trade of products in over 1,000 categories. It has put in place a near-total embargo on Russian oil. About one-third of the bloc’s exports to Russia by value and two-thirds of imports have been banned.

Some goods and sectors are still exempt. A cursory look at just a few items will show how hard some nations and private industry work to protect their sectors, as well as the compromises the European Union has made to maintain consensus.

The Belgians avoided dealing in Russian diamonds. The Greeks have unimpeded shipping of Russian oil. France and several other nations still import Russian uranium for nuclear power generation.

Russia has returned to the UN brokered deal to ship grain through the Black Sea. The global wheat price spiked when Russia suspended participation over the weekend, causing fresh concerns over food shortages.

Since suspending its participation in the deal over the weekend, Russia had ceased involvement in the inspections, raising questions over whether it would block further shipments. A total of 15 ships previously authorized under the agreement departed from Ukraine on Monday and Tuesday; none had been scheduled for Wednesday.

“The Russian Federation considers that the guarantees received at the moment appear sufficient, and resumes the implementation of the agreement,” the defense ministry said in a statement.

The United Nations General Assembly Report on the Russian-Ukraine Agreement on Grain and Feed-Organic Policy in the Light of Russian-Prussian Correspondence

Global wheat prices soared immediate after Russia’s announcement and leaders around the world criticized Moscow’s decision and urged Russia to resume its participation, fearing global food shortages and even mass hunger in developing countries.

The United Nations’ representative to the initiative said in a post that he welcomed Russia’s decision and was grateful for Turkish facilitation.

Moscow has also said that it wants to facilitate its own exports of grain and fertilizer and address the concerns of its trading partners who fear that, by dealing with Russia, they could violate Western sanctions. It was not immediately clear whether that Russian demand had been addressed.

“Based on our conversation with Mr. Putin yesterday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu called our National Defense Minister Hulusi Akar today to say that as of 12:00pm today the exports of grain will continue as they had,” said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a meeting of ruling party lawmakers in Ankara, referring to a call he had Tuesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The agreement between Russian and Ukrainian expires in Nov. 19 and Russia suspended the deal on the advice of the U.N.